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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


BLI snowman

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Didn't Bellingham have highs in the teens last January? 

Yes while I had highs in the mid 20’s, and Seattle was near 40! 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I'm old enough to remember eating a massive bag of dicks in December 1996 while roofs were caving in from snow in Bellingham.

The marina collapsing taking 45 boats along with it in Seattle was one of the most memorable one from 1996. That will live on forever. 

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By tomorrow night 850s drop to -9.5 in this area so any precip that falls will be snow from then on.  This is it!

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I'm old enough to remember eating a massive bag of dicks in December 1996 while roofs were caving in from snow in Bellingham.

I was 8 for that storm... I would love to experience something of that caliber once more in my lifetime

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Ah, the EURO wait; nerve wracking. Decent that models mostly stood their ground though.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Runs over. Lock it in? 😁 I wonder if the parallel would be similar if it wasn't dead. 

 

snku_acc.us_state_wa (9).png

floop-gfs-2021020800.snku_acc.us_state_wa.gif

floop-gfs-2021020800.snku_acc.us_state_or.gif

snku_acc.us_state_or.png

4.5’ for Bend!

Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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31 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

He's getting snow. Probably knocked out his dish. 

BTW wtf is up with this run... 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_46.png

It’s not an unreasonable solution. But neither is the Euro. Moment of truth in 35 minutes.

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I'm old enough to remember eating a massive bag of dicks in December 1996 while roofs were caving in from snow in Bellingham.

The one and only time I ever remember being under a blizzard warning! That was such a fascinating event...had about a foot on the ground, the afternoon of the 28th the temp had warmed to 36 and I thought for sure it was going to be a non event...Then the temp started dropping rapidly and within 4-5hrs we went from 36 to 16 degrees and it started snowing...And it was hardcore for 10-12hrs...Woke up to no power and feet of snow. Was truly insane!! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

The one and only time I ever remember being under a blizzard warning! That was such a fascinating event...had about a foot on the ground, the afternoon of the 28th the temp had warmed to 36 and I thought for sure it was going to be a non event...Then the temp started dropping rapidly and within 4-5hrs we went from 36 to 16 degrees and it started snowing...And it was hardcore for 10-12hrs...Woke up to no power and feet of snow. Was truly insane!! 

Yup...the low approaching from the south pulled Arctic air in over us before the precip began.    Too bad it warmed up so fast after the big (last) event in that sequence.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Down to 37 here now and the radar looks interesting.

Seems a second CZ may be forming just East of Everett. I've seen this happen quite a few times before where an initial CZ will slide South and then another one forms further North. Worth watching what happens with the shower activity in the Straight as well. Sometimes that can help energize the CZ.

 

WUNIDS_map.gif

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, Phil said:

It’s not an unreasonable solution. But neither is the Euro. Moment of truth in 35 minutes.

I'm pulling for a blend.  That might be the most likely of all.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Question for the more adept trackers— mesoscales usually come around once operationals are in agreement, right?

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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I'm cautiously optimistic after seeing the 00z GFS, but I'm more than worried about getting warm nosed. I'm also concerned about getting straight up ZR rather than snow. That would be the worst case scenario. Bring it home EURO.

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17 minutes ago, mtep said:

Noob question: is the reason that the Bham area is getting shafted on the maps snow-wise because the outflow winds are modeled to be too strong for much precip to make it up here?

I know SnowWizard will cite 101 examples where it's not the case, but it seems Whatcom County tends to miss out more often than not on the "regional" events. Usually, if the outflow winds are strong enough to send cold air pouring into the central Puget Sound and beyond, it's just bitterly cold and dry up here. And geographically-speaking, it's close to 400 miles from BLI to Eugene (for example). Not a lot of storm tracks will deliver the goods to all of us.

I'm right on the border in the outflow blast zone, and most of my more memorable snowfalls tend to come when the cold air is slow-bleeding out of the canyon, and everyone south of the Chukanuts is getting cold-ish rain. Despite all the model waffling on southern vs. northern track, the BLI-CYWL gradient has pretty consistently been 20+ on every run. Which is why I'm not expecting much. Just cold and windy. I hope to be wrong.

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The Euro had better be good or else!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I was going to say something, but words fail me. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

00z GFS shows 14 of the next 16 days being below 40 degrees. 8 days below 35. Lows bottom out at 16 on Saturday.

I have to say, a few days ago it looked like we were going to warm up by next weekend. Now it's starting to looking like Friday/next weekend might be the coldest part of the entire snap, at least according to some models.

gfs-operational-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-2742400.png

So we don't go above freezing again at night at all until spring right? hopefully?!

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2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

00z GFS shows 14 of the next 16 days being below 40 degrees. 8 days below 35. Lows bottom out at 16 on Saturday.

I have to say, a few days ago it looked like we were going to warm up by next weekend. Now it's starting to looking like Friday/next weekend might be the coldest part of the entire snap, at least according to some models. Pretty nice.

gfs-operational-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-2742400.png

Pushing it back. Pushing it back. The story of our “winter”

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:


Wowzers!

 

cold.png

I could be wrong but I believe SEA hasn't had a high below 32 since February 6, 2014. Would be insane to see 5 in a row.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, North_County said:

I know SnowWizard will cite 101 examples where it's not the case, but it seems Whatcom County tends to miss out more often than not on the "regional" events. Usually, if the outflow winds are strong enough to send cold air pouring into the central Puget Sound and beyond, it's just bitterly cold and dry up here. And geographically-speaking, it's close to 400 miles from BLI to Eugene (for example). Not a lot of storm tracks will deliver the goods to all of us.

I'm right on the border in the outflow blast zone, and most of my more memorable snowfalls tend to come when the cold air is slow-bleeding out of the canyon, and everyone south of the Chukanuts is getting cold-ish rain. Despite all the model waffling on southern vs. northern track, the BLI-CYWL gradient has pretty consistently been 20+ on every run. Which is why I'm not expecting much. Just cold and windy. I hope to be wrong.

Very accurate.  The only real exceptions are situations where we get multiple cold shots and multiple pattern resets where everyone gets hit at different times.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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More good news.
 
00z GEFS(ensembles) Surface temps coldest yet for PDX, GORGE signaling a major low level arctic blast. For the mean(average of 30 ensemble members) this is astoundingly cold!
 
Surface temps, lowest high/low temps
Seattle - 25.8 F / 17.9 F (Cluster 19.4 F to 14.0 F)
Portland - 22.6 F / 15.6 F (Cluster 15.8 F to 10.4 F)
Bellingham - 18.3 F / 6.9 F (Cluster 10.4 F to 3.2 F)
The Dalles - 13.4 F / 6.8 F (Cluster 14 F to 5 F)
Eugene - 32.2 F / 22.6 F (Cluster 23 F to 15.8 F)
Salem - 26.7 F / 17.2 F (Cluster 23 F to 12.2 F)
Yakima - 15.0 F / 10.2 F (Cluster 14 F to 5 F)
Spokane - 9.5 F / 1.0 F (Cluster 5 F to 2.2 F)
Olympia - 25.5 F / 16.7 F (Cluster 19.4 F to 14 F)
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Ok gonna assume the EURO was absolute garbage lol the suspense is too much :)

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I heard each one was a replica of Tom Brady's

Tommmmmmmm 😍🥰

  • Weenie 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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