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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


BLI snowman

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Just now, MossMan said:

Perhaps the models will pulsate one more time back in our favor...

Yeah, I was going to say that it's the pull back before the push forward before the pull back before the push forward...

Or maybe we're just in a Persian rug shop and even though rugs keeps getting pulled, we keep having more beneath us.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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GEM just gave us a shot of HOPE!

 

F06889D7-42BA-4B98-9EE4-75D9956C9F4C.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, DJ Droppin said:

The lack of data ingested into the models is just pure chaos.... The worst run-to-run consistency of all time

I don't think that is the issue.   The models have not been that bad this winter... the GFS has always teased everyone with massive snowstorms and pink and purple maps in the long range.    This is just a very unique pattern in which tiny differences in the short term cause things to go down a completely different path by the mid range.   It will pass and things will settle down again in the model world.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The GFS is the sober one right now. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I don't think that is the issue.   The models have not been that bad this winter... the GFS has always teased everyone with massive snowstorms and pink and purple maps in the long range.    This is just a very unique pattern in which tiny differences in the short term cause things to go down a completely different path by the mid range.   It will pass and things will settle down again in the model world.

There have been articles posted about it. 🤷‍♂️ Definitely a unique pattern yes.

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29 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Some forum members went to bed last night in snowy cold bliss and are just being slapped awake by the warm harsh reality of model riding. Good think I checked when letting the dogs outside at 4:30am, it softened the blow a little. Had a feeling since there were only 30 posts between when I went to bed at 11 and when I got up at 4:30. This is kind of like that one year all over again when the models where showing a January 1950 redux but then changed just a couple days out. I did have a 3hr overriding event from that “1950 redux” so that was nice. Think I got about 3” before melting as fast as it came. 

You just had to tell your wife..

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19 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I don't think that is the issue.   The models have not been that bad this winter... the GFS has always teased everyone with massive snowstorms and pink and purple maps in the long range.    This is just a very unique pattern in which tiny differences in the short term cause things to go down a completely different path by the mid range.   It will pass and things will settle down again in the model world.

This.

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Gfs gets there around hour 318.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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9 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

So… back to winter cancel again!

Look on the bright side: SouthHillFrosty has a decent shot at 1,000 days now.

LETS GO!!! Who wants snow when you can have 38 degrees and rain!!!

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Guess we’ve been too focused on the upcoming stuff to noticed which models called for a windstorm today. NWS sent out yet another last minute wind advisory for Seattle.  Winds have already picked up. 

Perhaps look back a few days to see which models have been consistent with this and that may give us an indication upcoming pattern, if any.

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It all comes down to the Euro...

Until the 18z NAM comes out, that one will tell us exactly what is going to happen! 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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12Z GEFS loop for the next week... it seems that regardless of the upper air pattern the basin will get cold and the east wind will blow.   

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nw-t850_anom_stream-1612612800-1612612800-1613217600-10.gif

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just saw the GEM, time to winterize? Haven’t needed to yet this winter... GFS says not to worry about it. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GEFS shifted east by mid week as well...

 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-2958400.png

Let’s just end this now, hopefully everything shifts way east and we can just get on with life. Bring on summer. 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just saw the GEM, time to winterize? Haven’t needed to yet this winter... GFS says not to worry about it. 

Don’t worry about it until our much awaited October cold snap that will lead us to nowhere. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Over the past few days we've had a couple of discussions about the impact of air travel on model accuracy.  I got this data from the TSA showing # of travelers moving through the system (presumably going through checkpoints).

The data format was a little goofy, and I don't have the brainpower this morning to figure out a better way, but it's still pretty telling....

 

A LOT fewer flights....

 

image.png.83fb614a61c93780b1fd8d1b39957ba0.png

Edited by Chewbacca Defense
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