February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[bainbridgekid]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Is there a tool that takes a blend of all the model members for low Placement?

The National Blend of Models combines a bunch of different models including the Ensembles and weights them based on recent performance. Here is the last 3 runs of it. Comes out every 6 hours.

 

 

[ShawniganLake]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Nice. A couple inches?

[TacomaWaWx]

Glad that if there’s any models that’s the outlier it’s the gfs. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, ShawniganLake said:

Nice. A couple inches?

Yes... about 2.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS looks perfect... just like the operational run.   Still can't connect with my computer... but it more suppressed than 00Z run.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

2 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

The National Blend of Models combines a bunch of different models including the Ensembles and weights them based on recent performance. Here is the last 3 runs of it. Comes out every 6 hours.

 

 

I often read the NWS mention the NBM in their AFD's.

[wxmet]

EPS looks great! Overall some solid runs today except for the GFS.

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS looks perfect... just like the operational run.   Still can't connect with my computer... but it more suppressed than 00Z run.

Nice, lots of good news this morning on the models. We’re definitely getting into the believable range now...cold air is supposed to really start trickling in like 60 hours from now. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice update from the Portland NWS this morning. 

 A majority of the EC ensemble members do
not show low elevation snow. In this scenario the Cascades, Gorge
and Hood River still stand to see significant snow, and at some
point freezing rain. However the 00Z & 06Z GFS has not changed that
much, sticking to the possibility of low elevation snow. Even
portions of the coast may see snow if the current GFS solution comes
to fruition.  For now will trend to the warmer ECMWF solution for
Thu & Fri with rain for most of the low lands, with a chance of snow
or snow/rain mix in the north Willamette valley into southwest WA.
Over the weekend ECMWF continues with the warmer solution, and more
GFS ensemble members are following that trend. But with that said
snow levels will be still relatively low and subtle changes in
temperature and moisture can still lower snow levels. /mh

[bainbridgekid]

Here are the last 8 runs of the National Blend of Models through the weekend. The 12z today really cut back totals so must be weighing the GFS fairly heavily. Solid totals most areas though.

 

[Deweydog]

5 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Glad that if there’s any models that’s the outlier it’s the gfs. 

Poor GFS has got to be a hot mess right now mentally. 18 hours ago we were lifting it up as a Euro-trumping icon of five day accuracy.  Now it’s been relegated to the MRF and AVN clearance bin.  

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, Deweydog said:

Poor GFS has got to be a hot mess right now mentally.  18 hours ago we were lifting it up as a Euro-trumping icon of five day accuracy.  Now it’s been relegated to the MRF and AVN clearance bin.  

Maybe joe Biden will give it an upgrade! 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The 12z JMA at days 4 and 5.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

Here are the last 8 runs of the National Blend of Models through the weekend. The 12z today really cut back totals so must be weighing the GFS fairly heavily. Solid totals most areas though.

 

Did it take into account todays 12Z ECMWF?

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

More good news from the EPS, last nights vs todays

Todays:

[Kolk1604]

[Jesse]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Nice update from the Portland NWS this morning. 

 A majority of the EC ensemble members do
not show low elevation snow. In this scenario the Cascades, Gorge
and Hood River still stand to see significant snow, and at some
point freezing rain. However the 00Z & 06Z GFS has not changed that
much, sticking to the possibility of low elevation snow. Even
portions of the coast may see snow if the current GFS solution comes
to fruition.  For now will trend to the warmer ECMWF solution for
Thu & Fri with rain for most of the low lands, with a chance of snow
or snow/rain mix in the north Willamette valley into southwest WA.
Over the weekend ECMWF continues with the warmer solution, and more
GFS ensemble members are following that trend. But with that said
snow levels will be still relatively low and subtle changes in
temperature and moisture can still lower snow levels. /mh

Written up before the 12Z Euro moved toward the GFS for those following along at home and not looking to be purposefully misinformed.

[Kolk1604]

Just now, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

More good news from the EPS, last nights vs todays

Todays:

I wonder how surface temps looks. Cold air lingers to at least Wednesday?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

12z JMA accumulated precipitation through Sunday morning with some cold air still in place.

 

[Jesse]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Poor GFS has got to be a hot mess right now mentally. 18 hours ago we were lifting it up as a Euro-trumping icon of five day accuracy.  Now it’s been relegated to the MRF and AVN clearance bin.  

