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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


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32 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF shows highs in the low to mid 30s in Seattle from Wednesday - Saturday.

Hopefully sub freezing at my place! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Hopefully sub freezing at my place! 

If this run verifies you’d have a hard time getting out of the 20s for a few days. Even here it showed a couple sub 30 highs. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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43 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

On this run... the precip is all to the south later next week but this has the feeling of something that could evolve into a major overrunning snowstorm on future runs 

Or it could be a February 2014 special for Eugene! 

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-precip_12hr_inch-3131200.png

And Redmond!!! Eerily similar to February 2014. 35” in 3 days. It was unreal. 

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I was hoping for the ECMWF suite of models to be better,, but this is insane.  Interesting to note the UKMET picked up on it one run sooner.  I think this could verify around -15 on the 850s over SEA.  Going to be fun to watch.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS day 8.5... 

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-3260800.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-3174400.png

Maybe a poor man's 1899?

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

I'm a bit skeptical of a major PNW cold wave with such weak support from the Pacific block. I'm sure it's happened before, but has to be pretty rare.

Yeah... its pretty typical for models to be too aggressive with cold air in the mid range.   Even if it has the 500mb pattern correct it will probably moderate some.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I'm a bit skeptical of a major PNW cold wave with such weak support from the Pacific block. I'm sure it's happened before, but has to be pretty rare.

It's all about the -NAO driven sideways trough back digging into us.  One thing I have been skeptical about is the ECMWF and GEM wanting to progress the bottom part of the block inland so fast with a Kona low there in combo with the sideways trough over southern Canada. Pretty hard to ignore this kind of model consensus at this time frame.  We'll see.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, JBolin said:

Anybody (Rob, Jim, Phil, etc) have any idea what type of pattern elicited the nearly 4' of snow in San Francisco in (I believe) 1886?

Is that 4 feet or 4 inches?  I know we had a great event here in mid January 1886.  Could have been a southern extension of that.  Probably big time offshore blocking.  -NAO usually keeps cold from getting very south over the West.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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28 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:
With dewpoints in the negative values, IF we had moisture/snow with wet bulb cooling could you imagine how cold PDX could potentially get? We're talking single digits if we had a strong enough system with lots of moisture and strong east wind.

Everything would have to line up just right to give PDX single digits. Hasn’t happened since 1989. But maybe. If a snowy system managed to make it in the snow would also be very dry powder, not wet snow.

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

It's all about the -NAO driven sideways trough back digging into us.  One thing I have been skeptical about is the ECMWF and GEM wanting to progress the bottom part of the block inland so fast with a Kona low there in combo with the sideways trough over southern Canada. Pretty hard to ignore this kind of model consensus at this time frame.  We'll see.

I'm sure it's possible... unusual pattern. Do you know of any historical examples where a far west-based -NAO worked out like that? Without a significant block on the Pacific side?

A forum for the end of the world.

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6 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Pretty massive improvement from the previous run on highs/lows for SEA.

 

ecmwf-operational-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax_ecmwf-2526400.png

ecmwf-operational-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax_ecmwf-2483200.png

A high of....27? 

Stealth edit...this was clarified. 

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Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

Everything would have to line up just right to give PDX single digits. Hasn’t happened since 1989. But maybe. If a snowy system managed to make it in the snow would also be very dry powder, not wet snow.

It’s been that long since single digit DPs in Portland? We’ve had multiple times over the past couple years with DPs in the -10 to 5 degrees range. October 2019 even had -4 DP...had a DP of -10 in late February 2019. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Just now, hawkstwelve said:

Uh oh... Where's Kayla?

Did she freeze already?

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Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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Just now, TacomaWaWx said:

It’s been that long since single digit DPs in Portland? We’ve had multiple times over the past couple years with DPs in the -10 to 5 degrees range. October 2019 even had -4 DP...had a DP of -10 in late February 2019. 

Oh my bad, I thought Rob was talking about single digit temps. Lol

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2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I'm sure it's possible... unusual pattern. Do you know of any historical examples where a far west-based -NAO worked out like that? Without a significant block on the Pacific side?

Not for sure.  The analogs have been pointing to late January 1980.  That was a really solid, but mostly dry cold snap.  Dropped to 11 IMBY on that one.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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19 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

How much snow did you end up with in January?

36" at my house from 1 storm. We are at about 40% of seasonal average now. What is weird is the 30 - 60 day break between storms this season. Its like a continuation of our summer time ridge for the second winter in a row. 

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Just now, Front Ranger said:

That's when the run ends. In the morning. So not the actual high for the day :)

Oh dangit. 

I knew that too...

Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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1 minute ago, AlTahoe said:

36" at my house from 1 storm. We are at about 40% of seasonal average now. What is weird is the 30 - 60 day break between storms this season. Its like a continuation of our summer time ridge for the second winter in a row. 

So the models that showed 300+ inches were wrong?  😀

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

So the models that showed 300+ inches were wrong?  😀

Those GFS while fun to look at are always really far off. Usually 20-33% of the depicted totals is what happens. Mammoth ended up with about 100" from the storm so 33%. GFS is always 3F to cold as well. 

 

Capture.JPG

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12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Is that 4 feet or 4 inches?  I know we had a great event here in mid January 1886.  Could have been a southern extension of that.  Probably big time offshore blocking.  -NAO usually keeps cold from getting very south over the West.

Sorry, 4" 

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15 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

36" at my house from 1 storm. We are at about 40% of seasonal average now. What is weird is the 30 - 60 day break between storms this season. Its like a continuation of our summer time ridge for the second winter in a row. 

I can't imagine 36 inches in one storm. That is how much I got for the whole month, and there were a few times where it snowed hard.  At least it seemed like it snowed hard.  If I ever see a 36 inch snowstorm, I may redefine what I think heavy snow is.  

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No action for here on the EC. Maybe a sub-40F high tho? This location is so bad for Arctic cold & snow most years. 2-25-19 was so fukkin' rare.

1613174400-GZ8LF3WBw7g.png

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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Just now, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

I can't imagine 36 inches in one storm. That is how much I got for the whole month, and there were a few times where it snowed hard.  At least it seemed like it snowed hard.  If I ever see a 36 inch snowstorm, I may redefine what I think heavy snow is.  

I think we had 40 inches here in a 24-hour period in February 2019.    Its not real fun.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

I think we had 40 inches here in a 24-hour period in February 2019.    Its not real fun.   

That would be amazing to watch, but a lot of work to clear.  I can only imagine the berm on my driveway after such a big snow.  And the berms are always compact and icy, even if it is a relatively dry snow.

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