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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


BLI snowman

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9 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

May not be worth a lot without the Euro, but the high-res WRF still shows a very healthy CZ tonight for North King and South Snohomish County. Actually showing some 6" amounts in the center around Edmonds.

 

ww_snow24.36.0000 (1).gif

Edmonds, you say??

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Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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EPS wasn’t as bad.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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1 minute ago, Snowdrift said:

People don't do that around here. If it snows, people go on with their normal business.

Yeah, definitely not here either. Bozeman hasn't even had a single "snow day" since the 70's. Different world east of the Cascades.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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The mood swings on here based on run to run solutions that’ll change the next run anyways are comical. We still don’t know what’s going to happen. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 minute ago, Kayla said:

Yeah, definitely not here either. Bozeman hasn't even had a single "snow day" since the 70's. Different world east of the Cascades.

Yeah -20F with 50MPH winds and sideways snow is just normal there. Here we would not have power or cell service for two weeks. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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6 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Haha no. Remind me never to tell you how low we fly our tanks down on aircraft...

I think it takes that one experience to cause this type of reaction.  In 1996 for 3 days there we're mabe 2 stations open in about a 15 mile radius and they ran out of fuel. There was also 2-4 feet of wet snow. It was the worst I'd ever saw the roads here. Cars we're abandoned in the lane on highway 16 lol. After experiencing that I always think about how big of a disaster something like 1880 would be for today's infrastructure. 

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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Don’t look beyond 96 hours on models.  Forecast Models lie satellites don’t.  Euro always over does snow forecast over 96 hours.  Cliff Mass always says it difficult to get lowland snow here and crazy to forecast lowland snow here.  💨❄️🌨⛷🏂

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7 minutes ago, Prairiedog said:

It's why he is always pretty cautious, conservative in going out very far in his forecasts for these kinds of events.  Everyone was hollering at him  to update his last 7-day.  This is why.  Some on here dis Rod Hill unfairly but he's also been correct most of the time in these events.  He's called it and been correct and on the money most every time when we see these extreme snow and temp profiles and then watch them collapse. Both wait and they're patient.  They don't drink the kool aid.  These crazy extremes seldom actually happen here when progged out 10 days, 8 days and as we so often see, sooner than 6 days.  Once in a while the blind squirrel finds a nut but climo most of the time rules this time of year.  No, it's not over yet and there's still a chance .  Lets see how Rod ad Mark's 7-day actually work out.  I've seen this movie many times here.  Not too many good alternate endings.  Hoping for one but time will tell.  Mark hasn't been on the set last couple days.  Not sure about tonight. 

Blog post tonight.

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Mossman just loves snow and part of his snow loving ritual is making unnecessary preparations. Helps get him excited probably. Nothing wrong with that. You don’t want to know what gets me excited. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Yeah -20F with 50MPH winds and sideways snow is just normal. Here we would not have power or cell service for two weeks. 

I honestly feel really bad for the kids. Buses run until -40F and recess isn't indoors until -10F.

Gotta be a hardy kid living here!

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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7 minutes ago, Kayla said:

That's fair. I can understand if you're vehicle is below a quarter of a tank and you want to fill up when a massive storm is imminent but that's not exactly the case here.

I'll just never understand the whole milk/bread/gas runs at just the mere sight of a pending storm.

Media effect is also part of the problem here. They tend to hype up snowstorms so much here that it makes people go to the stores and items are flying off the shelves. Couple years ago was quite a spectacle. 


I just quietly enjoyed the snow. 

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This reminds so much of the lead up to the big snowstorm on 2/11/19 here.    And its likely happening again on the same day... insane.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Gonna go play some golf to keep my mind off the forecast for a bit.

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Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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What can I buy to ride out the cold rain on the way 

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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6 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Yeah, definitely not here either. Bozeman hasn't even had a single "snow day" since the 70's. Different world east of the Cascades.

Same here.  Maybe a few delays with real heavy snow, but really no cancellations.  Freezing rain is a different story though.  And when I say "here", I mean Leavenworth.  Places that get less snow like Wenatchee do occasionally cancel school when there is heavier snow. 

I remember in Bellingham years ago, my wife from Toronto who I had just married, was absolutely stunned when a women's Christmas dinner was cancelled because there was a slight risk of rain mixed with snow.   

