MossMan Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Perhaps the models will pulsate one more time back in our favor... 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: Wow! GEM Day 6 850s I'll take the under on this run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 I am sure the 12Z ECMWF will clear all this up! **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, MossMan said: Perhaps the models will pulsate one more time back in our favor... Yeah, I was going to say that it's the pull back before the push forward before the pull back before the push forward... Or maybe we're just in a Persian rug shop and even though rugs keeps getting pulled, we keep having more beneath us. 4 Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 GEM just gave us a shot of HOPE! 2 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 The lack of data ingested into the models is just pure chaos.... The worst run-to-run consistency of all time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, DJ Droppin said: The lack of data ingested into the models is just pure chaos.... The worst run-to-run consistency of all time I don't think that is the issue. The models have not been that bad this winter... the GFS has always teased everyone with massive snowstorms and pink and purple maps in the long range. This is just a very unique pattern in which tiny differences in the short term cause things to go down a completely different path by the mid range. It will pass and things will settle down again in the model world. 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 I mean we've of course has many dozens of model riding adventures with flip flops, trends back and forth, but not to this extent. At least from what I can remember. I really want to see how the EURO handles the potential ridge merger with NAO block and how quickly it does so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 The GFS is the sober one right now. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: I don't think that is the issue. The models have not been that bad this winter... the GFS has always teased everyone with massive snowstorms and pink and purple maps in the long range. This is just a very unique pattern in which tiny differences in the short term cause things to go down a completely different path by the mid range. It will pass and things will settle down again in the model world. There have been articles posted about it. Definitely a unique pattern yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Somebody check the Korean model quick! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 12z GEFS supports a big low level blast for PDX with The Dalles -16c 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Rug burns on the bottom of the feet are the worst. 1 https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Anyone have the ukmet? Looks like a significant step back from the 500 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 So… back to winter cancel again! Look on the bright side: SouthHillFrosty has a decent shot at 1,000 days now. 1 It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 5 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Somebody check the Korean model quick! No, no, no, It's the 90Z Mongolian remember? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 At least its beautiful day in Tahoe! 1 1 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 6 minutes ago, Esquimalt said: Anyone have the ukmet? Looks like a significant step back from the 500 mb Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, bainbridgekid said: Not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 29 minutes ago, MossMan said: Some forum members went to bed last night in snowy cold bliss and are just being slapped awake by the warm harsh reality of model riding. Good think I checked when letting the dogs outside at 4:30am, it softened the blow a little. Had a feeling since there were only 30 posts between when I went to bed at 11 and when I got up at 4:30. This is kind of like that one year all over again when the models where showing a January 1950 redux but then changed just a couple days out. I did have a 3hr overriding event from that “1950 redux” so that was nice. Think I got about 3” before melting as fast as it came. You just had to tell your wife.. 1 Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 19 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: I don't think that is the issue. The models have not been that bad this winter... the GFS has always teased everyone with massive snowstorms and pink and purple maps in the long range. This is just a very unique pattern in which tiny differences in the short term cause things to go down a completely different path by the mid range. It will pass and things will settle down again in the model world. This. Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Gfs gets there around hour 318. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 9 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: So… back to winter cancel again! Look on the bright side: SouthHillFrosty has a decent shot at 1,000 days now. LETS GO!!! Who wants snow when you can have 38 degrees and rain!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 11 minutes ago, Esquimalt said: Anyone have the ukmet? Looks like a significant step back from the 500 mb 5 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: 12z UKMET at days 5 and 6. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 32 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Wow! GEM Day 6 850s The GEM not backing down at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemDuck Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Gem and GFS disagree by -19c for 850mb temps at day 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Guess we’ve been too focused on the upcoming stuff to noticed which models called for a windstorm today. NWS sent out yet another last minute wind advisory for Seattle. Winds have already picked up. Perhaps look back a few days to see which models have been consistent with this and that may give us an indication upcoming pattern, if any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 It all comes down to the Euro... Until the 18z NAM comes out, that one will tell us exactly what is going to happen! Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joelgombiner Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Impressive block over the North Pacific 3 5 Useful weather links Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 12z UKMET 850mb temperatures for next Thursday. Not bad, East winds will be howling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 19 hours ago, GHweatherChris said: Tonights runs are not gonna be good if the pattern from the last 5 days of changing outcomes continues. Good call! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cjmessling Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Well I fortunately have a planned visit to bend to visit the in laws Wednesday through Monday. Might be my saving grace for cold. It is the in laws though so I was hoping for a nice arctic front and cold to keep me from having to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 12Z GEFS shifted east by mid week as well... 1 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 12Z GEFS loop for the next week... it seems that regardless of the upper air pattern the basin will get cold and the east wind will blow. 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just saw the GEM, time to winterize? Haven’t needed to yet this winter... GFS says not to worry about it. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemDuck Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z GEFS shifted east by mid week as well... Oh Tim... It’s in between the 0z and 6z. It’s also improved days 6-9. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z GEFS shifted east by mid week as well... Let’s just end this now, hopefully everything shifts way east and we can just get on with life. Bring on summer. Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Just saw the GEM, time to winterize? Haven’t needed to yet this winter... GFS says not to worry about it. Don’t worry about it until our much awaited October cold snap that will lead us to nowhere. 1 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Had a massive gust just went through and caused the lights to flicker. might lose power soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 (edited) Over the past few days we've had a couple of discussions about the impact of air travel on model accuracy. I got this data from the TSA showing # of travelers moving through the system (presumably going through checkpoints). The data format was a little goofy, and I don't have the brainpower this morning to figure out a better way, but it's still pretty telling.... A LOT fewer flights.... Edited February 6, 2021 by Chewbacca Defense Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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