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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


BLI snowman

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19 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Nope, winter cancelled for anyone south of Northern Snohomish County. 😈

Fixed it for you! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 minute ago, MV_snow said:

So why do the WA posters hate the 18z euro? I understand why OR posters do, but it still gives Seattle at least a half foot.

You can't just look at what the run shows in terms of snow, the trends of not digging the trough far enough south and less cold making it into the low lands is dangerous. Sooner or later it will result in the southern stream taking over. 00z Euro last night looked great for PDX but myself and other posters were concerned with some of the trends and based on today's runs, it seems quite justified. We need to see the euro backpedal and dig that energy further south or this will quickly become a BC and Whatcom County special with 45-50 degree rain for everyone else.

I'm not deliberately trying to be negative or troll. Of course things could still workout, its just that I've seen this before and it usually doesn't go our way when the models trend this way. Hoping the GFS or the GEM/ICON camp are right.

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2 minutes ago, Acer said:

Yeah it looks that way but you know how the Euro rules the roost.  If it ain’t showing on the Euro it’s less likely to happen

Yeah I know. It's like God or something. I did mean the 18z EPS with the cluster of lows to the south

Anyway hoping for a blend with the GFS and the UKMET (2nd best model right?) 😀

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195572.png?1673757432

 

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7 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

00z 3km NAM through tomorrow morning... Very borderline for a WWA.

nam-nest-seattle-total_snow_10to1-2807200.png

Dot of blue over my house! 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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6 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Fills in a little more by Tuesday AM...

nam-nest-seattle-total_snow_10to1-2875600.png

If only models could actually down details like that. My house is in the middle of that 6" spot. 😂

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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29 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

If you really want to see something funny pick the 4 or 5 day period on the ecmwf and scroll back 4 runs.  After that ask yourself if 1 run is a trend.

This.

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25 minutes ago, Acer said:

I’d be more than satisfied with that outcome but it would sure be easier to buy into if the trend wasn’t moving in the wrong direction.

For KBLI:

90% chance of over 1"

86% chance of over 2"

64% chance of over 4"

46% chance of over 6"

Not bad… though that is over a week, so those numbers are not so impressive as they might at first seem.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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35 minutes ago, MV_snow said:

So why do the WA posters hate the 18z euro? I understand why OR posters do, but it still gives Seattle at least a half foot.

Agree with Omegaraptor but personally would love to see us all get obliterated! Sucks when just a few get in on the fun 

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4 minutes ago, Christensen87 said:

Does anyone remember December 2008? Crazy east wind storm with blizzard conditions in Enumclaw. I remember, I came home from CWU to visit my parents and it was insane. This looks like it could be another event...I’m excited. 

I was at CWU with you during that time! 2006-2011

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2 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Well a western Washington snowstorm only is looking more likely, at this point I'm worried it will go north even more and give us all rain.

According to Matt nobody south of the border will see anything. 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

According to Matt nobody south of the border will see anything. 

I do think there could be a quick transition somewhere, but yeah, anything “prolonged” I suspect will be confined to immediate outflow areas up north.  

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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