February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[snow drift]

2 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Winner winner chicken dinner! Can't wait.

January has a few moments, but probably the least snowy month averaged out this last decade.

Serious cold has been nearly nonexistent. 2017 is the exception.

[Phil]

48 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Historically seasonal lag becomes more pronounced the further east and north you go on the continent. To where the historic averages are actually lowest in February.

St. John's, Newfoundland which sits at our latitude at the extreme eastern end of the continental shelf is 0.7F colder in February than in January, and 7F colder in February than December. The same phenomena exists in the Arctic, where Utqiaġvik (Barrow) averages 0.5F colder in February than in January as sea ice increase couples with the still relatively short days for their coldest weather.

Our history says it's likely just cyclical, but perhaps seasonal lag is simply increasing as a whole with climate change. The same trend can certainly be seen with August, which is now overwhelmingly our hottest month as opposed to July.

It makes sense the Arctic would bottom out later because the annual re-freezing process releases a lot of latent heat. And of course, locations downstream of those arctic airmasses, such as E-Canada, would feel the effects more profoundly vs places further removed from that pathway, such as the western US.

That said, yes, seasonal dynamics have changed over the last decade. But it’s difficult to isolate any AGW component in that from natural variability, which is quite profound and quite homogenous in structure. 

[jakerepp]

4 minutes ago, wxmet said:

18z ECMWF is running. No major changes out to the 54hr.

Euro's got this baby locked in!

[wxmet]

4 minutes ago, wxmet said:

18z ECMWF is running. No major changes out to the 54hr.

The trough is a bit further west and the western extent of the TPV is stronger which should net a colder run.

[TheNewCulverJosh]

I wish Mark Nelsen would come post here.  Does he have an alter ego maybe?  Or maybe he just doesn't want to be associated with some of the stuff here?

[Winterdog]

15 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

Anybody else anticipating the 00z suite of models?

I'm sorry but I have to release some negativity here or I fear I might burst.  Considering the 18Z op was one of the colder members of the ensemble I expect the 0Z to continue the milder trend.  Despite wxmet's favorable report on the 18Z Euro, I fear the Euro may follow suit with a milder look as well.  So, yes, I'm anticipating the 0Z runs but I expect to be disappointed.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[wxmet]

18z ECMWF

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, Acer said:

I'm sorry but I have to release some negativity here or I fear I might burst.  Considering the 18Z op was one of the colder members of the ensemble I expect the 0Z to continue the milder trend.  Despite wxmet's favorable report on the 18Z Euro, I fear the Euro may follow suit with a milder look as well.  So, yes, I'm anticipating the 0Z runs but I expect to be disappointed.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Would be great if we could hold our ground. 

[TacomaWaWx]

49/42 today. Have had some gusts +40mph today at times. Today might be the warmest day for a little while. 

[TacomaWaWx]

7 minutes ago, Acer said:

I'm sorry but I have to release some negativity here or I fear I might burst.  Considering the 18Z op was one of the colder members of the ensemble I expect the 0Z to continue the milder trend.  Despite wxmet's favorable report on the 18Z Euro, I fear the Euro may follow suit with a milder look as well.  So, yes, I'm anticipating the 0Z runs but I expect to be disappointed.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Euros been pretty steady so far. 

[Timmy Supercell]

4 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We were 23/13 with 5” of snow on this date 7 years ago. 

I got snow but the cold didn't extend much south of Deschutes County. I had highs around 40 so that melted not long afterwards. Redmond had a legit arctic blast I remember.

[Deweydog]

Yeah, seven years ago RIGHT NOW it was snowing hard and 19 degrees outside.  That was phun.

[Timmy Supercell]

17 minutes ago, Snowdrift said:

Serious cold has been nearly nonexistent. 2017 is the exception.

Yeah that was a good one, actually had my second coldest low (-19) on 01/06/17. It was nowhere close to Dec 2013 though in terms of longevity when I had a week straight of below zero.

[snow_wizard]

The 18z GFS is slightly west and pushing in more maritime polar air.  Looks like higher snow chances going into the cold.  850s are -8 in both SEA and Portland at hour 90.  Projecting forward it would probably be a better run than the 12z for delivering colder air.

