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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


BLI snowman

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5 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

How much did you get in 2016/2017?

I live in a decently high elevation so I don’t think it counts, but it was around 23”. 

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

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Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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5 minutes ago, Acer said:

The next few model runs may dampen your excitement.  The northerly trend may just continue putting us all out of range.  

Sure, it could.

But, to be honest, I have two parents who are 70 years old, my Dad has stage four lung cancer and they have their second dose of Pfizer vaccine in 10 days. So, have I loved snow in the PNW my entire life, from a young boy staring at the street light in Issaquah to an adult man staring at the street light in Bellevue, yes. Would I prefer to have this thing bust and keep the vaccine distribution running smoothly for my folks and the rest of the community, yes.

So, I am happy either way!

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10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Unfortunately it’s very possible your area will be screwed too. Once this trend gets going it can be a death knell for cold/snow in the lowlands. That’s why I have been warning about GFS and EURO solutions that showed 2-3’ of snow where I live. That southern stream gaining strength like what the EURO shows could end up great but it’s asking for trouble. 

I’d say tonight’s 0z is going to be quite critical - perhaps all models runs at this point are. But if tonight’s run continues to go north, even in the slightest, I’d be very concern from Seattle/Tacoma- south. 

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37 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

image.thumb.png.d1944411600d78a8c0cc295a51e3e72d.png

Honestly, this is nothing to complain about. If I had a time machine and could post it here two weeks ago, everyone would be giddy with excitement. The odds were always against the insanely cold and/or snowy solutions verifying.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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Still reading the 2/11/19 lead up... Jim was cheerleading strongly until the evening of 2/10 and then threw in the towel and gave up and said he was a "terrible mood" because everything just fell apart at the last minute.    24 hours later he was very happy again.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Still reading the 2/11/19 lead up... Jim was cheerleading strongly until the evening of 2/10 and then threw in the towel and gave up and said he was a "terrible mood" because everything just fell apart at the last minute.    24 hours later he was very happy again.  

Terrible mood... sounds like me right now 

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Longtime lurker and lifelong (over 50 years) resident of KVUO (in honor of the Flowman😆).  I appreciate the insight and knowledge that so many of you have.  I am a big weenie when it comes to cold and snow; but a realist in terms of the ‘needle getting threaded’ in the region that I/we live.  I have been to many areas of the US on business and minus the clouds and rain , which sometimes is a drag, we win! My profile pic is real- no filters, of Mt Hood on the approach to Portland.  How many people in the country can travel to 4 or 5 different and diverse weather and geographical areas with a couple hour drive.

I would never want to shovel snow for three months in a row; it would take the excitement out of the possibilities.  Based on the 100 pages on this thread, many of you are similar in that belief, I think.  Still a lot of time to get to a desirable outcome.  I root for the Canadian FTW- not realistic, but why not us?  Nothing wrong with cheering for an outcome.

Appreciate the Forum Ifred! I have laughed my head off and almost cried in the same day.  

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Rod Hill just updated his forecast on his website portlandweather.com

He's going with highs of 35/33/32 for PDX Thu-Sat.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy and dry overnight with freezing temps. 

Thursday: Becoming cloudy, an increasing chance of afternoon flurries or light snow. Gusty east winds. 

Thursday Night: Snow or flurries will be likely. Accumulations will be possible but are uncertain at this time. Gusty east winds blow. 

Friday: Cloudy, occasional snow or flurries with possible accumulations. Gusty east winds continue to blow. 

Friday Night: Cloudy, snow showers , gusty east winds. 

Saturday: Likely snow at times with a good chance of accumulation at all elevations, gusty east winds continue to blow. 

Saturday Night: Snow rates pick up during the evening as a front tries to push inland. Weather models show 4" or more of possible accumulation into Sunday morning. 