I still love it cuz it's colder. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Odds are going up! 

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Those are funny.  I like how PDX will drop from 38 degrees at 11:59:59 pm on Thursday down to 26 degrees at 12:00:00 am on Friday morning.

[Kayla]

Arctic snow machine still ongoing here. I've picked up 30" of snow since Wednesday and it's still snowing. 

Once that Arctic air arrives it sure does an amazing job of squeezing out every drop of moisture. Currently 6 degrees.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Kayla said:

Arctic snow machine still ongoing here. I've picked up 30" of snow since Wednesday and it's still snowing. 

Once that Arctic air arrives it sure does an amazing job of squeezing out every drop of moisture. Currently 6 degrees.

 

That is pretty legit. Bet the mountains will look amazing once the skies clear. 

[ShawniganLake]

24 in Hope with a dew point of 16 and an east wind. It’s trickling westward. 

[snow_wizard]

The EPS has a nice follow up cold shot at day 6  that isn't emphasized as much on the operational.  Could give us an extension on the cold!

As it is the operational gave SEA four consecutive highs of 34 or below.  Nice.

[Skagit Weather]

Light graupel shower just moved through. Lasted about 3 minutes and melted on contact. 40F.

[MWG]

8 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Can you post for Medford? Thank you! 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

24 in Hope with a dew point of 16 and an east wind. It’s trickling westward. 

I think Bellingham could get a lot colder than people expect with this.

[Kayla]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That is pretty legit. Bet the mountains will look amazing once the skies clear. 

Yeah I'm looking forward to it. Could be a while though as Arctic air always wants to hang onto some sort of stratus layer.

It's looked like this for 3 days straight now. There are 10,000ft mountains right there in the background but you wouldn't know it!

 https://nbcmontana.com/weather/cameras

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, MWG said:

Can you post for Medford? Thank you! 

I'm Sorry  

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

10 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

I wonder how surface temps looks. Cold air lingers to at least Wednesday?

Through Sunday looks a bit cooler than the 0Z.  My map only shows anomalies, and shows the whole U.S., and not just the PNW, so a bit harder to tell.  Beyond that it looks similar to 0Z

[MWG]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

I'm Sorry  

Lol it's ok! I wasn't expecting anything different! Thank you for posting though! 

[Perturbed Member]

37 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

On the 12z models, it looks like there are still pretty clearly three main camps when it come to Thursday's storm.

NAM, UKMET, ICON, and GEM: Stronger and further North storm with heavy snow PDX to Everett or even Bellingham and minimal snow South of Portland.

EURO: Not quite as far North with heavy snow Salem to Olympia.

GFS: Much weaker storm further South with minimal lowland snow anywhere.

GFS pretty clearly the odd man out right now.

 

GFS shows a pretty aggressive progression of the trough out of the NE. Pretty suppressed look. Doesn't look too realistic to have all that cold air flood in that fast. Most models have abandoned that idea and I think the GFS will eventually flip back too.

[snow_wizard]

Holy moly!  The EPS is really good!  Snowier and colder than the operational on the mean.  Slower warm up too.

[ShawniganLake]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think Bellingham could get a lot colder than people expect with this.

Models have pulled back quite a bit on the upper level stuff but there could definitely be a nice low level cold outflow. Some snow cover in the Fraser valley would help.  There is deep snow cover in Hope and just to the west after yesterday’s storm. 

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Yeah I'm looking forward to it. Could be a while though as Arctic air always wants to hang onto some sort of stratus layer.

It's looked like this for 3 days straight now. There are 10,000ft mountains right there in the background but you wouldn't know it!

 https://nbcmontana.com/weather/cameras

My wife and I have a friend who is probably going to move there.  He can't stand the liberalism that has set in here.  Gorgeous!

[Kolk1604]

5 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Through Sunday looks a bit cooler than the 0Z.  My map only shows anomalies, and shows the whole U.S., and not just the PNW, so a bit harder to tell.  Beyond that it looks similar to 0Z

Yeah same. I saw that temps remain below normal which is good. 

[awright-31]

I’ll start by admitting I only pay attention to this forum during the lead up to major snow events. I was here during February 2019, but made a new account...

thank you all for reminding me what an emotional roller coaster model watching can be!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

My wife and I have a friend who is probably going to move there.  He can't stand the liberalism that has set in here.  Gorgeous!

Bozeman is pretty left-leaning. lol

Biden won Gallatin County by 8%.