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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


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3 minutes ago, wxmet said:

snod.conus.png

Holy crap!

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Things stay generally chilly for days on this run.  Freezing nights would mean slow snow melt in the shade.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, Cloud said:

Looking at these runs on the Euro and GFS, it’s amazing what a 25-50 miles shifts can do. 
 

18z was actually really good imo. 

A really good blend.  Very often the ECMWF and GFS meet in the middle.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Got up to 48F here today with a little bit of sun earlier. Hopefully that's the warmest it gets for a couple weeks.

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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3 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

If that CAA is as strong as the GFS suggests then the convective potential will be off the charts.  Definitely has thundersnow possibilities somewhere.

Paine Field dewpoint dropped from 35 to 28 in the last half hour! i am excited about tonight actually.

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From SEA NWS:

20210207_Cold.thumb.jpeg.46e2e97c4c1b38c628ef58a5b409ca90.jpeg

20210207_WindChill.thumb.jpeg.95a6ad8c235aadf12c96bb69a5dc89ce.jpeg

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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5 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

If that CAA is as strong as the GFS suggests then the convective potential will be off the charts.  Definitely has thundersnow possibilities somewhere.

Would like to see a thundersnow during a blizzard. So far I've only had one in May in 2015.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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7 minutes ago, kokaneekidz said:

Paine Field dewpoint dropped from 35 to 28 in the last half hour! i am excited about tonight actually.

Was about to post that.

Went from 45/35 an hour ago to 43/28 now. I'll definitely be watching the radar and observations closely tonight!❄️

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

I think you worry almost as much about having literally everyone on board as you do about the models and the actual weather!   Maybe 45% to 55%.  ;)

Probably why everyone one of love Jim. This place would not be the same without him or you're nutty self!

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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7 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

On the dry side for my neck of the woods. And that’s been a general trend, which probably says something. ☹️

Lol you guys aren’t due...WE ARE! But who knows this thing could go either way...Snow only north of the border or cold and dry from Eugene north. We will see probably something in between those 2 extremes. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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24 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Forum mood improvement 🍔

148200637_10159212470371407_7096004014814752476_o.jpg

I might have picked the right time to visit Bend! I hope everyone gets hammered but I’m starting to get a bit excited for what awaits me next week. I am assuming the ratio out there should be a bit higher than 10:1. Especially when it shows decent precip with temps in the teens and below 🥶 

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Lol you guys aren’t due...WE ARE! But who knows this thing could go either way...Snow only north of the border or cold and dry from Eugene north. We will see probably something in between those 2 extremes. 

It's rarely so cut and dry, I use the same "method" for model runs as I do for cold/snow potential.

Go with a blend of the most consistent runs and see what happens, we so rarely ever get the extremes the models spit out no matter the outcome. 

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Currently cloudy and 41 after a high of 44. 
DP 36. 
.02” of melted frozen precip (like what was on my deck earlier) so far on the day. 
 

0701CC3D-89FB-434B-BA18-94C50979EFAE.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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5 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Lol you guys aren’t due...WE ARE! But who knows this thing could go either way...Snow only north of the border or cold and dry from Eugene north. We will see probably something in between those 2 extremes. 

More in one’s own backyard is always better!

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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8 minutes ago, Cjmessling said:

I might have picked the right time to visit Bend! I hope everyone gets hammered but I’m starting to get a bit excited for what awaits me next week. I am assuming the ratio out there should be a bit higher than 10:1. Especially when it shows decent precip with temps in the teens and below 🥶 

It's usually more than 10:1 east of the cascades for sure. Been in several snows that were officially 20:1.

The models still show real weak amounts at my place, just doubting I get 3" while Bend gets that much.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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4 minutes ago, JBolin said:

It's rarely so cut and dry, I use the same "method" for model runs as I do for cold/snow potential.

Go with a blend of the most consistent runs and see what happens, we so rarely ever get the extremes the models spit out no matter the outcome. 

Yea...I was meaning to say something in between the 2 extremes is the likely outcome here. Highly doubt we get 500 thicknesses and sub 20 high temps in the western lowlands...or that nobody gets any snow south of the border either. Gonna be something in the middle. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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7 minutes ago, JBolin said:

It's rarely so cut and dry, I use the same "method" for model runs as I do for cold/snow potential.

Go with a blend of the most consistent runs and see what happens, we so rarely ever get the extremes the models spit out no matter the outcome. 

Overall trend has been pretty consistent in saying I get the shaft when it comes to snow this time. I guess I’ll have to settle for single-digit minima and highs in the teens as a consolation prize (assuming that pans out).

P.S. And I’m still rooting for an unforecast surface low or two to spin up in the cold outflow on the BC coast. Some of those model runs are cumulative over a week out, and we all know how accurate model runs a week out typically are.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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8 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Currently cloudy and 41 after a high of 44. 
DP 36. 
.02” of melted frozen precip (like what was on my deck earlier) so far on the day. 
 

0701CC3D-89FB-434B-BA18-94C50979EFAE.jpeg

Kinda looks like graupel. Get that all the time in the Spring down here ;)

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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3 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

Haven’t broke 40°F today, I wonder when I will see 40°F again..

It’s been hailing on and off for hours now. Skylight is leaking.. good timing. 

Mostly off... just a few quick hail showers.    The last one was a little more impressive but only lasted for a couple minutes.    It was 41 here earlier... 39 now.   43 in North Bend.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The GFS ensemble mean is still -7.5 on the 15th.  Really impressive run!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Looks like an impressive cluster of ensemble members stays below -10 forever on this run.  Don't see that very often.  A full blown bust seems pretty unlikely now, but you never know of course.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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