Omegaraptor Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Pretty great run but hopefully we can move that Arctic air just a little farther south and drop those 850 temps over Portland to give us snow rather than ice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JW8 Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Looks like the OPER is right in line with the mean through 2/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Should I post this? From Wednesday to Saturday 4 PM 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 It’s almost 60°F and I’m under a Winter Storm Watch. Ma’ Nature is pissed about something. 2 1 1 Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, wxmet said: Isentropic snows are the best snows. Sometimes you have toe the line. Yeah we will see...shorter range is what’s important at this point getting the cold air first. The snow details after the original cold air intrusion being almost a week out will probably change multiple times the next few days. We will see if we go cold and dry or moderate with a big snow to end it. 1 Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, wxmet said: Isentropic snows are the best snows. Sometimes you have toe the line. True, just feels like a bit too close for comfort sometimes. Regardless, I think any low vaguely to the west should unleash the gorge to enough of an extent to keep things here interesting. 22F in PDX with the low to the NW. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 I take back my last post! From Wednesday to Saturday 10 PM 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, Kolk1604 said: Should I post this? From Wednesday to Saturday 4 PM NO, do not post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, wxmet said: Isentropic snows are the best snows. Sometimes you have toe the line. Yep, sometimes you got to do a little dancing with the devil. Put on your dancin' shoes boy and girls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said: Should I post this? From Wednesday to Saturday 4 PM Definitely not. Wait until the snowstorm finishes on the model before posting Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Now we just need to figure out how to get events like this inside 48 hrs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 7 minutes ago, Phil said: Oops? It worked!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Look at the gorge holding the line for PDX. Nice Temp gradient from PDX to SLE. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, wxmet said: Now we just need to figure out how to get events like this inside 48 hrs. Exactly, the believable range!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, Skagit Weather said: Definitely not. Wait until the snowstorm finishes on the model before posting lol wasn't expecting that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Had to drive into the office... What did I miss? 18z any good? Olympia gets NUKED! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlTahoe Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 7 minutes ago, Snowdrift said: That's a cold front Denver set their record 2 day temp drop in Dec 2008 as well. 76F temp drop from 58F to -18F. Wow 1 12/14/2008 76 58 -18 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, AlTahoe said: Denver set their record 2 day temp drop in Dec 2008 as well. 76F temp drop from 58F to -18F. Wow 1 12/14/2008 76 58 -18 Sheesh...front range craziness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 That would be an insane snowstorm for the South Sound. Olympia gets 36"! 1 Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulb/eugene Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 I look at it this way...12km resolution model may overestimate amount of cold air getting into Columbia Basin but at same time underestimate flow through the gorge and thus may be colder in PDX down to SLE/EUG 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: lol wasn't expecting that. If it ever stops... Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, Skagit Weather said: That would be an insane snowstorm for the South Sound. Olympia gets 36"! With temps in the teens and 20s. Looks like we finally make it to freezing sometime on Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, paulb/eugene said: I look at it this way...12km resolution model may overestimate amount of cold air getting into Columbia Basin but at same time underestimate flow through the gorge and thus may be colder in PDX down to SLE/EUG This statement is not untrue, just ask Rob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just down, down, down on the latest 850 graph. Mean down to 11.2 so far. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 This run is so good Tim is in lurk mode struggling to find a bad map 3 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said: I look at it this way...12km resolution model may overestimate amount of cold air getting into Columbia Basin but at same time underestimate flow through the gorge and thus may be colder in PDX down to SLE/EUG Need a CCG to get cold enough here. Doesn’t look to be in the cards...yet. That might change. Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 18z GEFS looks significantly improved. TPV further west in Canada, with less of it left behind in Alaska. Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 18z GEFS Day 6.5 850s The Dalles -15c already. 12z GEFS was -12.6c. C'MON!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 18z GEFS is drastically improved with the entire wave train over 06z and 12z. Night and day. 3 Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Looks like 850s bottom out at -11.2 on the operational and -14.6 on the control on the 18z. Works for me! Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 So when do you use the Kuchera ratio? 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 The EURO and now GFS are both showing a couple systems coming onshore later next week. The EURO takes them into Southern Oregon and Northern California. While the GFS takes them further North and Oregon and Washington get in on the action. Going to be fun watching this all play out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, wxmet said: This run is so good Tim is in lurk mode struggling to find a bad map He'll find one, he's the best there's ever been. 4 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Unfortunately hour two hundred and whatever is a mess. #timposting "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Wow. I almost prematurely forecasmed.... BUT not yet. If 00z is cold I will become confident. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: So when do you use the Kuchera ratio? Never 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JW8 Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Looks like 850s bottom out at -11.2 on the operational and -14.6 on the control on the 18z. Works for me! Any chance you recall where SEA bottomed out in Feb 19? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 6 minutes ago, wxmet said: This run is so good Tim is in lurk mode struggling to find a bad map Make sure the dates aren't from 2004-2005 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 I think it's time for me to strap on my athletic cup, things are going way too good. 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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