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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


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Small step back probably. More separation between AK vortex and TPV in Canada. Assuming my theory on that is correct, which it might not be.

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Small step back probably? More separation between AK vortex and TPV in Canada.

Devastating trends!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Lately the 00z and 12z GFS runs have consistently been pulling back compared to the 6z and 18z. The 4 run trend GIFS have been clearly oscillating back and forth each run.

It would be pretty noteworthy if that stopped with the 00z tonight.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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That oscillating back and forth each run is pretty obvious here.

The 6z and 18z don't have as much real time data as the 0z and 12z. Seems that effect might be magnified with so many fewer flights right now.

 

trend-gfs-2021020600-f063.500h_anom.na (1).gif

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, wxmet said:

Heights rising in the AK vortex by 60hr possibly beginning to phase with the TPV lobe.

Should be better than 12z but a minor step back from 18z. Just a bit more TPV hanging back over Alaska this time.

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The more information the model has the more it realizes arctic air cannot penetrate the PNW lowlands.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, Phil said:

Should be better than 12z but a minor step back from 18z. Just a bit more TPV hanging back over Alaska this time.

Yeah so far it is looking like just a minor step back in terms of how cold the airmass is. And of course 00z could have an entirely different approach as to moisture, how much of it and where.

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Not a fan of how much lower heights are over Alaska at day 4.5. Block looks much less organized. Vodka cold air still managed to get very close though at face value.

 

19a1171c-f178-401c-b5e0-49eee926d9ea.gif

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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A more realistic 00Z GFS snowfall map (high resolution). The WB versions are usually way overstated for the GFS for some reason.    This is through Wednesday evening. 

snodpc_acc.us_nw (8).png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Is it strange I'm reminded of February 2014?

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(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Not sure what it means for the rest of the run... but there are huge differences between the 12Z and 00Z runs by Thursday.

12Z on top and new 00Z on the bottom...

 

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-3088000 (1).png

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-3088000.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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