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I woke up 6 AM and my internet was down, so I went back to sleep. Now I've looked at all 12z models and my concern from last night seems to have been warranted. I see an unfortunate trend to cut off the arctic trough north of us as it elongates from east to west rather than digging down over us. Warm front is too far north. We better hope 00z models revert back away from this, or this will become a Washington only event if not even further north closer to Everett to Omak. We are nearing that 72 hour window where models will lock in. We better hope, pray, chant, and whatever else that the GFS/GEFS or GEFS/GEM blend is leading the way. If not, Winter is likely over folks for lowland snow.
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11 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Part of me was more excited for the model runs showing 850s below -20C. We get snow here all the time. It’s been a long time since we’ve seen that type of airmass 

I would actually trade in a lot less snow for more airmass tbh. We’re very close.

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5 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

Sure, it could.

But, to be honest, I have two parents who are 70 years old, my Dad has stage four lung cancer and they have their second dose of Pfizer vaccine in 10 days. So, have I loved snow in the PNW my entire life, from a young boy staring at the street light in Issaquah to an adult man staring at the street light in Bellevue, yes. Would I prefer to have this thing bust and keep the vaccine distribution running smoothly for my folks and the rest of the community, yes.

So, I am happy either way!

I'm sorry to hear your dad has lung cancer.  We just recently lost a good friend to covid and I and my wife, both in our 70's have so far been unable to even get scheduled for vaccines.  I hope your parents are able to get their 2nd vaccine as planned.  Like you I've been a snow freak as long as I can remember but I know in the big picture the importance of snow is quite far down the list.  Here's hoping for some snow and also timely vaccines for your parents.

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11 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Terrible mood... sounds like me right now 

Relax kid. You have been around for a couple of years now. You know that shifts like this in models aren't unusual. You can't look at each run as reality. Just one possible solution out of thousands of small variations at this range still. Try not to get too invested. 

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1 minute ago, FroYoBro said:

Relax kid. You have been around for a couple of years now. You know that shifts like this in models aren't unusual. You can't look at each run as reality. Just one possible solution out of thousands of small variations at this range still. Try not to get too invested. 

Especially given how volatile the models have been this winter. Would have been nice if they had settled down into a general trend today, but not really a surprise they haven’t.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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NAM is more south so.... Who knows? 🙃

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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7 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Relax kid. You have been around for a couple of years now. You know that shifts like this in models aren't unusual. You can't look at each run as reality. Just one possible solution out of thousands of small variations at this range still. Try not to get too invested. 

My thoughts exactly.  Those of us who are older have watched this movie before.

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Imagine being married to me... 😢

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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9 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

 

 

I'm in the pink!

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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I've been thinking about this terrible model agreement coming up, and remembered the ECMWF has a known bias to shove too much energy underneath a block.  If that holds true this time I would expect a delay on the breakout over the ocean (if it happens at all).  If the breakout is delayed it would probably be further south than currently progged.  Interestingly the GFS's problem on the 12z is it didn't dig enough energy far enough west.  May a compromise be in order?

As for Seattle...All of the big three models deliver well below normal temps even though they all have a very different look at the 500mb level.  Even the EPS mean shows 2 sub freezing max temps for Seattle, so I feel ok about Seattle's chances at some real winter.  Obviously an ECMWF like solution pushed south about 50 miles would be the big winner for most of us.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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10 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:
EPS seems to dump more than enough arctic air into the Gorge and Columbia Basin. Yes? I haven't seen the 850mb anomalies yet though. 500mb pattern looks like it.

I  think the EPS is stuck, this is up to 180.

I'm no expert, but they don't look bad to me. Loos pretty similar to the 00z and we were still cold

 

2018334833_14-kmEPSGlobalUnitedStates850hPaTempAnom.gif

195572.png?1673757432

 

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2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

F that you have bad luck. A 22 shell landed on your arm while you were sitting on the porch!!

It’s been a tough year!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

NAM ends warmer than the Euro as the southern stream tries to take over.  

It’s over. Even up here. And to top it off I have to look at Tom Brady’s face once again in February. Dark dark day. 😞

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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The NAM is pretty snowy for King County late Tuesday night and Wednesday FWIW.  I still don't really trust that model, but can we trust any of them right now.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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