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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


BLI snowman

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Arctic fronts in Oklahoma were pretty common. The vast majority had no accumulating snow. 12/17/16 had a tremendous arctic front in NE Oklahoma. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, Snowdrift said:

Dec 1990 and Dec 2008 had vicious winds.

I think December 2008 was the last arctic front with snow in the Willamette valley. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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15 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Feb 2019 was completely overwhelming here. We had 140" of snow and one big rainstorm right in the middle of it all. 

The plow would berm you in 3-5 times a day. Brutal. 

Rain in the middle cut down on the snow, but probably made it pretty bad to move.  We had about a foot a few weeks ago, and it turned to rain before I could get to it due to my job, and my snowblower was not very effective, couldn't get a grip on the driveway, which has a bit of a slope to it.  

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I think December 2008 was the last arctic front with snow in the Willamette valley. 

Well... Maybe November 2010, but amounts were mostly under 1” down here. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 hours ago, Requiem said:

Wow, ya'll get your cold, I get my strong easterlies, all is right with this run 🥰

You really love wind. 😂

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9 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yeah, there definitely was actually. That was a pretty crazy AK block. Barrow hit 32 on the 23rd! Just led to more of a bleed in from the PV in Central Canada that eventually migrated eastward and spread out longitudinally.

12221983.PNG.5450d6d8ea17607598f8dd493774a8cc.PNG

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ncepreanal/data/1983/12/reanal_1983122400.gif

12241983.PNG.1597efd698bac974c1df5acb34f46d9a.PNG

I am guessing that the low to the SW in the bottom right frame was the one that was supposed to produce a major snowstorm for the PNW for Christmas Eve night and Christmas morning.   Low went too far to the North and it rained.  Brutal, especially because it was late Christmas Eve when it was supposed to be heavy snow.  Just an awful feeling when I heard the pitter patter of rain on the roof that night!

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Arctic fronts in Oklahoma were pretty common. The vast majority had no accumulating snow. 12/17/16 had a tremendous arctic front in NE Oklahoma. 

I experienced one at Ft Sill in December 1996. Their weather is so changeable. It felt like the temperature dropped 30 degrees in a few minutes.

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I really want to go all-in given the favorable trends across all model camps, but given the fickle pattern and really unusual evolution to get cold, I just can't quite do it yet. I think if models show this cold to very cold solution by Saturday 00z I will be fully and completely in. 100% confidence. Until then. Cautiously optimistic! C'MON!!!!
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That 12z ECMWF run was top tier for cold advection out there. Amazing how fragile this progression is..just the tiniest of changes to TPV structure in AK/Yukon 48hrs out could make the difference between a full fledged arctic assault and a complete miss.

The inflection point appears to be D2, sometime on Sunday. If we hold on until 00z runs Sunday, should be good, as volatility likely decreases substantially at that point.

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2 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

North Whatcom County can be brutal during a true arctic blast.  Nothing like 70MPH winds with a temp in the teens.  And if there is snow, they get huge snowdrifts.

My grandparents experienced the blizzard of 1950 up there. They were impressed, and they both grew up in North Dakota.

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4 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Does CDA get the brutal wind chills?  I have friends that will be in CDA next Tuesday through Wednesday.

At times they do. It depends on a number of factors. Dec 2008 had really strong winds. 2010-11 had two blizzard warnings. CdA sits on the Rathdrum Prairie in the middle of the Purcell Trench. Winds in the past have gusted over 60 mph out of the NNE during arctic outbreaks.

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10 minutes ago, JBolin said:

Whatever happened to that kid from PDX who had a hard-on for wind?

Yo that’s me haha 

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

I'm a bit skeptical of a major PNW cold wave with such weak support from the Pacific block. I'm sure it's happened before, but has to be pretty rare.

It’s also one of the strongest -NAO/Baffin Bay blocks on record. The fact it’s retrograding at such a high amplitude could compensate for the lackadaisical Pacific.

If the block were prograding, I’d agree with you. In this case, it’s retrograding.

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1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

I am guessing that the low to the SW in the bottom right frame was the one that was supposed to produce a major snowstorm for the PNW for Christmas Eve night and Christmas morning.   Low went too far to the North and it rained.  Brutal, especially because it was late Christmas Eve when it was supposed to be heavy snow.  Just an awful feeling when I heard the pitter patter of rain on the roof that night!

The jet undercut it on the 24th into the 25th, yes.

Of course that low actually did produce a significant snowfall for western OR. Widespread 3-6" from Medford north to Salem. White Christmas for Tiger!

What screwed Portland and Seattle with that wasn't the temps so much as the historic mountain wave event that transpired with the high pressure to the east and the Pacific low to the west. That was the event that famously produced 100+mph winds in Enumclaw, with 20 degree temps! By the time the precip began to accumulate through the dry air, it had warmed aloft and produced rain and freezing rain, before changing back to wet snow on the 26th.

Rob also asked earlier what the lowest dewpoints on the westside were and 1983 may be your winner. SEA had a dewpoint of -22 on the 24th. Virga alert! Pretty incredible pattern.

