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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


BLI snowman

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Just like the ECMWF.  A significant low breaks through the offshore ridge and then the ridge resets and prolongs the cold.  The big question is where that low will make landfall.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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15 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

18z is easily the coldest GFS run in a while. Still not as cold as the Euro or GEM but good to see it moving in that direction.

 

gfs_T850a_nwus_fh126_trend.gif

I'm not worried about the GFS if we have the Euro and GEM on our side. That said, the GFS run is still solid.

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12 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

18z gives Eugene 10" of snow on Thursday night.

But 0” in Springfield!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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My earlier comment may have come off as cold or calloused. I didn't mean to come across that way. As far as the homeless are concerned, I would do anything to help them. In my my experience, I've noticed that a sizable group don't want any help. Of course they should all have access to warming shelters during cold waves. That is the humane thing to do.

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4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

We finally got Jim onboard!!!

image.jpeg.f9d79b3fcca836899430ec4e77ecda82.jpeg

I was just waiting to be sure notable cold was close to be being locked in. Looks like at least one or two freezing max temps has a really good chance of happening.  Still not sure the real prize of -20 daily departures will happen yet.  Obviously any snow cover will play a big role in that.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

You called it!

Like it's anything near set in stone.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

Long lasting cold?

Looking that way.  What is up with Feb the past decade?  When I was kid Feb was always a dud.  Weird how cyclical this stuff is.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, smerfylicious said:

GFS needs to push that 2nd system a couple hundred miles north so Puget Sound can get in on the snow action.

I'd always bet on these things trending a bit north in the final stretch. There are of course plenty of exceptions of that failing to happen or even going south (Feb 2019 Eugene special). 

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The further out stuff gets really good for cold mins with surface gradients going pretty weak / offshore.  With snow cover there could be some real eye poppers.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, nwsnow said:

I'd always bet on these things trending a bit north in the final stretch. There are of course plenty of exceptions of that failing to happen or even going south (Feb 2019 Eugene special). 

Pretty much everyone really got in on Feb 2019.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The dividends of having such a ridiculous amount of cold air in play becomes obvious on this run.  As the cold snap progresses the 500mb stuff is only fair, but the cold 850s really hang on.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Still going to take a wait and see approach! Good trends!

  • Weenie 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Pretty much everyone really got in on Feb 2019.

There was a fairly sizable wedge of the region between roughly Salem and Chehalis that never saw more than 1-2" at once that month. Generally the same area that got nailed in 2016-17, but the see-saw is back in our favor now after the last two years.

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5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looking that way.  What is up with Feb the past decade?  When I was kid Feb was always a dud.  Weird how cyclical this stuff is.

I do remember in the 80’s a few of the February’s way out performed January as well. 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 minute ago, JBolin said:

If we get another February to remember (and record books), this thread "may" approach Dec 2008 but that's a very lofty goal.

Sure wish Fred could get that thread back. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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It appears the site for the 850mb temp graphs is overloaded, and I can't get in.  It says too many connections.  Must be a lot of people geeking out right now both in the US and Europe.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I do remember in the 80’s a few of the February’s way out performed January as well. 

Yeah....1985 through 1990 was a good run for Feb.  1963 through 1984 was historically awful.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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32 minutes ago, Cloud said:

I'd imagine there are quite a few of us.

Graduated from there. 

Big UW family here.  My wife and I both graduated from there.  My son just got his degree in Informatics last June and my daughter is a junior at UW majoring in Psychology.

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On 2/5/2021 at 7:37 AM, JBolin said:

Good morning, 

As you know, back in late December I decided to end my jovial "ranting" here among you soulless bastard's to focus on more personal matters. 

Well despite my better judgement I have chosen to share some major life news with you all, my gf has accepted an amazing offer from her employer that requires relocation. As such the offer comes with all expenses paid relocation overseas. 

As of August 3rd of this year, her and I will be living full time in Tampere, Finland, not only will this be a massive change but also a welcome change as she is originally from Finland and still has family there as well as in Sweden and Norway. 

I'm still a bit shell-shocked about the whole thing but then I realized, I'll get to see the Aurora Borealis, I'll get snow and not have to worry about the models waffling, I'll see so many things that many of us want or hope to see (in a lifetime) and how lucky we'll both be to experience that. 

The immersion into a culture I'm not familiar with will be a hard task to endure but the "rewards" will far outweigh any hiccups or missteps I may have. 

So for the time being, I may continue to lurk among you and may periodically post. 

Take it easy you goons.

By the way congrats on your Huge move in life and I wish you and your family well on this adventure!.  Currently 10* and here are some shots from around Tampere.  Looks like cold is plentiful but moisture will be the challenge if anything although I don’t know that area.  Looks like annual precipitation amount around 23 inches annually.  The great thing is whatever falls hangs around forever! 

39F19829-E7B8-4511-B9DF-9FD8418AAD80.png

98EE798A-EAC0-41FC-A77B-3F833881C0F2.png

CD230A5D-8C67-499A-82B0-D5111152025F.png

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1 hour ago, OysterPrintout said:

as much as you probably like to think you're triggering people it's more just a general feeling of disgust and disappointment that a fellow human would think that way. Now if we get an good snowstorm just for your dumb posts I'm gonna bring some extra hand warmers I have laying around to the shelter a few blocks from me. Probably have a few hats I don't use in the closet too.

the rams got matt stafford. did u hear?

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I think pretty much the bare minimum we will see out of this now as far as cold is at least three max temps of 35 of lower for both SEA and PDX.  Top tier cold is still very possible.  There have been a few Febs in the past that have pulled off highs in the low 20s around mid month.  1858 pulled off a ridiculous pair of 15 degree highs at Fort Steilacom (near Tacoma).

  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think pretty much the bare minimum we will see out of this now as far as cold is at least three max temps of 35 of lower for both SEA and PDX.  Top tier cold is still very possible.  There have been a few Febs in the past that have pulled off highs in the low 20s around mid month.  1858 pulled off a ridiculous pair of 15 degree highs at Fort Steilacom (near Tacoma).

Make your forecast!

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think pretty much the bare minimum we will see out of this now as far as cold is at least three max temps of 35 of lower for both SEA and PDX.  Top tier cold is still very possible.  There have been a few Febs in the past that have pulled off highs in the low 20s around mid month.  1858 pulled off a ridiculous pair of 15 degree highs at Fort Steilacom (near Tacoma).

I think that is very, very far from a given right now. Highs of 35 or lower are no layup at this point in the season, let alone long strings of them.

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