paulb/eugene Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said: In fact, a pretty good run to run delta for lower heights over BC and higher heights over AK. That should significantly slow down arrival of arctic air in Oregon but could reap benefits later if trough can dig south a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Good grief! the 18z GFS shows 9 consecutive highs of 35 or below for SEA. Undoubtedly snow plays into that. 3 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christensen87 Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: Good grief! the 18z GFS shows 9 consecutive highs of 35 or below for SEA. Undoubtedly snow plays into that. Cold east winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Good grief! The 18z GFS shows 9 consecutive highs of 35 or below for SEA. Undoubtedly snow plays into that. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, Christensen87 said: Cold east winds. North winds :). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 6 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said: That should significantly slow down arrival of arctic air in Oregon but could reap benefits later if trough can dig south a bit more. Amazing the 18z shows it digging better than the 12z. This could be huge if we hit the just right balance. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 22 minutes ago, wxmet said: 18z ECMWF looks more or less the same as 12z thru 90hr. Too bad we don’t get a full run of the model with 18z. 18z actually an improvement over 12z. Lol. Squeezes even more of the TPV out of Alaska/Yukon. Amazing how different it looks versus 00z last night. 2 Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 24 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: In fact, a pretty good run to run delta for lower heights over BC and higher heights over AK. I think that’s the 06z run. Edit: Nevermind, just misread the header. Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, Phil said: 18z actually an improvement over 12z. Lol. Squeezes even more of the TPV out of Alaska/Yukon. Amazing how different it looks versus 00z last night. I am nervous about the 00z tonight. If it is anything close to 18z then the confidence is going way up for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 I screwed up big time...I told my wife. However we might be okay since she is NOT onboard...Her exact words were “you have said this 3 times now over the last few weeks, I am not falling for this again, it’s not happening” 1 3 1 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 3 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said: I am nervous about the 00z tonight. If it is anything close to 18z then the confidence is going way up for me. I think the inflection point is sometime this weekend. Probably either 12z Sunday morning or 00z in the evening, IMO. Make it thru Sunday evening and I think confidence increases quadratically. 1 1 Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, Phil said: I think the inflection point is sometime this weekend. Either 12z Saturday morning or 00z in the evening. I agree. If we can hold through the weekend then we’re set. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsktkr Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Don't worry fellas.....I got this. As long as I post this image every day until the event we will get our old-school arctic blast!! You can count on me. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bueryan Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 It makes it more fun when you read people excitedly posting, who just last night, let us all know that they were "done", and "taking a break", or "walking away for a while"... sure you are 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, MossMan said: I screwed up big time...I told my wife. However we might be okay since she is NOT onboard...Her exact words were “you have said this 3 times now over the last few weeks, I am not falling for this again, it’s not happening” Noooooooo. You have to take it back. Call it a false alarm. 1 Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, wxmet said: I agree. If we can hold through the weekend then we’re set. Caught me before the edit. I meant to write Sunday. 1 Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Yet another SuperBowl Sunday with imminent snow/cold being a real possibility! 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew M Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Too many busted snow maps the last two years have me very nervous, fingers crossed the models hold steady on this bad boy. Someone go blow up the Rockies just in case 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, Andrew M said: Someone go blow up the Rockies just in case Flatiron might take issue with that. 1 2 Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulb/eugene Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Sorry I’ve been holding back Aeroflot flight data from being incorporated into your Американское Модель. Your 00z run will have some surprises I’m afraid 2 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, MossMan said: Yet another SuperBowl Sunday with imminent snow/cold being a real possibility! I was just thinking that! Nachos....then snow and cold. I would call that a good week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, paulb/eugene said: Sorry I’ve been holding back Aeroflot flight data from being incorporated into your Американское Модель. Your 00z run will have some surprises I’m afraid I see the plane took you to the other side of the world !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 6 minutes ago, Phil said: I think the inflection point is sometime this weekend. Either 12z Sunday morning or 00z in the evening. Yeah... it becomes pretty obvious by that point. The next focus will become undercutting and overrunning systems sneaking through the ridge. That seems like its a pretty fragile situation too! **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Nobody likes a quitter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: Yeah... it becomes pretty obvious by that point. The next focus will become undercutting and overrunning systems sneaking through the ridge. That seems like its a pretty fragile situation too! An undercutting low about Coos Bay that sits and stalls for 48 hours sounds good to me. I am sure you want that same low at the OR/WA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Anybody got a good putter? 2 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prairiedog Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Bought several of these from a retired met. Let me know if you're interested. I can work out doable low interest financing with you as well. For a little more I can get you a two-seater for your significant other so she knows for sure what you're doing at midnight, 1am, 2am, 3am, 4am and all through the day. Reassure her that your mortgage will be paid each month. There is a new model coming out that will include your own secret connection directly to the NWS and top of the line North Korea weather services. 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 9 more model run cycles to get through with Sunday evenings 00z runs. Can we make it? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 0.42” over the past 24 hours. 2.55” on the month. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 5 minutes ago, iFred said: Its fragile and probably wont happen. Give up. Now. Save yourself the grief and start looking forward to weather that normal people care about. We should get our first 70 as early as the end of this month. Of course, no amount of giving up will keep a true weenie from peeking at the next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 @SouthHillFrostyYeah, I prefer the Op 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Places like Fargo, Bismarck, and Duluth go below zero tonight and likely remain that way until at least Friday. 2 2 A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 18z EPS is colder for every critical time period than the 12z. 6 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 22 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Anybody got a good putter? I pour bowling water on my patio to combat green stuff and weeds in cracks. So far it’s been working Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I was in Oregon in December 2008, but the arctic front they had come through NE Oklahoma in Dec 08' was absolutely insane. Bartlesville had a 74/14 day and a 14/8 day the following day. That remains my favorite Arctic front I've experienced here. Upper 50s in the afternoon, around 0 by midnight. 1 A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 18Z EPS... 4 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, Jginmartini said: I pour bowling water on my patio to combat green stuff and weeds in cracks. So far it’s been working Wish Mother Nature would help but it just gets worse most years. 1 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Central Canadian block pushing it west...wacky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 My weeds are really starting to pop...Let’s bury these suckers under a foot or three of snow!! 6 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Got a chance to catch up on the craziness today.. there were 5-6 pages for me to thru since I last checked 5 hours ago so figured the 18z must've delivered bigly. Wow, that was such an amazing run! Would love to see this bring inside 48-72 hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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