February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

ANDREW IS ON BOARD! 

So is Matt!!! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, DJ Droppin said:

For PDX it'll be colder than modeled due to widespread snow cover, strong east winds and major low level cold air advection. In fact, as the snow increases I wouldn't be surprised if we're closer to 12-14 F.

You made me LOL there Rob. Come on brother. Reality. I highly doubt this turns into January 1950 or February 1989. 

[Winterdog]

850's tanking again on Sunday Seattle north

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You made me LOL there Rob. Come on brother. Reality. I highly doubt this turns into January 1950 or February 1989. 

Not at all. We are modeled to be 20 with heavy snow falling. If you factor in already having widespread snow cover, wet bulb cooling, and raging east wind we'll be a good bit colder than that 20.

[Jesse]

Looks like a playing with fire pattern to me. Maybe more than people want to admit right now.

That said it would be really nice to see some of these colder and snowier runs verify. We are due!!

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, wxmet said:

GFS going through its normal inconsistencies. As long as we have the Euro we’re good. We’re in the range where the Euro locks in. Hard to imagine it changes drastically in subsequent runs.

If it were Euro vs everything else, I’d still bet on the Euro. I can’t count how many times I’ve seen it humiliate the other models.  

[TT-SEA]

That is what I call a crazy run.  

Its balance between the 'too far south' 12Z run yesterday and the 'too far north' 00Z run.

 

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

To an extent. I am rooting for a drier cold solution. Though at face value what the EURO shows would be historic. So I would take it. 

Still plenty of time to trend that way. Looking like it’ll get cold either way at this point...I’d take snowy and cold or sunny and cold at this point after how this winters been. 

[umadbro]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

To an extent. I am rooting for a drier cold solution. Though at face value what the EURO shows would be historic. So I would take it. 

I hope it snows every where like crazy except you get warm tongued to 32.8 degree heavy rain

[snow_wizard]

850s still at -10 Saturday evening.  Wow!

Epic run.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Jesse said:

Looks like a playing with fire pattern to me. Maybe more than people want to admit right now.

Way better than lasts night's 0z, but certainly far from locked in.

[Phil]

The closest 500mb analog for this pattern might actually be January 1969. Trying to think of others..anyone have ideas?

More Aleutian low this time, but -NAO and most wave-stations match.

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

For PDX it'll be colder than modeled due to widespread snow cover, strong east winds and major low level cold air advection. In fact, as the snow increases I wouldn't be surprised if we're closer to 12-14 F.

As long as we’re below 15 we’ll be fine. Anything warmer than that and it’s game over.  Gonna be close!

[TT-SEA]

And its about to get even more crazy... its still in the 20s on Sunday morning and another huge system is racing eastward.

 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That is what I call a crazy run.  

Its balance between the 'too far south' 12Z run yesterday and the 'too far north' 00Z run.

 

I would pay to lock this run in!

[SalemDuck]

This euro run is 2/6/14 plus 1/10/17 for Portland 

[High Desert Mat?]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I would pay to lock this run in!

How much?

[Jesse]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Way better than lasts night's 0z, but certainly far from locked in.

I’m just always skeptical when the models want to push a big blob of very cold air over us with undercutting moisture, when there really isn’t much of a 500mb mechanism to push it/hold it south. Not much of a coherent offshore blocking signal on these runs. Very messy setup in the upper levels. Sometimes that works out though!

[TT-SEA]

Total snow through Monday morning.   Poor Randy!! 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

As long as we’re below 15 we’ll be fine. Anything warmer than that and it’s game over.  Gonna be close!

I think Rob could onto something.  Crazy cold air in play with evaporative cooling to help out.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, High Desert Mat? said:

How much?

I would go $200.00 easy.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Looks like a playing with fire pattern to me. Maybe more than people want to admit right now.

That said it would be really nice to see some of these colder and snowier runs verify. We are due!!

You know I am seeing what you are seeing my friend!

[Jesse]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You know I am seeing what you are seeing my friend!

Weenie buddies 4ever Andrew

[Gradient Keeper]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

As long as we’re below 15 we’ll be fine. Anything warmer than that and it’s game over.  Gonna be close!

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Total snow through Monday morning.   Poor Randy!! 

It will trend north! I WANT ALL OF THE PEPTO!!! 

[wxmet]

Overall great setup on the ECMWF. It leaves room for things to trend north as we have often seen with these systems. Hopefully we can all cash in.

[Jbolin]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Total snow through Monday morning.   Poor Randy!! 

Too bad, should've never taken the plow off the lawn mower nor touched that kiddie pool

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[snow_wizard]

I saw a question about Jan / Feb 1996.  That event began as a Fraser River blast in late January then the cold locked in and we a got big Columbia Basin cold pool with an easterly gradient.

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, wxmet said:

Overall great setup on the ECMWF. It leaves room for things to trend north as we have often seen with these systems. Hopefully we can all cash in.

As of now we do. Rob is the big winner though

[Skagit Weather]

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, JBolin said:

Too bad, should've never taken the plow off the lawn mower nor touched that kiddie pool

The plow is still waiting and hoping! 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9-10 850s fresh batch of arctic air arrives

[Deweydog]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think Rob could onto something.  Crazy cold air in play with evaporative cooling to help out.

The Euro is clearly already depicting a ridiculous amount of low level cold compared to what would be expected based on the mid and upper level conditions. Temps around 20 with precip is hard to come by around here. It’s happened three times this century.

Now if the model was depicting -20c with thicknesses in the low 500’s, I could see letting your imagination running a little more wild.

[Phil]

7 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I’m just always skeptical when the models want to push a big blob of very cold air over us with undercutting moisture, when there really isn’t much of a 500mb mechanism to push it/hold it south. Not much of a coherent offshore blocking signal on these runs.

Verbatim the cold derives from the fact the TPV itself (IE: the cold air machine) is dislodged into SW Canada by a *retrograding* -NAO. The retrograde is the key. Pacific blocking is mediocre, sure, but even mediocre upstream blocking might be sufficient here, given the forcing is quasi-inverted..it isn’t coming from the Pacific early on.

How the Pacific evolves after the retrogression is much more important (for duration of the cold).

[Jbolin]

Just now, MossMan said:

The plow is still waiting and hoping! 

I recant my previous "in your face" comment. 

You know what, cut the kiddie pool up and put a piece of it on your daughters tractor as a makeshift plow, you can never have too many superstitions. 

Right?

[MossMan]

Matt is no longer onboard. 

[Jesse]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Verbatim the cold derives from the fact the TPV itself (IE: the cold air machine) is dislodged into SW Canada by a *retrograding* -NAO. Pacific blocking is mediocre, sure, but that might be sufficient given the forcing isn’t actually coming from the Pacific during the early stages.

Sure hope so!! ️ 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

The Euro is clearly already depicting a ridiculous amount of low level cold compared to what would be expected based on the mid and upper level conditions.  Temps around 20 with precip is hard to come by around here. It’s happened three times this century.

Now if the model was depicting -20c with thicknesses in the low 500’s, I could see letting your imagination running a little more wild.

A day such as 12/20/08 or 2/6/14 would be reasonable if this solution were to verify...