February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[TacomaWaWx]

Nice that the chill in the air has already arrived...feels like winter is on the way. Should end up our coldest day in about 2 weeks today...with the next couple days getting colder until we enter the freezer thursday. Good stuff is a little less than 3 days out now. Not far off at all it’s coming. 

[Deweydog]

Definitely a delicate balancing act going on with the Euro and a weaker lobe.  Less tendency for it to scoot westward and bomb/induce strong SW’erly flow but then you run the risk of cutting off the low level source with weaker upper level support.  Tough week to be a weenie but WE CAN DO IT!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Given the change on the handling of the PV lobe on this run it wouldn't shock me to see future runs trend colder and more suppressed.  At any rate we're going to get some winter.

Sounds good to me!

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

 

That’s paineful to see.

[mtep]

5 minutes ago, Bryant said:

Lived there for a few years and was impressed with how well that location performed. I'm in north Bellingham now however 

Ohhh gotcha. Yeah let's hope this thing trends north a bit then. I'm kind of by the Lincoln park n ride on the SE side of town. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, Deweydog said:

Definitely a delicate balancing act going on with the Euro and a weaker lobe.  Less tendency for it to scoot westward and bomb/induce strong SW’erly flow but then you run the risk of cutting off the low level source with weaker upper level support.  Tough week to be a weenie but WE CAN DO IT!

Going to be literally threading a needle from kelso to salem. I’d feel better after this morning’s euro but still going to be a close call for you guys. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, Jesse said:

The F*ck Mark Nelsen group? 

Were you a founding member because of the whole warm bias fiasco? 

 

In all seriousness though, some positive trends today. Going to be some big winners in this pattern, and no one here is a loser, except for me, but that happened the day I was born, nothing anyone can do about it, so I will stop putting that burden on you. 

[Deweydog]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Were you a founding member because of the whole warm bias fiasco? 

 

In all seriousness though, some positive trends today. Going to be some big winners in this pattern, and no one here is a loser, except for me, but that happened the day I was born, nothing anyone can do about it, so I will stop putting that burden on you. 

Did you get your second shot yet Andrew?

[MossMan]

11 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I’m sure Rob would welcum me with open arms Andrew. I learned not to mix Facebook friends and weather fiends a looooong time ago though

Shoot...I was just about to friend you on FB!

[Jesse]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Were you a founding member because of the whole warm bias fiasco? 

 

In all seriousness though, some positive trends today. Going to be some big winners in this pattern, and no one here is a loser, except for me, but that happened the day I was born, nothing anyone can do about it, so I will stop putting that burden on you. 

No, but I remember the group being made because a few people got kicked off the Fox 12 blog and went rogue, then Mark finding out about it and getting mad. Still chuckle about that to this day sometimes.

If anyone thinks this place is unreadable and full of drama, they should have seen some of the old facebook weather groups. Insane. Andrew is insane.

[Timmy Supercell]

18 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I have to much respect for Rob. And Jesse is not allowed in his group. 

It's been 8 years since I have legit trolled a single soul and like to keep that trend going. Unfortunately I'm lifelong not allowed on that group. Most of my postings lately have been either stats or cool photography and others would like me.

[snow drift]

7 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Definitely a delicate balancing act going on with the Euro and a weaker lobe.  Less tendency for it to scoot westward and bomb/induce strong SW’erly flow but then you run the risk of cutting off the low level source with weaker upper level support.  Tough week to be a weenie but WE CAN DO IT!

Damned if you do and Damned if you don't

[kokaneekidz]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Evidently your vaunted Euro was not spot on yesterday and the CZ prevailed/

[bainbridgekid]

On the 12z models, it looks like there are still pretty clearly three main camps when it come to Thursday's storm.

NAM, UKMET, ICON, and GEM: Stronger and further North storm with heavy snow PDX to Everett or even Bellingham and minimal snow South of Portland.

EURO: Not quite as far North with heavy snow Salem to Olympia.

GFS: Much weaker storm further South with minimal lowland snow anywhere.

GFS pretty clearly the odd man out right now.

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Go ahead and figure this all out!

[Jesse]

7 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Definitely a delicate balancing act going on with the Euro and a weaker lobe.  Less tendency for it to scoot westward and bomb/induce strong SW’erly flow but then you run the risk of cutting off the low level source with weaker upper level support.  Tough week to be a weenie but WE CAN DO IT!

