February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Oh yeah, I was going to say. I hope Bellingham gets lots of snow. They are going to be very cold no matter what. 

[North_County]

28 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Didn't Bellingham have highs in the teens last January? 

Yes, but it was mostly dry. I guess if you're in it for cold, that's okay. For most people, dry cold is like a tie in hockey, though.

 

(I don't really know hockey. I'm guessing a tie is relatively mundane and disappointing?)

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

4 minutes ago, North_County said:

I know SnowWizard will cite 101 examples where it's not the case, but it seems Whatcom County tends to miss out more often than not on the "regional" events. Usually, if the outflow winds are strong enough to send cold air pouring into the central Puget Sound and beyond, it's just bitterly cold and dry up here. And geographically-speaking, it's close to 400 miles from BLI to Eugene (for example). Not a lot of storm tracks will deliver the goods to all of us.

I'm right on the border in the outflow blast zone, and most of my more memorable snowfalls tend to come when the cold air is slow-bleeding out of the canyon, and everyone south of the Chukanuts is getting cold-ish rain. Despite all the model waffling on southern vs. northern track, the BLI-CYWL gradient has pretty consistently been 20+ on every run. Which is why I'm not expecting much. Just cold and windy. I hope to be wrong.

I lived in Whatcom County for almost 30 years.  I have seen that scenario a lot.  Often Whatcom doesn't score until later systems come in.  1989 is a classic example.  Bitterly cold with huge winds, especially North County.  Maybe 1/2 inch of snow.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

8 minutes ago, Phil said:

15 minutes

I'm ready!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The Euro had better be good or else!

Tonight is the night it blinks!

[Perturbed Member]

GFS, GEM, UKMET look nice, even the ICON was acceptable. Hopefully the Euro will come to its senses soon. 

[Jesse]

6 minutes ago, North_County said:

Yes, but it was mostly dry. I guess if you're in it for cold, that's okay. For most people, dry cold is like a tie in hockey, though.

 

(I don't really know hockey. I'm guessing a tie is relatively mundane and disappointing?)

I know we can debate this all day and it comes down to personal preferences, but from a rarity perspective I've seen more 4-6" snowfalls around here than I have true arctics fronts with free air temps advecting below 20 by a pretty large margin. Of course when they go together is best case scenario.

[OysterPrintout]

You really gotta wonder how long we can have this standoff. Feels like a blink is imminent. Rooting for it to be the euro.

[SouthHillFrosty]

WHO IS READY FOR AN EPIC EURO RUN!!!!

[Brennan]

5 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

I lived in Whatcom County for almost 30 years.  I have seen that scenario a lot.  Often Whatcom doesn't score until later systems come in.  1989 is a classic example.  Bitterly cold with huge winds, especially North County.  Maybe 1/2 inch of snow.

Home videos per my pops shows at least 2-3” in their backyard with a temp if 5* on the morning of Feb 1 or 2...  near lake whatcom.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, North_County said:

Yes, but it was mostly dry. I guess if you're in it for cold, that's okay. For most people, dry cold is like a tie in hockey, though.

Actually, there was about 5" of squeaky-cold powder on the ground here that morning.

An 18/7 day would be fun, but I really hope there is at least some snow to go with it. I’m rooting for a surface low or two to spin up as the cold outflow interacts with the ocean. It’s happened before.

Our other big chance will probably be after the event weakens and those to the south of us switch back to rain. Just hope the latter won’t be a short-lived slushfest. You could well hang on to the cold in Sumas for several days longer than we do in Bellingham.

[Slushy Inch]

Such an anticipated Euro run, Portland or Seattle will get dumped on.

[Brennan]

Man, Walla Walla doesn’t get big snows very often but if the GFS plays out they’d have over 2’ of snow. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Looks like roads are covered over Tiger Mountain.

Roads are covered here too.

[MWG]

19 minutes ago, Cloud said:

I'm sure it will be fine for you as details are still being ironed out  

Probably! 

[Phil]

Dr. No is running.

[GHweatherChris]

WWA was justified.

[Bryant]

It's unfortunate that this whole forum can't score at once, but it's just the reality. PDX and SEA can score, and a lot of people seem to think that's "everyone", but we'll be dry and cold up here when that happens, which really isn't enjoyable. SEA and BLI can score, but PDX will be left out

[Bryant]

3 minutes ago, Brennan said:

Home videos per my pops shows at least 2-3” in their backyard with a temp if 5* on the morning of Feb 1 or 2...  near lake whatcom.

