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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


BLI snowman

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21 minutes ago, Snowdrift said:

My grandparents experienced the blizzard of 1950 up there. They were impressed, and they both grew up in North Dakota.

I've always been curious exactly what that storm would have felt like. The farm my grandfather grew up on is just down the road from me, and he would have been about 14 in 1950. Everytime I drive by, I realize how totally exposed he would have been to the outflow. Right on the border with a direct line to the mouth of the Fraser Canyon, without a tree or hill in sight. I'm guessing that house got absolutely pummeled.

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Winter of 2016-2017 was the wettest ever recorded in the Sierra and almost broke me. Jan - Feb 2017 we had 190" of snow at lake level along with around 20" of rain. 38" total precip in that 60 day span. It would snow 24-48" then rain 3-6", flash freeze.. Rinse and repeat for 2 months. Probably the closest setup to 1862 we will see. We had two different thunderstorm outbreaks in Feb with 8' of snow on the ground. 

My streets would turn into canals cause the water had nowhere to go. Then it would all freeze. Some peoples cars were frozen in place up to the door handles. 

Second picture is me on the roof shoveling it off after the fire department drove around on the loud speaker warning of imminent roof collapses. I had the Honda snow blower on the side yard with the old craftsman in the front yard. 

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8 minutes ago, Phil said:

Had that much in 2010 and 2016..the former dropped 9.1” here in just 2 hours. Was like a summer downpour but snow.

It was heavy enough that the snow hitting the ground produced some weird audio effects, like leaves in a forest rustling in the wind or a distant waterfall. Was really something.

 

I know that sound you are speaking of and it is hard to describe. We receive post frontal convective bands that stream up the Sierra after a strong cold front has gone through that will drop 5-8" an hour snowfall rates and it makes a different noise than 1-3" snowfall rates for sure. 

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22 minutes ago, Snowdrift said:

I experienced one at Ft Sill in December 1996. Their weather is so changeable. It felt like the temperature dropped 30 degrees in a few minutes.

I was in Oregon in December 2008, but the arctic front they had come through NE Oklahoma in Dec 08' was absolutely insane. Bartlesville had a 74/14 day and a 14/8 day the following day. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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13 minutes ago, Snowdrift said:

A sheet of snow...polar + tropical at the same time

I’ll never forget 2010. Snow *depth* reached 52”. Was literally up to my neck.

That branch in picture #3 is normally high enough that you could hang from it without your feet touching the ground. Like 7.5 feet up.

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GFS druncle better/worse regionally ML:

better +250

worse -220

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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I was thirteen living in Maryland when 1979 snow storm.  The deepest snow drifts I have ever experienced.  I was one years old when my family experienced the 1966 DC blizzard.  My parents said they had five foot snow drifts.  

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9 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Biggest since you got the chains for the mower.

Hopefully the snow will be so deep that it will overpower my plow and I will have to borrow the neighbors tractor! This was 2019 before I had the plow attachment, borrowed the neighbors tractor to plow, here I am driving it on the main road back to their place. Good times! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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25 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Hope the NAM does not start a new trend...🥵

As I say...the NAM almost has to trend warmer, because it has a terrible cold bias as it gets later in the run.  As the time frame narrows it trends warmer almost always.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said:

image.thumb.jpeg.43317b1aec7e6f46d68e065e7b015a3c.jpegWeather so much better here

Hope you are collecting weather data for the models while you are up there! 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

That was actually in February 1887. It was cold here.

That month was a beast in Seattle.  A one foot snowstorm followed by serious cold.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 hours ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Yeah, moisture didn't start showing up until a few days before the event and intially it was headed to Southern Oregon but eventually trended north at the last minute. 3 consecutive days of snow for PDX. Thu, Fri and Sat if I remember correctly. 

Yep, I remember we were on the northern edge of most of those systems. The last second north trend on the models worked out nicely for us. One of the coldest snow events in recent memory. I think the starting temp was in the teens for the first system. 

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Just now, hawkstwelve said:

Total snow through Monday AM... 

A hair more for Snohomish County northward vs. 12z.

 

gfs-deterministic-washington-total_snow_10to1-2796400.png

Weird, Randy in the blue again. 

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Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

That was actually in February 1887. It was cold here.

Mean of 500mb anomalies for all San Francisco snowfalls. No major surprises, I suppose.

 

 

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6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That month was a beast in Seattle.  A one foot snowstorm followed by serious cold.

Indeed. Portland had a 16/10 day on 2/3 with a snowstorm. Interestingly that had been an extremely boring, mild, and snowless winter up through late January. So even in the cold 19th century that progression was very possible.

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18z GFS will be colder than 12z from the looks of it.

Yet again, more of TPV is squeezed out of the Yukon very early in run. Apparent by 36hrs in.

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Definitely nice to see this runs looking good too. Just need to keep the good runs going the next couple days to keep building confidence. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Nice Fraser outflow and then a northerly gradient to bring the low level cold air south.  Nice!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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