Perturbed Member Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 The first low looks really messy in PDX. Lots of sleet and ice. Right on the boundary. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said: Yeah and by Saturday 10 PM, the highest temps get is 35. Mainly uppers 20s and low 30s. Not as cold, but no surge of warm air. This seems more realistic imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said: I don't even think there was a single GFS ensemble member as warm as the Euro is at day 5. This is true. EPS will be interesting. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, hawkstwelve said: Technically, BLI to PDX scores next weekend. It's like it heard us talking about it. @Bryant I take back what I said. Portland to Bellingham score! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 6 minutes ago, smerfylicious said: The Euro went, in a span of 24 hours, from the greatest winter of some of our lifetimes to a total rug pull for anyone south of the Columbia River (with a big arctic rug pull for Washington as well). Incredible disagreement with its own modeling. It's a great run for us if you look at the actual observed weather. Lots of snow and freezing high temps. No unfavorable trend. The offshore block held up better also. 3 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Gotta be some impressive 150 hour snow totals for the puget sound 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: The Euro is the best model...except for this run. It literally completely flipped the pattern from the previous run. Nothing is even close to resembling this output. It’s a significant change, but it’s not a complete flip. It’s a nod to a more prominent Pacific influence, which is always a possibility in these battle ground setups. Worth noting that a couple days ago the Euro was looking somewhat like a cold outlier with other models lagging behind... 5 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Technically, BLI to PDX scores next weekend. It's like it heard us talking about it. Incredible run for us really. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 7 minutes ago, Phil said: This is what I told myself 2 weeks ago, when every GEFS/CMC ensemble member had a blizzard here and the Euro had a flat wave in the Carolinas. You can probably guess who won that battle. The GEFS/CMC! I saw South Carolina got snow last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Look at the surface stuff guys! 500mb DOES NOT tell the story here. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Good run for W. WA still. Would be a shame if we get hosed for a 3rd straight year, but at least someone would get a winter this year. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtep Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 44 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: Will it happen again this year? Wtf I should've gone to Padden that winter. I had no idea. Those people have way more trust in that ice than I would though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OysterPrintout Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 On this run the little spin off ull that leads to the thu/fri snowstorm on the GFS looks like the 18z euro in the sense that it actually ends up WAY north but the euro kind of does its own thing after that with what remains. Just an entirely different setup at hour 72 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Radar looking very active around Port Townsend and seems to be heading toward Everett. Might get interesting here in an hour or so. 3 1 Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Looking at the ECMWF a bit deeper and comparing it with the 12z run, in the 00z run there is a weaker low over the Pacific with a weaker trough that drops down the B.C. that doesn't dig enough west. In previous ECMWF runs, the trough digging out west created a path for the Pacific low to phase and strength the western extent of the TPV while it dropped south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fubario Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: It's a great run for us if you look at the actual observed weather. Lots of snow and freezing high temps. No unfavorable trend. The offshore block held up better also. when i run for political office i'm hiring u as my spokesperson. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 I'm happy with this run. A lot of things changed and I think the 12z will have more changes. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, mtep said: Wtf I should've gone to Padden that winter. I had no idea. Those people have way more trust in that ice than I would though. @Brennan, @bainbridgekid, and I have skated on Lake Whatcom. That was a lot more sketchy than Padden however 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said: On this run the little spin off ull that leads to the thu/fri snowstorm on the GFS looks like the 18z euro in the sense that it actually ends up WAY north but the euro kind of does its own thing after that with what remains. Just an entirely different setup at hour 72 Yeah, I'm going to throw this out if the EPS doesn't agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, fubario said: when i run for political office i'm hiring u as my spokesperson. You'd have to be the most right wing candidate in history. 2 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Hard to complain even about a "bad" run when it's still showing widespread 8+ inches over Western WA. From dingy gray to being on the edge of the pepto zone… much improved! 5 It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Personally, love this run and it covers PDX to Vancouver. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said: From dingy gray to being on the edge of the pepto zone… much improved! Yes I very much like those colors! 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 10:43 PM Radar Update 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, fubario said: when i run for political office i'm hiring u as my spokesperson. We get 10 inches of snow. How is that not good? The good thing about this run is the offshore block almost holds the PV from breaking out. the next run it might hold it totally. Every run shows Seattle getting lots of snow and cold temps. Works for me. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fubario Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: You'd have to be the most right wing candidate in history. ah ok. never mind lol i'm libertarian 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 One thing to at least consider, looking somewhat back to January 2020, is what was hypothesized as a model tendency to overlook the gradual “shallowing” of these quasi-stationary, intense cold air masses. Has to be an absolute nightmare for them to accurately construct. 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, wxmet said: Personally, love this run and it covers PDX to Vancouver. It blow my mind anyone in Seattle would complain about this. We still need to remember the ECMWF is the only model that biffs the PV and this run almost avoids it. I'm thrilled! 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: It blow my mind anyone in Seattle would complain about this. We still need to remember the ECMWF is the only model that biffs the PV and this run almost avoids it. I'm thrilled! I am really happy with this run....would feel terrible for Portland tho 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 I really think this one is going to work out. That's my call. I just don't buy some of the details on the ECMWF. Even at that it nails us. 2 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 00z WRF sure looks boring. Worst east wind storm in history 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 And... still nothing in the old believable range. 1 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: It blow my mind anyone in Seattle would complain about this. We still need to remember the ECMWF is the only model that biffs the PV and this run almost avoids it. I'm thrilled! And it’s solidly snowy in WA precisely because it’s not so insanely cold. Can’t have it all. 6 1 It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, DJ Droppin said: 00z WRF sure looks boring. Worst east wind storm in history lol not backing down 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Lumpy rain and 35 at the moment. 2 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said: lol not backing down Nope. ....... Waiting for EPS tonight I think it will be a bit colder dumping more arctic air south. Nothing crazy though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: I am really happy with this run....would feel terrible for Portland tho Eugene and Salem are the ones I’d feel terrible for if that verified. 1 1 It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, MossMan said: Lumpy rain and 35 at the moment. Lumpy Rain is a stripper at the club up the street. I literally just made that up right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said: And... still nothing in the old believable range. It gets cold in 2 days. What the hell is the believable range then? Still think highs will be in the 50's this week? As far as snow goes, you know that snow can never be really predicted well within about 48 hours, sometimes even less than that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, DJ Droppin said: Nope. ....... Waiting for EPS tonight I think it will be a bit colder dumping more arctic air south. Nothing crazy though. Me too. Also waiting for the 06z GFS. I don't work tomorrow so i'll be around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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