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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


BLI snowman

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Just now, bainbridgekid said:

Definitely hard to overstate how tenuous this setup is. Thread the needle and we get an epic pattern with a lot of snow and legit cold, but it'd still be very easy to see nothing noteworthy at all.

Yep, dancing with the devil is dangerous.

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At the very least Portland has the gorge to at least cool things down a bit. Details are of course gonna change, but nice we saw some improvement in that 3-5 day range.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Snow from PDX to our Canada friends next Saturday.

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_24hr-3260800.png

And a potential windstorm through the Sound by that afternoon with a roaring south wind and temps in the mid 40s on the same run.     Would be a crazy day.

 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I think a GFS / ECMWF mix would be really good.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This is actually an extremely discouraging run. At least we still have the GEM and ICON. 

It’s over before it even began. Pretty sad stuff. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

One word of caution (that maybe Matt might offer)... the blocking is weak and the undercutting has been shifting north with each run.    Any further north and this might end up being a rainy pattern instead.  

 

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-3131200 (2).png

Seattle and North would be very possible.  

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

I just experienced the craziest day of my life. Normal, routine doctor's visit quickly spiraled into a seven hour stay in the ER for a MRI scan to check for malignant tumors or multiple sclerosis. Thankfully nothing was detected and my eye problem was resolved with a steroid prescription. Also the models look fantastic. And I'm sore from all the catheters and laying in one position for a quarter of a day. I need sleep.

Wtf man that sucks. Wishing you the best.

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

I just experienced the craziest day of my life. Normal, routine doctor's visit quickly spiraled into a seven hour stay in the ER for a MRI scan to check for malignant tumors or multiple sclerosis. Thankfully nothing was detected and my eye problem was resolved with a steroid prescription. Also the models look fantastic. And I'm sore from all the catheters and laying in one position for a quarter of a day. I need sleep.

That sucks, but glad you are home and got to see some goodies before sleepy time!!

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

I just experienced the craziest day of my life. Normal, routine doctor's visit quickly spiraled into a seven hour stay in the ER for a MRI scan to check for malignant tumors or multiple sclerosis. Thankfully nothing was detected and my eye problem was resolved with a steroid prescription. Also the models look fantastic. And I'm sore from all the catheters and laying in one position for a quarter of a day. I need sleep.

Man, scary stuff. Get some much needed rest.

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

I just experienced the craziest day of my life. Normal, routine doctor's visit quickly spiraled into a seven hour stay in the ER for a MRI scan to check for malignant tumors or multiple sclerosis. Thankfully nothing was detected and my eye problem was resolved with a steroid prescription. Also the models look fantastic. And I'm sore from all the catheters and laying in one position for a quarter of a day. I need sleep.

 

Wow... that sounds horrible.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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These model changes are making me dizzy.  Never seen anything like it.  Something great is highly possible.

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  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

He's just discussing the models.... 👿

Yes... I am.

As modeled that would be a crazy day.   Heavy snow... then strong winds... and heavy rain.    Of course its all speculative and the next run will look totally different as we have seen lately.    

 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, Phil said:

Wtf man that sucks. Wishing you the best.

 

Just now, GHweatherChris said:

That sucks, but glad you are home and got to see some goodies before sleepy time!!

Thanks y'all, I'm perfectly okay... all my vitals are good and nothing weird was found in my brain. Just a little shaken up and tired, that's all. Definitely the scariest day of my life and closest brush with something serious I've ever had.

Also I'm absolutely elated with the sudden shift on the models. Obviously exact snowfall positioning/potential over-undercutting won't be resolved 100+ hours out, but there are some seriously good solutions showing up.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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It’ll be different next run. Good that the cold is still there at least, let’s see if ensembles improve.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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11 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

By hour 180 the 850hpa temps in the Willamette Valley are above average and it changes over to ZR. Hour 192, changeover to rain is complete with a dramatic warmup. Snow will get washed away fast.

Hard to call this an improvement. Quick hitter and it's gone.

Do you know that this regions biggest snow falls include dramatic warm ups and cool downs in a short period? 

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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7 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I just experienced the craziest day of my life. Normal, routine doctor's visit quickly spiraled into a seven hour stay in the ER for a MRI scan to check for malignant tumors or multiple sclerosis. Thankfully nothing was detected and my eye problem was resolved with a steroid prescription. Also the models look fantastic. And I'm sore from all the catheters and laying in one position for a quarter of a day. I need sleep.

Glad all is well! 🙏

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Just now, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Yeah, you want to be in that Winter battle zone.

That "winter battle zone" is exactly what dropped 4 feet of snow here just two years ago next week.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Only this forum could put a negative spin on tonight's models.  Totally unreal.  Keep in mind a blend, which is most likely, would be fantastic.

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  • Excited 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yes... I am.

As modeled that would be a crazy day.   Heavy snow... then strong winds... and heavy rain.    Of course its all speculative and the next run will look totally different as we have seen lately.    

 

Kind of like 12/29/96! Heavy snow in the morning to rain and wind by the afternoon! 

57604F7C-50D2-4829-8CF4-FD20DAD05341.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Just now, paulb/eugene said:

image.gif.47738a7ece1e9b7bff6760ab2f1b7035.gifThis is what I like to call the James Bond pattern.  Really high stakes with frigid airmass interior WA/BC and undercutting moist Pacific flow from the west.  There will be a few winners and lots of losers.  

We don't even know that the undercutting will happen yet.  Maybe lots of winners and only a few losers is possible too.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, SalemDuck said:

The chicken littling on this site never ceases to amaze me

It would have happened in Jan 1950 too.  Drives me nuts.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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