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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


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35 minutes ago, wxmet said:

Great trend with the late week system. I don't think the north shifts are done.

Ah yes, we are now at that point where the northern and southern posters can turn on each other as they try to will the low into their ideal landfall locations. 

I'm glad we're even in the position to be talking about these details in this winter. 

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49 minutes ago, MossMan said:

It was hard to visit the abandoned course...9 back breaking (the root of all of my back and neck issues) years but was always so rewarding to have the course as nice as could be. 2005 and 2019 same view standing on 7 green looking back at the fairway. 

C32FCAEC-8739-4145-AECB-421F2BD048FF.jpeg

27866662-8860-4F54-AE3D-CD096B49ABFD.jpeg

I played there but don't remember too much of it....it was for a scramble tournament, and a friend drove.  After helping to host tournaments for 9 years, it was the first time I was at a tournament were I had no responsibilities.  While its probably the most sh**faced I have gotten at a tournament, I do remember I enjoyed the course and actually played well for all but 2 or 3 holes.  I got a little *too* sh**faced at one point, but we were luckily by the clubhouse so I was able to snag some food.  Good times.

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Very encouraged by what we’ve been seeing today on the models. Best not to focus on the details after the initial cold blast at this point as those details will change drastically run to run. What does matter is in the short term there’s lots less volatility regarding the first shot of cold air arriving. Models really seem to be locking in on that...odds are rapidly increasing for a decent blast. The details afterwards will work themselves out...but getting the cold air here in the first place is the key to getting snow in the first place. We will see how the models handle this...wether we moderate more quickly with a big overrunning event or an extended cold snap. Either option sounds pretty good. Either way looks like it’s about to get cold...IF it verifies this winter could go from dud to great in a hurry. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

I played there but don't remember too much of it....it was for a scramble tournament, and a friend drove.  After helping to host tournaments for 9 years, it was the first time I was at a tournament were I had no responsibilities.  While its probably the most sh**faced I have gotten at a tournament, I do remember I enjoyed the course and actually played well for all but 2 or 3 holes.  I got a little *too* sh**faced at one point, but we were luckily by the clubhouse so I was able to snag some food.  Good times.

What year was that? 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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EPS looks good, I think? 
 

Anyways for the more informed folks on here— was December 1996 one of those undercutting situations?

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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2 minutes ago, Snowdrift said:

If the undercutting happens, I hope somebody gets nailed. I just want cold, dry, windy, and sunny weather. I couldn't care less about snowfall.

Me too haha 

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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3 minutes ago, Requiem said:

EPS looks good, I think? 
 

Anyways for the more informed folks on here— was December 1996 one of those undercutting situations?

The Euro scenario is a pretty similar setup.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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6 minutes ago, Requiem said:

EPS looks good, I think? 
 

Anyways for the more informed folks on here— was December 1996 one of those undercutting situations?

Yes one of the largest the puget sound has had. There was 3-4feet in some areas of the kitsap peninsula and then it rained for 2 days over all that snow.  The marina in port orchard sank from the snow load.

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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19 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

2 seamer for movement, 4 seamer for speed and pinpoint control. I was also a pitcher 🙂

What else was in your arsenal? Changeup? Slider?

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

I just experienced the craziest day of my life. Normal, routine doctor's visit quickly spiraled into a seven hour stay in the ER for a MRI scan to check for malignant tumors or multiple sclerosis. Thankfully nothing was detected and my eye problem was resolved with a steroid prescription. Also the models look fantastic. And I'm sore from all the catheters and laying in one position for a quarter of a day. I need sleep.

Wow, was catching up on the Euro run then saw this post that certainly shook me a little. Crazy stuff but certainly glad everything seems OK for you. Rest well for next day or so and get back to model riding with us as soon as you can. Take care!

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namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_52.thumb.png.ecd63e3d58ac2a59efb084443f9474b8.png

This would be amazing. If only the NAM weren't so bad at modeling terrain influence!

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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trend-gfs-2021020606-f003.500h_anom_npac.gif.6fa2013e22162070d36bc6c868910b31.gif

Ridge a jump west on the 06z.

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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