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5 hours ago, JBolin said:

Anybody (Rob, Jim, Phil, etc) have any idea what type of pattern elicited the nearly 4" of snow in San Francisco in (I believe) 1886?

I’ll check to be sure, but iirc that was -NPO/-NAO.

Edit: Nope. -WPO/-PNA.

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3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

The jet undercut it on the 24th into the 25th, yes.

Of course that low actually did produce a significant snowfall for western OR. Widespread 3-6" from Medford north to Salem. White Christmas for Tiger!

What screwed Portland and Seattle with that wasn't the temps so much as the historic mountain wave event that transpired with the high pressure to the east and the Pacific low to the west. That was the event that famously produced 100+mph winds in Enumclaw, with 20 degree temps! By the time the precip began to accumulate through the dry air, it had warmed aloft and produced rain and freezing rain, before changing back to wet snow on the 26th.

Rob also asked earlier what the lowest dewpoints on the westside were and 1983 may be your winner. SEA had a dewpoint of -22 on the 24th. Virga alert! Pretty incredible pattern.

Thanks, I didn't know exactly what screwed things up.  Glad though that parts of Oregon got the White Christmas though.

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9 minutes ago, Snowdrift said:

At times they do. It depends on a number of factors. Dec 2008 had really strong winds. 2010-11 had two blizzard warnings. CdA sits on the Rathdrum Prairie in the middle of the Purcell Trench. Winds in the past have gusted over 60 mph out of the NNE during arctic outbreaks.

Thanks. I will watch it closely for my friends.  Spokane NWS should have a good handle on it.

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6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

The jet undercut it on the 24th into the 25th, yes.

Of course that low actually did produce a significant snowfall for western OR. Widespread 3-6" from Medford north to Salem. White Christmas for Tiger!

What screwed Portland and Seattle with that wasn't the temps so much as the historic mountain wave event that transpired with the high pressure to the east and the Pacific low to the west. That was the event that famously produced 100+mph winds in Enumclaw, with 20 degree temps! By the time the precip began to accumulate through the dry air, it had warmed aloft and produced rain and freezing rain, before changing back to wet snow on the 26th.

Rob also asked earlier what the lowest dewpoints on the westside were and 1983 may be your winner. SEA had a dewpoint of -22 on the 24th. Virga alert! Pretty incredible pattern.

Those CCGs are a thing of beauty for here.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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2 minutes ago, JBolin said:

Seriously?

 

100% serious 😅

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

I'm sure it's possible... unusual pattern. Do you know of any historical examples where a far west-based -NAO worked out like that? Without a significant block on the Pacific side?

January 1969 was -NAO dominant. I think it was more common in the 19th century though.

Things were very different back then in terms of teleconnections and wave train seasonality. Was very common to get large blocks over Hudson Bay/NE Canada suppressing TPVs all the way to SW BC. Very suppressed jet, low heights from W-US/Canada, and out into the Pacific. Doesn’t really happen that way anymore. 

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Just now, Requiem said:

100% serious 😅

And hopefully our 5th south valley regular poster by the fall.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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18 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

North Whatcom County can be brutal during a true arctic blast.  Nothing like 70MPH winds with a temp in the teens.  And if there is snow, they get huge snowdrifts.

We had one last January, but it was dry and no snow on the ground. Temp dropped by about 20° pretty quick right around noon and I briefly touched single digits overnight. Winds weren't super intense but very persistent. I think the outflow lasted about a week straight with no let-up, if I recall correctly.

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6 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Thanks. I will watch it closely for my friends.  Spokane NWS should have a good handle on it.

During a decent front, a normal forecast is NNE winds 20-30 mph with gusts over 50 mph. This thing is evolving so quickly that a lot can change between now and Tuesday. NWS Spokane does a good job. I always read the forecast discussions.

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1 hour ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

I can't imagine 36 inches in one storm. That is how much I got for the whole month, and there were a few times where it snowed hard.  At least it seemed like it snowed hard.  If I ever see a 36 inch snowstorm, I may redefine what I think heavy snow is.  

Had that much in 2010 and 2016..the former dropped 9.1” here in just 2 hours. Was like a summer downpour but snow.

It was heavy enough that the snow hitting the ground produced some weird audio effects, like leaves in a forest rustling in the wind or a distant waterfall. Was really something.

 

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3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Hope the NAM does not start a new trend...🥵

Like Jim said, the 84 hour NAM is incredibly worthless for temps and overdoes CAA to an extreme level. A moderating trend towards Day 2-3 is a given with any NAM progression. The 06z NAM was sending arctic air south of the border a day and a half before anything else.

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Just now, Phil said:

Had that much in 2010 and 2016..the former dropped 9.1” in 2 hours here. Was like a summer downpour but snow.

It was heavy enough that the snow hitting the ground produces some weird audio effects, like leaves in a forest rustling in the wind. Was really something.

 

A sheet of snow...polar + tropical at the same time

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