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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


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Good grief!  the 18z GFS shows 9 consecutive highs of 35 or below for SEA. Undoubtedly snow plays into that.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Good grief!  The 18z GFS shows 9 consecutive highs of 35 or below for SEA. Undoubtedly snow plays into that.

 

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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6 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said:

That should significantly slow down arrival of arctic air in Oregon but could reap benefits later if trough can dig south a bit more.  

Amazing the 18z shows it digging better than the 12z.  This could be huge if we hit the just right balance.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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22 minutes ago, wxmet said:

18z ECMWF looks more or less the same as 12z thru 90hr. Too bad we don’t get a full run of the model with 18z.

18z actually an improvement over 12z. Lol. Squeezes even more of the TPV out of Alaska/Yukon. Amazing how different it looks versus 00z last night.

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24 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

In fact, a pretty good run to run delta for lower heights over BC and higher heights over AK.

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_dprog-2828800.png

I think that’s the 06z run.

Edit: Nevermind, just misread the header.

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I screwed up big time...I told my wife. However we might be okay since she is NOT onboard...Her exact words were “you have said this 3 times now over the last few weeks, I am not falling for this again, it’s not happening” 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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3 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

I am nervous about the 00z tonight.  If it is anything close to 18z then the confidence is going way up for me.

I think the inflection point is sometime this weekend. Probably either 12z Sunday morning or 00z in the evening, IMO.

Make it thru Sunday evening and I think confidence increases quadratically.

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2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I screwed up big time...I told my wife. However we might be okay since she is NOT onboard...Her exact words were “you have said this 3 times now over the last few weeks, I am not falling for this again, it’s not happening” 

Noooooooo. You have to take it back. Call it a false alarm.

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2 minutes ago, wxmet said:

I agree. If we can hold through the weekend then we’re set.

Caught me before the edit. I meant to write Sunday.

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1 minute ago, Andrew M said:

Someone go blow up the Rockies just in case

Flatiron might take issue with that. 

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6 minutes ago, Phil said:

I think the inflection point is sometime this weekend. Either 12z Sunday morning or 00z in the evening.

Yeah... it becomes pretty obvious by that point.    The next focus will become undercutting and overrunning systems sneaking through the ridge.    That seems like its a pretty fragile situation too! 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... it becomes pretty obvious by that point.    The next focus will become undercutting and overrunning systems sneaking through the ridge.    That seems like its a pretty fragile situation too! 

An undercutting low about Coos Bay that sits and stalls for 48 hours sounds good to me.  

I am sure you want that same low at the OR/WA border.

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Anybody got a good putter?

A43A22DC-06CB-4958-A0E1-6104B7055C22.jpeg

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Bought several of these from a retired met.   Let me know if you're interested.  I can work out doable low interest financing with you as well.  For a little more I can get you a two-seater for your significant other so she knows for sure what you're doing at midnight, 1am, 2am, 3am, 4am and all through the day.  Reassure her that your mortgage will be paid each month.  There is a new model coming out that will include your own secret connection directly to the NWS and top of the line North Korea weather services.

model riding chair.png

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0.42” over the past 24 hours. 2.55” on the month. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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5 minutes ago, iFred said:

Its fragile and probably wont happen. Give up. Now. Save yourself the grief and start looking forward to weather that normal people care about. We should get our first 70 as early as the end of this month.

Of course, no amount of giving up will keep a true weenie from peeking at the next run.  🤪

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18z EPS is colder for every critical time period than the 12z.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I was in Oregon in December 2008, but the arctic front they had come through NE Oklahoma in Dec 08' was absolutely insane. Bartlesville had a 74/14 day and a 14/8 day the following day. 

That remains my favorite Arctic front I've experienced here. Upper 50s in the afternoon, around 0 by midnight.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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2 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

I pour bowling water on my patio to combat green stuff and weeds in cracks.  So far it’s been working 

Wish Mother Nature would help but it just gets worse most years.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Got a chance to catch up on the craziness today.. there were 5-6 pages for me to thru since I last checked 5 hours ago so figured the 18z must've delivered bigly. Wow, that was such an amazing run! Would love to see this bring inside 48-72 hours. 

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