Phil Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Small step back probably. More separation between AK vortex and TPV in Canada. Assuming my theory on that is correct, which it might not be. Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 00z GFS Day 1 (Past 4 runs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, Phil said: Small step back probably? More separation between AK vortex and TPV in Canada. Devastating trends! 1 2 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 I see no notable differences between 18z and 00z out to 45hrs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Day 2 (Past 4 runs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Lately the 00z and 12z GFS runs have consistently been pulling back compared to the 6z and 18z. The 4 run trend GIFS have been clearly oscillating back and forth each run. It would be pretty noteworthy if that stopped with the 00z tonight. 2 1 Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Heights rising in the AK vortex by 60hr possibly beginning to phase with the TPV lobe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Triple 8's in Bellingham.....chilly. 2 2 Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Day 3 (Past 4 runs) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 That oscillating back and forth each run is pretty obvious here. The 6z and 18z don't have as much real time data as the 0z and 12z. Seems that effect might be magnified with so many fewer flights right now. 3 Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, wxmet said: Heights rising in the AK vortex by 60hr possibly beginning to phase with the TPV lobe. Should be better than 12z but a minor step back from 18z. Just a bit more TPV hanging back over Alaska this time. 1 Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 The more information the model has the more it realizes arctic air cannot penetrate the PNW lowlands. 1 1 3 1 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just checked Bozeman to see what my son (and Kayla) might be facing..... Looks like fun 2 1 Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, Phil said: Should be better than 12z but a minor step back from 18z. Just a bit more TPV hanging back over Alaska this time. Yeah so far it is looking like just a minor step back in terms of how cold the airmass is. And of course 00z could have an entirely different approach as to moisture, how much of it and where. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, Phil said: Should be better than 12z but a minor step back from 18z. Just a bit more TPV hanging back over Alaska this time. I see the same through 81hr. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Devastating trends! 2 minutes ago, wxmet said: I see the same through 81hr. Just seems like things are delayed right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Cold air at 850mb seems to be penetrating further south on this run through 87hr. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 conflicting rapports! 2 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Day 4 (Past 4 runs) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 50 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said: Every time someone says cold or snow, we have to take a shot. Or later every time Rob says c'mon. You forgot nachos, then cold and snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 More snow coming down for the W. Puget Sound low lands at 108hr 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Not a fan of how much lower heights are over Alaska at day 4.5. Block looks much less organized. Vodka cold air still managed to get very close though at face value. 1 1 Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 11 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said: Triple 8's in Bellingham.....chilly. What does the Euro say? If Goofus was accurate, we would have hit -4˚F last winter. 1 It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 NAO block almost merged with Alaska ridge 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said: What does the Euro say? If Goofus was accurate, we would have hit -4˚F last winter. Still pretty chilly, but not quite 8 2 Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Day 5 (Past 4 runs) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said: 850s still only a degree or two warmer through Wednesday AM. Very close. Probably the result of a less expansive and further east TPV on this run. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 We want our Arctic air and we want it -NAO. 1 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Day 5 850s 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 AL is coming back! 1 1 A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 A more realistic 00Z GFS snowfall map (high resolution). The WB versions are usually way overstated for the GFS for some reason. This is through Wednesday evening. 1 1 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said: Still pretty chilly, but not quite 8 Probably a lot more realistic, though I sure hope all those goose eggs in the snow department don't verify. 3 It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Things look colder by 129hr at 850mb. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Is it strange I'm reminded of February 2014? 1 1 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Day 5.5 850s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 1056mb high in the B.C. oriented NW to SE is pretty impressive 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Massive conflicted reports tonight!! And Tim’s snow map sucks, I like the other one better. 1 2 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Not sure what it means for the rest of the run... but there are huge differences between the 12Z and 00Z runs by Thursday. 12Z on top and new 00Z on the bottom... 1 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Day 6 (Past 4 runs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: Not sure what it means for the rest of the run... but there are huge differences between the 12Z and 00Z runs by Thursday. 12Z on top and new 00Z on the bottom... Looks more boxed in now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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