February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[Kayla]

7 minutes ago, MossMan said:

This big ice pellet shower should help cool the ground and get it even more primed for what’s coming! 
I fueled up both vehicles this morning (that go out in the snow) and filled all my gas cans for the generator and plow...LETS DO THIS! 

I can never understand this. Why do people gas up their cars before winter storms?? If it's so bad then you aren't driving anywhere anyway. If it's not so bad why can't you just fill up at the gas station like any other day? Do people think the gas station tanks are going to freeze over or something?? 

[Perturbed Member]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I can’t think of a time a trend like this reversed within 5 days? The only saving grace is the EURO is the most aggressive. Though the 12Z GFS was a huge cave. If the GEM caves tonight and the northern trend continues then I think we have our answer.

Agree. The GFS was a big cave and the GEFS has been picking up more and more far north members too. We know this rarely ends well. Have to hope for a pull back tonight from the euro.

[Jesse]

Well that was fun. Looking forward to seeing 500 pictures of Mossmans snowy property next week!

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS for Friday morning...

 

[Timmy Supercell]

28 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Four feet of snow fell here during that event. Yes, please!

Wow. Old station here had 4.7" in February but the month before had 38". lol

[Timmy]

looks like the EPS isnt as bad of a low track for pdx

[snow_wizard]

Where is this crazy roller coaster actually going to end up?  This ECMEF run is great for Seattle all in all, but it's scary.  If subsequent runs can just walk the northward trend back a hair this could be amazing for a lot of us.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Operational:

 

VS EPS:

[Perturbed Member]

3 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

So now the 5-6 day maps are gospel because they show things shifting a bit??  No way man, time to relax and see how things go.  Everything is still on the table.

There is plenty of time left but we know from experience that these northward trends rarely reverse significantly. We still have a shot but IMO the odds are not in our favor. 

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Kayla said:

I can never understand this. Why do people gas up their cars before winter storms?? If it's so bad then you aren't driving anywhere anyway. If it's not so bad why can't you just fill up at the gas station like any other day? Do people think the gas station tanks are going to freeze over or something?? 

Power outages often happen with big snowstorms.

[TT-SEA]

EPS from the 12Z run yesterday morning, 00Z run, new 12Z run in order for Friday afternoon.

 

[TheNewCulverJosh]

1 minute ago, nwsnow said:

There is plenty of time left but we know from experience that these northward trends rarely reverse significantly. We still have a shot but IMO the odds are not in our favor. 

Right, but the odds never were anyway.  Enjoy the ride and have confidence things can and will change.  It isn't like these models are showing this for tonight or tomorrow.

I am intrigued by what Mr. Mark Nelsen has to say about things tonight.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, nwsnow said:

There is plenty of time left but we know from experience that these northward trends rarely reverse significantly. We still have a shot but IMO the odds are not in our favor. 

No reason to be too negative yet.

[Timmy Supercell]

25 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

 

[MossMan]

10 minutes ago, Kayla said:

I can never understand this. Why do people gas up their cars before winter storms?? If it's so bad then you aren't driving anywhere anyway. If it's not so bad why can't you just fill up at the gas station like any other day? Do people think the gas station tanks are going to freeze over or something?? 

I will have other fish to fry than worrying about stopping for gas. I absolutely hate it, and I hate running vehicles until a quarter tank. Also if we have a massive power outage issue like a few weeks ago the gas stations were not operating. I don’t want to have to search for a station with power as I’m running out of gas in my generator or truck. Nope! Things shut down here when things get bad unlike Montana. 
And I’m still driving to work, the animals still need to be cared for. Happened in November 2006, no gas stations in my area were open, I had to put my mower gas in my Tahoe to get to work. Preparing for the worse is not a bad thing. 

[Requiem]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

No reason to be too negative yet.

Honestly with the way things are going who’d blame him 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

10 minutes ago, Kayla said:

I can never understand this. Why do people gas up their cars before winter storms?? If it's so bad then you aren't driving anywhere anyway. If it's not so bad why can't you just fill up at the gas station like any other day? Do people think the gas station tanks are going to freeze over or something?? 

In 1996 power was out in a huge area for days and most stations had no back up generator.  I had to siphon gas from our car and lawn mower into my 4x4 to get to work.  

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

 

That is one CUTE cat.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS loop for the next week... looks like the arctic air is not going to make it to the west side.   Which is the reason for the massive amounts of snow now being shown.

 

[umadbro]

Oh good, Jim is here to tell us how to think and feel.

[Kayla]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Power outages often happen with big snowstorms.

Within hundreds of miles of your house and you're driving around with everything closed just for the fun of it?? It just doesn't make any logical sense to me.

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

I will have other fish to fry than worrying about stopping for gas. I absolutely hate it, and I hate running vehicles until a quarter tank. Also if we have a massive power outage issue like a few weeks ago the gas stations were not operating. I don’t want to have to search for a station with power as I’m running out of gas in my generator or truck. Nope! Things shut down here when things get bad unlike Montana. 
And I’m still driving to work, the animals still need to be cared for. 

 

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

In 1996 power was out in a huge area for days and most stations had no back up generator.  I had to siphon gas from our car and lawn mower into my 4x4 to get to work.  

That was me in 2006! Never again!! I always fill up before something big now. 

