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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


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The PV and the chances for serious cold are much better on this runs vs the 12z.  Big potential.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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And some kind of funky snowstorm about to begin on Thursday as moisture moves straight through the ridge offshore.   Buyer beware. 

 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Pacific jet is a bit stronger this run. Could shorten the duration of the cold. Or it could make for a s**toad of snowfall. Lol

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

And some kind of funky snowstorm about to begin on Thursday as moisture moves straight through the ridge offshore.   Buyer beware. 

 

Yeah kinda seems like a detail that may not be there at all next run considering it wasn’t there before either. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Looks like the dickbag for the south valley.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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I'm betting this is holding back the cold air too much based on how close hat PV goes.  Even so...respectable cold.  Way better than the 12z in a lot of ways.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Yeah kinda seems like a detail that may not be there at all next run considering it wasn’t there before either. 

The theme is very good though.  You seem way too cautious here.  The trends are obvious.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

I'm betting this is holding back the cold air too much based on how close hat PV goes.  Even so...respectable cold.  Way better than the 12z in a lot of ways.

I think that little snow event on Thursday may not pan out and the cold stays entrenched longer. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Portland has the Gorge to keep things chilly but I’d ideally like to see the cold sink a bit further south to give the rest of the valley some fun.

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Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

The theme is very good though.  You seem way too cautious here.  The trends are obvious.

lol cautions is usually a good thing in these situations. Things are definitely looking really good now though...my confidence is building with every good run we’re seeing. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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I'm thinking the 18z ensemble will be quite cold.  The models are coming into reasonable agreement today.  Major back digging of cold pushed by the crazy NAO block.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I think that little snow event on Thursday may not pan out and the cold stays entrenched longer. 

The ECMWF has a snow event next Wednesday with an Arctic front. Will be interesting to see if it trends more amplified like the GFS.

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I think that little snow event on Thursday may not pan out and the cold stays entrenched longer. 

Yeah....that detail will have to be worked out.  Arctic front snow is the best bet.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Ouch, that’s a major ice storm pattern for someone in E-Canada/US. Not sure if anyone has watched those documentaries on the 1998/1999 ice storms in Canada, but verbatim the 18z GFS is close to a worst case scenario.

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In general it's simply amazing how far south everything is going to be pushed by that block over the next 10 days.  PV very far south for a long time. We still have a shot at some REAL cold here.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I could definitely live with the latest gfs verifying. We will see if we have a trend towards moderation and snowier overrunning solutions or colder drier more entrenched solutions. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Just now, Phil said:

That’s a major ice storm pattern for someone in E-Canada/US. Not sure if anyone has watched those documentaries on the 1998/1999 ice storms in Canada, but verbatim the 18z GFS is close to a worst case.

Yea, just your average hell-scape of HTL towers collapsing under the immense weight of ice, trees strewn everywhere caked in ice, travel severely impacted and freezing temps with no power. 

No thanks

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

In general it's simply amazing how far south everything is going to be pushed by that block over the next 10 days.  PV very far south for a long time. We still have a shot at some REAL cold here.

Define 'REAL cold' for me...

Sub 30 highs? Cause right now, it looks like we're in for some 33-37 highs, which I consider pretty darn cold for early/mid February!

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Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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3 hours ago, GHweatherChris said:

I have a feeling the 18Z GFS is going to be in rehab today.

Oops?

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6 minutes ago, nwsnow said:

Not too worried a low out near HR180 but yeah too much warm air advection here with that track. Would be some pretty crazy event though. 

Isentropic snows are the best snows. Sometimes you have to toe the line.

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