[paulb/eugene]

Encouraging to see models not bailing out on potential cold weather/snow episode today

[Slushy Inch]

18z Euro looks better than the 12z!

[Timmy]

6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Yeah, seven years ago RIGHT NOW it was snowing hard and 19 degrees outside.  That was phun.

Didn’t get over 15 for 3 straight days at my old house on the hill then.

[Deweydog]

Just now, Timmy said:

Didn’t get over 15 for 3 straight days at my old house on the hill then.

Sounds like next weekend at Rob’s house!

[Slushy Inch]

Here's a comparison of the early development of the Arctic front in the 12z and 18z, looks better. 

[wxmet]

Another look at the Arctic front that's dropping south. Dynamics look great with this one.

 

[Slushy Inch]

More evidence of the stronger Arctic front is that the mount of moisture available is way up.

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, wxmet said:

Another look at the Arctic front that's dropping south. Dynamics look great with this one.

 

Absolutely

[Winterdog]

The sun doing it’s thing this afternoon 

[TacomaWaWx]

15 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Here's a comparison of the early development of the Arctic front in the 12z and 18z, looks better. 

Next week is starting to look like it could be fun. Good trends today. Hopefully things continue to look good the next couple days on the models. It seems like we’re starting to lock in a bit more with less volatility run to run which is a good sign. 

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Next week is starting to look like it could be fun. Good trends today. Hopefully things continue to look good the next couple days on the models. It seems like we’re starting to lock in a bit more with less volatility run to run which is a good sign. 

Yeah, and its not being pushed back anymore it seems.

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Next week is starting to look like it could be fun. Good trends today. Hopefully things continue to look good the next couple days on the models. It seems like we’re starting to lock in a bit more with less volatility run to run which is a good sign. 

As I mentioned earlier I'm highly encouraged that there is no one bad trend the models are locking in on.  They are fluctuating within a range from cold or very cold  / dry to cold and snowy.  It appears the worst case being shown is still decent.  On the good end top tier cold and or snow are still on the table.

[snow_wizard]

BTW....I kept my streak of sub 50 highs going by an eyelash.  It could end up being 40 or 50 days when it's over.  For the record it came in at about 49.4 yesterday.  Phew!

[snow_wizard]

The 18z EPS shows cold air being more effectively delivered west of the Cascades than the 12z.

[MossMan]

58 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

I wish Mark Nelsen would come post here.  Does he have an alter ego maybe?  Or maybe he just doesn't want to be associated with some of the stuff here?

I heard he posted as DomeBuster back in the day. 

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The 18z EPS shows cold air being more effectively delivered west of the Cascades than the 12z.

I would love to see an image of that. Hard to imagine it showing us getting colder than what it has already.

[TheNewCulverJosh]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I heard he posted as DomeBuster back in the day. 

Probably, or Josh the Snowman.

[paulb/eugene]

[snow_wizard]

The EPS control is wicked cold.  Shows afternoon temps in the mid 20s for SEA next Thursday afternoon.

[RentonHill]

4 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

I would love to see an image of that. Hard to imagine it showing us getting colder than what it has already.

 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said:

Holy crap!  I hadn't looked at it that closely yet. Wow!

[Jbolin]

3 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said:

-2F at 15Kasl

[Blizzard777]

57 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

49/42 today. Have had some gusts +40mph today at times. Today might be the warmest day for a little while. 

Sounds like we were the only windy ones here in the South Sound.  Made it to 50* here as well. Drizzle , low clouds, sun breaks and repeat. 

[Fircrest]

1 hour ago, ..... said:

I work in this area too and I would say 80% want to get to their next fix.  Guess we probably aren't seeing it the same.

Tonights runs are going to be interesting.  Will the cold and snow be delayed yet again?  Pushed back again?

I work in park maintenance with people attempting to live in tents in our parks and it seems 90% have substance abuse issues, addiction and mental illness. Most don't want help or aren't capable of making a decision to improve their lives, unfortunately.  

[snow_wizard]

The control was insane on this run.  Major snowstorm and really cold.  The mean wasn't half bad either.

[MossMan]

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Holy crap!  I hadn't looked at it that closely yet. Wow!

Looks like I’m bordering on the pepto