[Cloud]

11 minutes ago, Kayla said:

I can never understand this. Why do people gas up their cars before winter storms?? If it's so bad then you aren't driving anywhere anyway. If it's not so bad why can't you just fill up at the gas station like any other day? Do people think the gas station tanks are going to freeze over or something?? 

It’s more mental than anything. I have family that lives 20 miles apart north and south of me. I guess during snowstorms having a full tank of gas puts your mind at ease in case of emergencies. Besides I hate driving on 1/4 tank. 

[bainbridgekid]

May not be worth a lot without the Euro, but the high-res WRF still shows a very healthy CZ tonight for North King and South Snohomish County. Actually showing some 6" amounts in the center around Edmonds.

 

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Kayla said:

Within hundreds of miles of your house and you're driving around with everything closed just for the fun of it?? It just doesn't make any logical sense to me.

You run your vehicle for 4 days after your gas light comes on...Am I correct? Personal experience with not being able to find an open gas station. I had to work in 2006 no exceptions and it’s the same now. 

[seattleweatherguy]

1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

May not be worth a lot without the Euro, but the high-res WRF still shows a very healthy CZ tonight for North King and South Snohomish County. Actually showing some 6" amounts in the center around Edmonds.

 

Wow starting what time?

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

May not be worth a lot without the Euro, but the high-res WRF still shows a very healthy CZ tonight for North King and South Snohomish County. Actually showing some 6" amounts in the center around Edmonds.

 

North north north!!! 

[Esquimalt]

Anyone have the EPs snowfall maps? 

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

May not be worth a lot without the Euro, but the high-res WRF still shows a very healthy CZ tonight for North King and South Snohomish County. Actually showing some 6" amounts in the center around Edmonds.

 

Had to zoom in but it’s showing an 1”-1.5” here. This would be a nice surprise 

[Gummy]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

North north north!!! 

Don't be greedy, you're still in the darker green.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Esquimalt said:

Anyone have the EPs snowfall maps? 

 

[ttt]

7 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Within hundreds of miles of your house and you're driving around with everything closed just for the fun of it?? It just doesn't make any logical sense to me.

 

[Kayla]

7 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I will have other fish to fry than worrying about stopping for gas. I absolutely hate it, and I hate running vehicles until a quarter tank. Also if we have a massive power outage issue like a few weeks ago the gas stations were not operating. I don’t want to have to search for a station with power as I’m running out of gas in my generator or truck. Nope! Things shut down here when things get bad unlike Montana. 
And I’m still driving to work, the animals still need to be cared for. Happened in November 2006, no gas stations in my area were open, I had to put my mower gas in my Tahoe to get to work. Preparing for the worse is not a bad thing. 

That's fair. I can understand if you're vehicle is below a quarter of a tank and you want to fill up when a massive storm is imminent but that's not exactly the case here.

I'll just never understand the whole milk/bread/gas runs at just the mere sight of a pending storm.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS loop for the next week... looks like the arctic air is not going to make it to the west side.   Which is the reason for the massive amounts of snow now being shown.

 

Well looks like it develops into a solid onshore flow type situation by the end of next weekend. Some of our best snow setups are with an arctic front stalled to the north. Even last January wasn’t bad. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I’m not giving up yet. Would love to see some arctic air for once though. 

[snow drift]

Just now, Kayla said:

That's fair. I can understand if you're vehicle is below a quarter of a tank and you want to fill up when a massive storm is imminent but that's not exactly the case here.

I'll just never understand the whole milk/bread/gas runs at just the mere sight of a pending storm.

People don't do that around here. If it snows, people go on with their normal business.

[Prairiedog]

4 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

Right, but the odds never were anyway.  Enjoy the ride and have confidence things can and will change.  It isn't like these models are showing this for tonight or tomorrow.

I am intrigued by what Mr. Mark Nelsen has to say about things tonight.

It's why he is always pretty cautious, conservative in going out very far in his forecasts for these kinds of events.  Everyone was hollering at him  to update his last 7-day.  This is why.  Some on here dis Rod Hill unfairly but he's also been correct most of the time in these events.  He's called it and been correct and on the money most every time when we see these extreme snow and temp profiles and then watch them collapse. Both wait and they're patient.  They don't drink the kool aid.  These crazy extremes seldom actually happen here when progged out 10 days, 8 days and as we so often see, sooner than 6 days.  Once in a while the blind squirrel finds a nut but climo most of the time rules this time of year.  No, it's not over yet and there's still a chance .  Lets see how Rod ad Mark's 7-day actually work out.  I've seen this movie many times here.  Not too many good alternate endings.  Hoping for one but time will tell.  Mark hasn't been on the set last couple days.  Not sure about tonight. 

[MossMan]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS loop for the next week... looks like the arctic air is not going to make it to the west side.   Which is the reason for the massive amounts of snow now being shown.

 

It was over before it even began. Going to dump all of the gas i just bought and dump it onto the burn pile and have a huge fire! 

[Winterdog]

The Euro put a turd in our sock but it's the trend that really sucks.  Lots of snow for western Washington but I can see the northern shift pushing all of this north into BC very quickly.  I feel badly for the Oregon people but we all may be out of it by Friday anyway.  42 with ice pellets and my chin on the floor.

[Kayla]

7 minutes ago, MossMan said:

You run your vehicle for 4 days after your gas light comes on...Am I correct? Personal experience with not being able to find an open gas station. I had to work in 2006 no exceptions and it’s the same now. 

Haha no. Remind me never to tell you how low we fly our tanks down on aircraft...