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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


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3 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Honestly I think that most of the apps have been doing okay. Everything I've seen here over the past couple days has suggested cold with a chance of snow at points throughout the week. Probably the best forecast that can be made so far and the closest to reality unless some major snowstorms/rainstorms show up on future runs.

They've done okay, sure, but at one point yesterday I had a snow icon for, like, Tuesday through Saturday. It's not so much that the apps are bad, but rather that people don't know how to interpret them with any nuance. 

So if someone saw that same thing yesterday, they might assume it's gonna be snowing all week long. 

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Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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Lol

58474C75-45B4-4F28-842B-5202B6AF56B3.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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In slightly related news, over the last week 15 people have died in avalanches across the country which is the most in a week since the Stevens Pass avalanche in 1910.

https://unofficialnetworks.com/2021/02/08/most-avalanche-deaths-since-1910/

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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Just now, nwsnow said:

The NAVGEM is a bit south of last nights runs

navgem_mslp_pcpn_nwus_15.png

 

GEM snow totals

gem_asnow_nwus_28.png

I'll take that.

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Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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Some Light snow falling! Probably the only snow I will see this week!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:
12z GEFS Surface temps. Now moving towards the 15th and PDX is still in the ice box
image.png

Operational is a warm outlier. Guess it’s the only one that sends the low that far south, giving PDX little or no snowcover to achieve very cold temps.

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Some Light snow falling! Probably the only snow I will see this week!

I really believe you are going to do very good there. I still think north west Oregon will be the bullseye. I just don't see this happing again here like in 2019. I believe that was a once in 25 year event up my way.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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So my Plow truck is up at my Cabin and need to make a choice soon if i should go bring it home or not. 700 miles round trip so i was waiting till today for a better idea but really I am undecided. If it does snow here more than 3 inches client's will be calling for service.

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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4 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Operational is a warm outlier. Guess it’s the only one that sends the low that far south, giving PDX little or no snowcover to achieve very cold temps.

I think you are giving it more credit to “see” the effects of snowcover than it deserves. It’s just a really cold airmass east of the Cascades and spilling through the Gorge.

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12z GFS is handling the trough coming down the B.C. more similarly to the ECMWF. There are some slight timing issues which result in differences with the Pacific system but the GFS looks like it’s trending towards the ECMWF. 

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11 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

So my Plow truck is up at my Cabin and need to make a choice soon if i should go bring it home or not. 700 miles round trip so i was waiting till today for a better idea but really I am undecided. If it does snow here more than 3 inches client's will be calling for service.

Make the decision based on the 12z EURO! 
Or that UK model! 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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gfs_z500a_namer_55.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

gfs_z500a_namer_55.png

I'm intrigued. 

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Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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Just now, jakerepp said:

I'm intrigued. 

Reflects the latest PNA forecast...Perhaps winter is not finished just yet! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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I woke up hoping the models would be an better agreement... apparently not lol. Still seems like anyone’s game at this point though odds are that it’s gonna be a Portland north event.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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