Threading the needle indeed. I'm glad to be by the Gorge right now, but fully realize a very slight shift could render it moot.

[MossMan]

Just now, bainbridgekid said:

On the 12z models, it looks like there are still pretty clearly three main camps when it come to Thursday's storm.

NAM, UKMET, ICON: Stronger and further North storm with heavy snow PDX to Everett or even Bellingham and minimal snow South of Portland.

EURO: Not quite as far North with heavy snow Salem to Olympia.

GFS: Much weaker storm further South with minimal lowland snow anywhere.

 

GO NAMUKMETICON!!!!!! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

No, but I remember the group being made because a few people got kicked off the Fox 12 blog and went rogue, then Mark finding out about it and getting mad. Still chuckle about that to this day sometimes.

If anyone thinks this place is unreadable and full of drama, they should have seen some of the old facebook weather groups. Insane. Andrew is insane.

lol... Just so people are clear... I had nothing to do with that FB group, and you and I both know who created it, but we all have our moments, and I am sure it was not their proudest moment, so I will not mention their name for public consumption. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Salem to Kelso will be the bullseye.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Salem to Kelso will be the bullseye.

That must be a massive target.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Deweydog said:

That must be a massive target.

Now see if you can hit it with a snowball from 6 feet away. 

[MossMan]

Just now, Deweydog said:

That must be a massive target.

He misspoke...Bullseye will be Everett to 2.4 miles north of the Canadian border. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

4 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

On the 12z models, it looks like there are still pretty clearly three main camps when it come to Thursday's storm.

NAM, UKMET, ICON: Stronger and further North storm with heavy snow PDX to Everett or even Bellingham and minimal snow South of Portland.

EURO: Not quite as far North with heavy snow Salem to Olympia.

GFS: Much weaker storm further South with minimal lowland snow anywhere.

 

UKMET FOR THE WIN!!

[Bryant]

10 minutes ago, mtep said:

Ohhh gotcha. Yeah let's hope this thing trends north a bit then. I'm kind of by the Lincoln park n ride on the SE side of town. 

I like that area over there. I'm by the bakerview Fred's

[Timmy Supercell]

22 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Going to be a lot of free firewood. The EURO gives us more sleet than ZR. ZR is not super common here, but January 2004 closed the South Falls loop below lower South Falls for about a year due to trees across the trail. 

The only two times I've logged freezing rain at my location were 12/24/2017 and one of the times in Feb 2019 I was between snowfalls. Not sure why that date is missing.

It's only a very thin layer of it and the last time I've ever had black ice on roads was in Hillsboro on 11/23/2010.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

That must be a massive target.

Best home defense is a Shotgun!

[Jesse]

EPS will be telling.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Best home defense is a Shotgun!

I rely on the power of prayer. 

[Jesse]

2 minutes ago, Bryant said:

I like that area over there. I'm by the bakerview Fred's

If I look on google maps is there a giant angry emoji marking the location of your home?

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

EPS will be telling.

Sneak peek!!!

it will look like the op.

NOT FOR REBROADCAST

[Bryant]

2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

If I look on google maps is there a giant angry emoji marking the location of your home?

I submitted that request a while back, still waiting

[bainbridgekid]

Euro, UKMET, NAM (through 4pm Thursday with more to come), GFS, and GEM:

[The Blob]

Now the phone says 4in of snow Thursday. So much lower than last night's 9in

[Jesse]

5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Sneak peek!!!

it will look like the op.

NOT FOR REBROADCAST

Notches matter at this stage.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Is there a tool that takes a blend of all the model members for low Placement?

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just now, The Blob said:

Now the phone says 4in of snow Thursday. So much lower than last night's 9in

The national average is only 6 inches

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Nice improvement for EPS snow through Sunday afternoon.

0Z last night:

Todays 12Z

 

[Kolk1604]

Whos got the over!!

[Jesse]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Is there a tool that takes a blend of all the model members for low Placement?

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just now, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Nice improvement for EPS snow through Sunday afternoon.

0Z last night:

Todays 12Z

 

THIS WHAT I LIKE TO SEE. LET'S GO BABY!!!!!!