TT-SEA Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just enough blocking to get the cold air into the PNW and the flood gates open from the west. 2 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtep Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Yeah... and this bad boy is racing in from the west to throw in some moisture. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Boom ! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 6, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 February 12 delivers again! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Unfortunately for places south of Portland... that is mostly rain on Thursday afternoon. 1 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Wow! This has serious potential to be great. I guess -NAO can be good for us! 4 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Ohhhh but plenty of snow on Thursday night... 2 1 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Boom ! So much for the big blast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: Unfortunately for places south of Portland... that is mostly rain on Thursday afternoon. 1 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just so I can disappointed when it doesn't happen this time, what's the coldest 850mb temps we've had west of the Cascades recently? Like last ten years or so. 1 Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Boom ! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Day 7 Holy COW mega snow pattern 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Great trend with the late week system. I don't think the north shifts are done. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 4 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Strangely enough I prefer last run— but next run will be different! Still nice that the EURO delivers cold air and the offshore ahem flow "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 I like how northerly the surface gradients are on this run. That means Seattle will get it's cold air from the north instead of it having to go over the Cascades. 3 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 I like the GEM better. 1 1 2 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 One word of caution (that maybe Matt might offer)... the blocking is weak and the undercutting has been shifting north with each run. Any further north and this might end up being a rainy pattern instead. 2 1 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, wxmet said: Great trend with the late week system. I don't think the north shifts are done. No night shift for me. I haven't slept yet from ... whenever that was..... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 I like the run that gives my house the most snow. 1 1 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 9 minutes ago, Requiem said: Where’s my offshore flow Is that really the first thing on your mind? 1 Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Yuck! I don't want the Pacific involved. That storm will bomb out and move north. Meanwhile, warm Pacific air will flood the NW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, DJ Droppin said: No night shift for me. I haven't slept yet from ... whenever that was..... We need you for the GFS 06z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I like the GEM better. You and me both. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 I'd prefer things don't get undercut so quickly. Let the cold marinate. 8 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Warm air much farther north one week from today... the result of rapid undercutting. I am guessing 12 degrees in Santa Barbara might not happen. 2 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 This is actually an extremely discouraging run. At least we still have the GEM and ICON. 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: One word of caution (that maybe Matt might offer)... the blocking is weak and the undercutting has been shifting north with each run. Any further north and this might end up being a rainy pattern instead. Great analysis! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 By hour 180 the 850hpa temps in the Willamette Valley are above average and it changes over to ZR. Hour 192, changeover to rain is complete with a dramatic warmup. Snow will get washed away fast. Hard to call this an improvement. Quick hitter and it's gone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, Phil said: Is that really the first thing on your mind? Honestly I’d love to get that cold air in before— at the very least this is admittedly a very cold run. "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: This is actually an extremely discouraging run. At least we still have the GEM and ICON. Someone gets a nice warm tongue. 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, wxmet said: Round 2! Would be a nasty ice storm down here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Well we know that'll change by 12z... I'm exhausted and heading off now. I will be here for 12z. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: One word of caution (that maybe Matt might offer)... the blocking is weak and the undercutting has been shifting north with each run. Any further north and this might end up being a rainy pattern instead. Definitely hard to overstate how tenuous this setup is. Thread the needle and we get an epic pattern with a lot of snow and legit cold, but it'd still be very easy to see nothing noteworthy at all. 4 2 Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Epic potential depending on the details. Going to be fun! 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Looks good for western Washington so far. OR NOT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Encouraging trends tonight. Hopefully the ICON and GEM are leading the way. Be blessed. 4 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: Looks good for western Washington so far. Honestly, that's all that matters to me!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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