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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


BLI snowman

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1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

For those who don't remember, in January 2011 models showed a series of lows making landfall far enough South for literally 2-3 feet of snow from PDX to Everett. It got within about 4 days and then the PV pushed West of BC out over the ocean instead if digging South over us which forced the lows further North. Seattle got 3" of overunning snow and Bellingham got about 9" from two storms but that was about it.

Yeah I got 4” that was melting just hours later. Yuck. 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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3 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

For those who don't remember, in January 2011 models showed a series of lows making landfall far enough South for literally 2-3 feet of snow from PDX to Everett. It got within about 4 days and then the PV pushed West of BC out over the ocean instead if digging South over us which forced the lows further North. Seattle got 3" of overunning snow and Bellingham got about 9" from two storms but that was about it.

Was the major ice storm Jan 2012? 

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Well looks like the 00z runs will take this thing behind the woodshed and put it out of its misery. At Least we ll get some sleep this week. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

For those who don't remember, in January 2011 models showed a series of lows making landfall far enough South for literally 2-3 feet of snow from PDX to Everett. It got within about 4 days and then the PV pushed West of BC out over the ocean instead if digging South over us which forced the lows further North. Seattle got 3" of overunning snow and Bellingham got about 9" from two storms but that was about it.

9 inches? Sweet!

😈

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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3 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

I mentioned the EURO 20 times while everyone was sucking each other's #(@(#, then it runs and you all act like the world is over.  This forum....geez....

Drinking and posting again?

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2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

So that's 1 model and the outlier. Others keep us cold and snowy. The Euro has been going back and forth as of late so I'm not buying it yet.

You're 100% accurate on the model inconsistencies. And even after the Euro run today, I mentioned that I'm 90% confidence things will work out. That still hasn't changed, just a bit unsettling as I'm not buying into anything yet, good or bad. Product of being burned too many times. 

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Apparently we all forgot how much fluctuation there was between the major "players" leading up to Feb '19, the ECMWF waffled so much, teenagers were going bald. 

The noticeable shift is a bit concerning but we see that so much around here that it's about as commonplace as a speed trap. 

Want to see the 00Z/6Z before truly giving up.

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1 minute ago, Christensen87 said:

Was the major ice storm Jan 2012? 

Yes. Stayed all snow up my way but further south got hammered with ice. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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4 minutes ago, nwsnow said:

The euro is pretty much threatening to make this entire thing a non event for most of the lowlands. Bellingham and BC will probably be the big winners in the end.

Pray that the euro is confused and that the GFS will come out winning but betting against the euro in the  mid range isn't something I like doing.

It won't be much here either. The majority of the cold will be shunted east.

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Just now, Christensen87 said:

Was the major ice storm Jan 2012? 

Yeah that was 1/18/12.

The 2011 storm was on January 11th.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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In my mind it's a toss up whether the 18z ECMWF is better or worse than the 12z.  At first blush it appeared to be worse, but the thing that's better is the small ULL that breaks through the offshore block on the 12z don't do so on this run.  As a result it's possible the Canadian ULL could dig further south before really breaking out over the ocean.  The handling of that small ULL further offshore could be our saving grace.  Too bad the run only goes to hour 90.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

So this whole thing is cancelled because of a Euro run that shows things a bit warmer? Do I have that right?

The 18z Euro isn't as bad as it really appears for the reason I stated in my last post.  This thing still has a good shot.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

In my mind it's a toss up whether the 18z ECMWF is better or worse than the 12z.  At first blush it appeared to be worse, but the thing that's better is the small ULL that breaks through the offshore block on the 12z don't do so on this run.  As a result it's possible the Canadian ULL could dig further south before really breaking out over the ocean.  The handling of that small ULL further offshore could be our saving grace.  Too bad the run only goes to hour 90.

I was wondering that too... seems like not having that ULL get pulled in would eventually be better.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, Cloud said:

You're 100% accurate on the model inconsistencies. And even after the Euro run today, I mentioned that I'm 90% confidence things will work out. That still hasn't changed, just a bit unsettling as I'm not buying into anything yet, good or bad. Product of being burned too many times. 

Lol so true. That's why I always tell myself to stop looking in the long range and every winter well here I am. 

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6 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

So this whole thing is cancelled because of a Euro run that shows things a bit warmer? Do I have that right?

Yes. 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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3 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Remember the three rules:

1) It's called clown range for a reason.

2) It's never too late for a rugpull.

3) Lowland snow is hard to get. There are olive growers in the Willamette Valley for a reason.

 

Doesn’t make sense. I thought the Central Valley got kolder then us all the time :(

 

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3 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

Seems to me like it's mostly from the same people that have done it for a decade

 

Don’t look at me...🤣

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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