February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[Perturbed Member]

The first low looks really messy in PDX. Lots of sleet and ice. Right on the boundary.

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

Yeah and by Saturday 10 PM, the highest temps get is 35. Mainly uppers 20s and low 30s. Not as cold, but no surge of warm air. 

This seems more realistic imo. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

I don't even think there was a single GFS ensemble member as warm as the Euro is at day 5.

This is true. EPS will be interesting. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just now, hawkstwelve said:

Technically, BLI to PDX scores next weekend. It's like it heard us talking about it.

@Bryant I take back what I said. Portland to Bellingham score!

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

The Euro went, in a span of 24 hours, from the greatest winter of some of our lifetimes to a total rug pull for anyone south of the Columbia River (with a big arctic rug pull for Washington as well).

Incredible disagreement with its own modeling. 

It's a great run for us if you look at the actual observed weather.  Lots of snow and freezing high temps.  No unfavorable trend.  The offshore block held up better also.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Gotta be some impressive 150 hour snow totals for the puget sound

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

The Euro is the best model...except for this run. It literally completely flipped the pattern from the previous run. Nothing is even close to resembling this output. 

It’s a significant change, but it’s not a complete flip.  It’s a nod to a more prominent Pacific influence, which is always a possibility in these battle ground setups.  

Worth noting that a couple days ago the Euro was looking somewhat like a cold outlier with other models lagging behind...

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Technically, BLI to PDX scores next weekend. It's like it heard us talking about it.

Incredible run for us really.

[Kolk1604]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

This is what I told myself 2 weeks ago, when every GEFS/CMC ensemble member had a blizzard here and the Euro had a flat wave in the Carolinas.

You can probably guess who won that battle.

The GEFS/CMC! I saw South Carolina got snow last night. 

[snow_wizard]

Look at the surface stuff guys!  500mb DOES NOT tell the story here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Good run for W. WA still. Would be a shame if we get hosed for a 3rd straight year, but at least someone would get a winter this year. 

[mtep]

44 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Will it happen again this year?

 

Wtf I should've gone to Padden that winter. I had no idea. Those people have way more trust in that ice than I would though.

[OysterPrintout]

On this run the little spin off ull that leads to the thu/fri snowstorm on the GFS looks like the 18z euro in the sense that it actually ends up WAY north but the euro kind of does its own thing after that with what remains. Just an entirely different setup at hour 72 

[bainbridgekid]

Radar looking very active around Port Townsend and seems to be heading toward Everett. Might get interesting here in an hour or so.

 

[wxmet]

Looking at the ECMWF a bit deeper and comparing it with the 12z run, in the 00z run there is a weaker low over the Pacific with a weaker trough that drops down the B.C. that doesn't dig enough west. In previous ECMWF runs, the trough digging out west created a path for the Pacific low to phase and strength the western extent of the TPV while it dropped south.

[fubario]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It's a great run for us if you look at the actual observed weather.  Lots of snow and freezing high temps.  No unfavorable trend.  The offshore block held up better also.

when i run for political office i'm hiring u as my spokesperson.

[snow_wizard]

I'm happy with this run.  A lot of things changed and I think the 12z will have more changes.

[Bryant]

1 minute ago, mtep said:

Wtf I should've gone to Padden that winter. I had no idea. Those people have way more trust in that ice than I would though.

@Brennan, @bainbridgekid, and I have skated on Lake Whatcom. That was a lot more sketchy than Padden however 

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

On this run the little spin off ull that leads to the thu/fri snowstorm on the GFS looks like the 18z euro in the sense that it actually ends up WAY north but the euro kind of does its own thing after that with what remains. Just an entirely different setup at hour 72 

Yeah, I'm going to throw this out if the EPS doesn't agree.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, fubario said:

when i run for political office i'm hiring u as my spokesperson.

You'd have to be the most right wing candidate in history. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Hard to complain even about a "bad" run when it's still showing widespread 8+ inches over Western WA.

From dingy gray to being on the edge of the pepto zone… much improved!

[wxmet]

Personally, love this run and it covers PDX to Vancouver.

 

[MossMan]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

From dingy gray to being on the edge of the pepto zone… much improved!

Yes I very much like those colors! 

[Gradient Keeper]

10:43 PM Radar Update

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, fubario said:

when i run for political office i'm hiring u as my spokesperson.

We get 10 inches of snow. How is that not good?

The good thing about this run is the offshore block almost holds the PV from breaking out.  the next run it might hold it totally.  Every run shows Seattle getting lots of snow and cold temps.  Works for me.

[fubario]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You'd have to be the most right wing candidate in history. 

ah ok. never mind lol i'm libertarian

[Deweydog]

One thing to at least consider, looking somewhat back to January 2020, is what was hypothesized as a model tendency to overlook the gradual “shallowing” of these quasi-stationary, intense cold air masses.  Has to be an absolute nightmare for them to accurately construct.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, wxmet said:

Personally, love this run and it covers PDX to Vancouver.

 

It blow my mind anyone in Seattle would complain about this.  We still need to remember the ECMWF is the only model that biffs the PV and this run almost avoids it.  I'm thrilled!

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

It blow my mind anyone in Seattle would complain about this.  We still need to remember the ECMWF is the only model that biffs the PV and this run almost avoids it.  I'm thrilled!

I am really happy with this run....would feel terrible for Portland tho

[snow_wizard]

I really think this one is going to work out.  That's my call.  I just don't buy some of the details on the ECMWF.  Even at that it nails us.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z WRF sure looks boring. Worst east wind storm in history

[GHweatherChris]

And... still nothing in the old believable range.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It blow my mind anyone in Seattle would complain about this.  We still need to remember the ECMWF is the only model that biffs the PV and this run almost avoids it.  I'm thrilled!

And it’s solidly snowy in WA precisely because it’s not so insanely cold. Can’t have it all.

[Kolk1604]

Just now, DJ Droppin said:

00z WRF sure looks boring. Worst east wind storm in history

lol not backing down

[MossMan]

Lumpy rain and 35 at the moment. 

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

lol not backing down

Nope. ....... Waiting for EPS tonight I think it will be a bit colder dumping more arctic air south. Nothing crazy though.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I am really happy with this run....would feel terrible for Portland tho

Eugene and Salem are the ones I’d feel terrible for if that verified.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Lumpy rain and 35 at the moment. 

Lumpy Rain is a stripper at the club up the street. I literally just made that up right now.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

And... still nothing in the old believable range.

It gets cold in 2 days.  What the hell is the believable range then?  Still think highs will be in the 50's this week?  As far as snow goes, you know that snow can never be really predicted well within about 48 hours, sometimes even less than that.

[Kolk1604]

Just now, DJ Droppin said:

Nope. ....... Waiting for EPS tonight I think it will be a bit colder dumping more arctic air south. Nothing crazy though.

Me too. Also waiting for the 06z GFS. I don't work tomorrow so i'll be around.