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10 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

The mood swings on here based on run to run solutions that’ll change the next run anyways are comical. We still don’t know what’s going to happen. 

The only thing I  will say with 90% confidence is the airmass will be cold. But even the latest euro run is giving me that uncertain feeling, that’s where the other 10% comes in. 

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You know what Portland isn’t out of the running yet I’m not giving up. 

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Reading the lead up to the 2/11/19 event now... the ECMWF was causing concerns with the Oregon folks with its northward shift and everyone was saying the GFS looked too dry.    History is repeating itself.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Mossman just loves snow and part of his snow loving ritual is making unnecessary preparations. Helps get him excited probably. Nothing wrong with that. You don’t want to know what gets me excited. 

For me like I said it all stems from the November 2006 event and working at the large senior community. No power for a week, people were using snowmobiles to get around, more of them than vehicles on the road. Roads closed everywhere due to downed trees. The fuel truck could not get to work to refill the very large generator that ran all of nursing and assisted living, I had to drive the work tractor to the fire station down the road and roll a barrel of diesel fuel they had into the bucket and take it back to work so we could keep functioning. Otherwise we were going to have to start evacuating the place. It was truly surreal, we were basically cut off from the outside world that week. I was not prepared, and like I said had to rob gas from my mower, etc to keep enough gas in my truck to get and from work. Added stress we did not need, if I had a full tank of gas and the senior community had a reserve of diesel fuel it would have been much easier. We all learned from those mistakes and it has stayed with me! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Mossman just loves snow and part of his snow loving ritual is making unnecessary preparations. Helps get him excited probably. Nothing wrong with that. You don’t want to know what gets me excited. 

ZONAL FLOW

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13 minutes ago, Kayla said:

I honestly feel really bad for the kids. Buses run until -40F and recess isn't indoors until -10F.

Gotta be a hardy kid living here!

Gotta start somewhere! What a better time to start training them the cold than pre-school in subzero temps.  😂 

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Reading the lead up to the 2/11/19 event now... the ECMWF was causing concerns with the Oregon folks with its northward shift and everyone was saying the GFS looked too dry.    History is repeating itself.

Yeah last nights super snowy ECMWF run for PDX was pretty ominous for down here. Had 2/19 deja vu.

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I mean, I know there is doom and gloom because this forum is for the entire PNW, but, as someone who lives just east of Seattle I can say I'm super stoked for the upcoming potential this week. I'm sorry that some of the more recent models have pushed the warm air into Oregon. But I'm pretty excited for those on the forum who live in Washington.  

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1 minute ago, SeanNyberg said:

I mean, I know there is doom and gloom because this forum is for the entire PNW, but, as someone who lives just east of Seattle I can say I'm super stoked for the upcoming potential this week. I'm sorry that some of the more recent models have pushed the warm air into Oregon. But I'm pretty excited for those on the forum who live in Washington.  

It does pay to live up there it seems.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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2 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

I mean, I know there is doom and gloom because this forum is for the entire PNW, but, as someone who lives just east of Seattle I can say I'm super stoked for the upcoming potential this week. I'm sorry that some of the more recent models have pushed the warm air into Oregon. But I'm pretty excited for those on the forum who live in Washington.  

Odds are pretty good for something up here in western WA...OR still has a chance for it to end up ok wouldn’t take much to be good down there but the odds are definitely lower. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

I mean, I know there is doom and gloom because this forum is for the entire PNW, but, as someone who lives just east of Seattle I can say I'm super stoked for the upcoming potential this week. I'm sorry that some of the more recent models have pushed the warm air into Oregon. But I'm pretty excited for those on the forum who live in Washington.  

Unfortunately it’s very possible your area will be screwed too. Once this trend gets going it can be a death knell for cold/snow in the lowlands. That’s why I have been warning about GFS and EURO solutions that showed 2-3’ of snow where I live. That southern stream gaining strength like what the EURO shows could end up great but it’s asking for trouble. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

I mean, I know there is doom and gloom because this forum is for the entire PNW, but, as someone who lives just east of Seattle I can say I'm super stoked for the upcoming potential this week. I'm sorry that some of the more recent models have pushed the warm air into Oregon. But I'm pretty excited for those on the forum who live in Washington.  

The next few model runs may dampen your excitement.  The northerly trend may just continue putting us all out of range.  

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