Timmy Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Way more of a n-s gradient, much warmer 850s in Oregon at hour 140. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 INCOMING!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 The PV and the chances for serious cold are much better on this runs vs the 12z. Big potential. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 And some kind of funky snowstorm about to begin on Thursday as moisture moves straight through the ridge offshore. Buyer beware. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Pacific jet is a bit stronger this run. Could shorten the duration of the cold. Or it could make for a s**toad of snowfall. Lol Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, TT-SEA said: And some kind of funky snowstorm about to begin on Thursday as moisture moves straight through the ridge offshore. Buyer beware. Yeah kinda seems like a detail that may not be there at all next run considering it wasn’t there before either. Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Looks like the dickbag for the south valley. 1 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Yeah, that’s some serious upper level cold along/east of the Cascades. 1 Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Western Washington snowstorm on Thursday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 5, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 That trough axis scooting another 50 miles to the west would make all the difference this run. Would be a lot of snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, wxmet said: Western Washington snowstorm on Thursday. Yeah and this is at 4 PM 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 I'm betting this is holding back the cold air too much based on how close hat PV goes. Even so...respectable cold. Way better than the 12z in a lot of ways. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: Yeah kinda seems like a detail that may not be there at all next run considering it wasn’t there before either. The theme is very good though. You seem way too cautious here. The trends are obvious. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, snow_wizard said: I'm betting this is holding back the cold air too much based on how close hat PV goes. Even so...respectable cold. Way better than the 12z in a lot of ways. I think that little snow event on Thursday may not pan out and the cold stays entrenched longer. Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Portland has the Gorge to keep things chilly but I’d ideally like to see the cold sink a bit further south to give the rest of the valley some fun. 1 1 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, snow_wizard said: The theme is very good though. You seem way too cautious here. The trends are obvious. lol cautions is usually a good thing in these situations. Things are definitely looking really good now though...my confidence is building with every good run we’re seeing. Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 I'm thinking the 18z ensemble will be quite cold. The models are coming into reasonable agreement today. Major back digging of cold pushed by the crazy NAO block. 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said: I think that little snow event on Thursday may not pan out and the cold stays entrenched longer. The ECMWF has a snow event next Wednesday with an Arctic front. Will be interesting to see if it trends more amplified like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prairiedog Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 On Dec 8, 2013 PDX hit 12. It warmed up a bit but Feb 7, '14 it got cold again and snowed. Had about 6". That's been my last good cold and snow together. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 If these temps and snow verifies, It's going to cause problems. I see a lot of stranded people or forever to get home! 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: I think that little snow event on Thursday may not pan out and the cold stays entrenched longer. Yeah....that detail will have to be worked out. Arctic front snow is the best bet. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 5, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Sleet storm! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 And another storm on Saturday incase you didn’t get enough snow on Thursday 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, nwsnow said: Region wide event but hopefully snow instead of ice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Ouch, that’s a major ice storm pattern for someone in E-Canada/US. Not sure if anyone has watched those documentaries on the 1998/1999 ice storms in Canada, but verbatim the 18z GFS is close to a worst case scenario. 2 Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlTahoe Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Last GFS run showed no storms for Cali but the Euro did. Looks like the GFS is starting to cave to the Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 In general it's simply amazing how far south everything is going to be pushed by that block over the next 10 days. PV very far south for a long time. We still have a shot at some REAL cold here. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 I could definitely live with the latest gfs verifying. We will see if we have a trend towards moderation and snowier overrunning solutions or colder drier more entrenched solutions. 1 Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Here's 7PM Friday. 48 hours now with temps below 30 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, wxmet said: And another storm on Saturday incase you didn’t get enough snow on Thursday That's more like it! Somebody is going to get pounded hard late next week. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, Phil said: That’s a major ice storm pattern for someone in E-Canada/US. Not sure if anyone has watched those documentaries on the 1998/1999 ice storms in Canada, but verbatim the 18z GFS is close to a worst case. Yea, just your average hell-scape of HTL towers collapsing under the immense weight of ice, trees strewn everywhere caked in ice, travel severely impacted and freezing temps with no power. No thanks 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: In general it's simply amazing how far south everything is going to be pushed by that block over the next 10 days. PV very far south for a long time. We still have a shot at some REAL cold here. Define 'REAL cold' for me... Sub 30 highs? Cause right now, it looks like we're in for some 33-37 highs, which I consider pretty darn cold for early/mid February! 1 Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 So far snowing for 24 hours by 204hr on the GFS 18z. Are we NYC now?? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Not too worried a low out near HR180 but yeah too much warm air advection here with that track. Would be some pretty crazy event though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 3 hours ago, GHweatherChris said: I have a feeling the 18Z GFS is going to be in rehab today. Oops? 2 1 2 1 Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 56 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I was in Oregon in December 2008, but the arctic front they had come through NE Oklahoma in Dec 08' was absolutely insane. Bartlesville had a 74/14 day and a 14/8 day the following day. That's a cold front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 6 minutes ago, nwsnow said: Not too worried a low out near HR180 but yeah too much warm air advection here with that track. Would be some pretty crazy event though. Isentropic snows are the best snows. Sometimes you have to toe the line. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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