snow_wizard Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 5 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 10 Cold, cold, and more cold! 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 5 minutes ago, Deweydog said: The Euro is clearly already depicting a ridiculous amount of low level cold compared to what would be expected based on the mid and upper level conditions. Temps around 20 with precip is hard to come by around here. It’s happened three times this century. Now if the model was depicting -20c with thicknesses in the low 500’s, I could see letting your imagination running a little more wild. You're definitely right, but didn't Portland have afternoon snow falling with temps in the teens 7 years ago today? 3 Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 4 minutes ago, MossMan said: The plow is still waiting and hoping! You need to put a plow on the little one! How cute would that be? 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, snow_wizard said: You need to put a plow on the little one! How cute would that be? Similar thought processes Jim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 3 minutes ago, Jesse said: Sure hope so!! ️ You and me both. Really pulling for you Oregon guys after the disaster that was last winter. 3 Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Cold, cold, and more cold! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, Phil said: You and me both. Really pulling for you Oregon guys after the disaster that was last winter. I’m pulling for Moss Man 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, Kolk1604 said: That would be the coldest temps here in Tacoma since November 2010. 1 Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 The EPS might be very interesting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prairiedog Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 24 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Warm nose is gonna get me Saturday morning. This looks a lot like February 2014 btw. Yep, was just going to say that. I'm just north of you at 310ft near Estacada. Classic warm nose. I've still got the one from 2018 sitting over me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 BTW...the next low goes well south of hear and leaves a cold / dry day here with snow on the ground. Afternoon temps still only mid 30s on Monday. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, Jesse said: I’m pulling for Moss Man Awe thanks Jesse! 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfan2012 Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, Phil said: You and me both. Really pulling for you Oregon guys after the disaster that was last winter. Last winter was the ultimate disaster coast to coast winter that you will ever find around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Rob's knee must really be killing him, the last time the models were this gung-ho, PDX ended up with a surprise 12+" when it was only modeled for 2-4" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: You're definitely right, but didn't Portland have snow falling in the teens 7 years ago today? I think they bottomed out at 19 or 20, which would be in line with the Euro which depicts a slightly warmer mid and upper level air mass overall. This 12-14 degree stuff is pretty silly to consider for almost a week later. Point is, it’s hard enough to do in mid winter, let alone by mid February. 2014 in itself was unprecedented. 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Pepto from Tacoma to Salem in this run! 2 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Here was some fun research... Record Min Max and Mins at PDX and the Downtown station February 11-14th PDX Record Min Max Record Lows 11th: 38 (1981) 24 (1948) 12th: 35 (1990) 24 (1948) 13th: 31 (1995) 23 (1990) 14th: 34 (1990) 16 (1995) Downtown station Record Min Max Record Low 11th: 25 (1884) 12 (1884) 12th: 29 (1884) 7 (1884) 13th: 31 (1884) 12 (1884) 14th: 25 (1900) 10 (1884) 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 12Z EPS... day 5. This is actually a bit east of the 00Z run. 1 1 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 LOL Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Tim Maps not onboard 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 All of the lows on the ECMWF map on Tuesday morning (next week) are from 9 to 17. That is the NW view. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 12Z EPS... day 6 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z EPS... day 5. This is actually a bit east of the 00Z run. In this case a bit east might be better. It sure was on the op run. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z EPS... day 5. This is actually a bit east of the 00Z run. Someone is going to get buried in ZR with that pattern. Just screams low level cold advection across the CONUS. 2 Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Clear undercutting signal on Friday afternoon per the 12Z EPS... **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 EPS... day 7 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: In this case a bit east might be better. It sure was on the op run. East could be good at this point since it could mean greater southward penetration of arctic air/less undercutting initially. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 18 minutes ago, Phil said: Verbatim the cold derives from the fact the TPV itself (IE: the cold air machine) is dislodged into SW Canada by a *retrograding* -NAO. The retrograde is the key. Pacific blocking is mediocre, sure, but even mediocre upstream blocking might be sufficient here, given the forcing is quasi-inverted..it isn’t coming from the Pacific early on. How the Pacific evolves after the retrogression is much more important (for duration of the cold). Is the pattern now starting to evolve the way you originally expected? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtep Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 What a roller coaster. Really excited to see what next week brings. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, TT-SEA said: EPS... day 7 What a monster blast we are looking at across the US. Gonna freeze the out of this COVID-19. 3 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 I like how the models aren't trending in any one bad direction. That's a good thing in my book. The door is wide open for a great outcome. 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OysterPrintout Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 well it's settled 12z euro is the run and there will be no future changes lock it in 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Only the GFS was a dud. EURO, GEM, ICON were terrific. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 In case anyone missed it. GEM had 850mb temps -20C or below from about Eugene - north. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 The Euro spits out a low of 13 for SEA next Tuesday. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 The EPS is not that cold at the 850mb level next weekend... but neither was the ECMWF and it did not matter. It looks pretty similar to me... cold enough air in place and a pattern that would bring copious moisture. And cue the Jaws music for Phil! 2 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 In case anyone was wondering. The latest it has been 15 or lower at PDX (For a low) was 2-6-1989. The downtown station which has data from before 1938 is a much different story. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 The EPS control is exactly like the operational. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: The EPS is not that cold next weekend per the EPS... but neither was the ECMWF and it did not matter. It looks pretty similar to me... cold enough air in place and a pattern that would bring copious moisture. And cue the Jaws music for Phil! This has the potential to be one of the greatest blasts of the 21st Century nationally. Have we even had a coast to coast blast this Century?! 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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