Your parents place is an exception a lot of the time. They are in a prime location for outflow + precip

[SouthHillFrosty]

2 minutes ago, Bryant said:

It's unfortunate that this whole forum can't score at once, but it's just the reality. PDX and SEA can score, and a lot of people seem to think that's "everyone", but we'll be dry and cold up here when that happens, which really isn't enjoyable. SEA and BLI can score, but PDX will be left out

Y’all scored last year and nobody else did. It will be alright

[Blizzard777]

I so look forward to the first action verb that greets me on the euro run

[bainbridgekid]

14 minutes ago, Bryant said:

It's unfortunate that this whole forum can't score at once, but it's just the reality. PDX and SEA can score, and a lot of people seem to think that's "everyone", but we'll be dry and cold up here when that happens, which really isn't enjoyable. SEA and BLI can score, but PDX will be left out

Everyone can score, just not usually from the same storm. Bellingham may see a few inches of snow Wednesday going into the cold for example.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Will it happen again this year?

 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 1

[North_County]

8 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I know we can debate this all day and it comes down to personal preferences, but from a rarity perspective I've seen more 6"+ snowfalls around here than I have true arctics fronts and temps below 20 by a pretty large margin. Of course when they go together is best case scenario.

Fair enough. I hit single digits last winter but had almost no snow. I'll take the powder and you can have the cold this time. Deal?

 

(I also realize I had 3 inches in December that hung around just long enough to give me a white Christmas, so I'm really not complaining even if it sounds like it)

[Bryant]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Y’all scored last year and nobody else did. It will be alright

You took my post out of context obviously

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEPS(Canadian ensembles) supports a major backdoor arctic blast

[snow_wizard]

Man that c-zone is close!

[Blizzard777]

6 minutes ago, Bryant said:

It's unfortunate that this whole forum can't score at once, but it's just the reality. PDX and SEA can score, and a lot of people seem to think that's "everyone", but we'll be dry and cold up here when that happens, which really isn't enjoyable. SEA and BLI can score, but PDX will be left out

I’ve got my best man on that now to solve how we all can score! 

[Meatyorologist]

Pretty major differences between the Euro and the GFS for just 24 hours out. Lots of uncertainty still.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z GEPS(Canadian ensembles) supports a major backdoor arctic blast

Indeed.  The GFS and GEM ensembles are both really cold.

[Kolk1604]

I'm nervous guys! Hoping for the best!

Bring us home Rob!

[Shawn344]

5 minutes ago, Bryant said:

It's unfortunate that this whole forum can't score at once, but it's just the reality. PDX and SEA can score, and a lot of people seem to think that's "everyone", but we'll be dry and cold up here when that happens, which really isn't enjoyable. SEA and BLI can score, but PDX will be left out

I definitely feel this. I’m from Marysville WA and I’m almost always in the twilight zone because north sound events I’m just a tad too far south and then south events I’m a tad too far north so I’ll always hear things like “north sound who just missed out on last event it’s your turn” but I will miss out on that one as well. It is what it is but it’s a frequent disappointment in this area that’s for sure lol 

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Man that c-zone is close!

Rarely have I seen the PSCZ sits over me for this long. Typically it's further north. Wish it was a bit colder. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, Bryant said:

You took my post out of context obviously

I get what you are saying. It would be nice to have a Bellingham to Medford snowstorm. It just isn’t possible which sucks. Snowstorms out here aren’t equal

[Deweydog]

How are the weeklies looking?

[Blizzard777]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

Rarely have I seen the PSCZ sits over me for this long. Typically it's further north. Wish it was a bit colder. 

Mine evaporated.....ran out of quarters 

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

I’ve got my best man on that now to solve how we all can score! 

Beavis and butthead- never gonna score - Bing video

This is what I thought about .

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Pretty major differences between the Euro and the GFS for just 24 hours out. Lots of uncertainty still.

Looks like the ECMWF is actually stronger with the blocking over AK.  That should be better you would think.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

1 minute ago, North_County said:

Fair enough. I hit single digits last winter but had almost no snow. I'll take the powder and you can have the cold this time. Deal?

 

(I also realize I had 3 inches in December that hung around just long enough to give me a white Christmas, so I'm really not complaining even if it sounds like it)

I wonder what type of pattern it would take to send in mild rain up here and spill dry Arctic air into Oregon. The best regional patterns are those where the ridge starts with a negative tilt allowing a low to jump over it then leans into the coast as the low makes it south from Prince Rupert to Portland. When you have that ridge alignment the low will take more of a North-South track, though eventually it usually shifts to the SE somewhere in OR.