bainbridgekid Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said: Is there a tool that takes a blend of all the model members for low Placement? The National Blend of Models combines a bunch of different models including the Ensembles and weights them based on recent performance. Here is the last 3 runs of it. Comes out every 6 hours. 4 Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 hours ago, TT-SEA said: Nice. A couple inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Glad that if there’s any models that’s the outlier it’s the gfs. Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, ShawniganLake said: Nice. A couple inches? Yes... about 2. 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 12Z EPS looks perfect... just like the operational run. Still can't connect with my computer... but it more suppressed than 00Z run. 7 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: The National Blend of Models combines a bunch of different models including the Ensembles and weights them based on recent performance. Here is the last 3 runs of it. Comes out every 6 hours. I often read the NWS mention the NBM in their AFD's. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 EPS looks great! Overall some solid runs today except for the GFS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, TT-SEA said: 12Z EPS looks perfect... just like the operational run. Still can't connect with my computer... but it more suppressed than 00Z run. Nice, lots of good news this morning on the models. We’re definitely getting into the believable range now...cold air is supposed to really start trickling in like 60 hours from now. 1 Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Nice update from the Portland NWS this morning. A majority of the EC ensemble members do not show low elevation snow. In this scenario the Cascades, Gorge and Hood River still stand to see significant snow, and at some point freezing rain. However the 00Z & 06Z GFS has not changed that much, sticking to the possibility of low elevation snow. Even portions of the coast may see snow if the current GFS solution comes to fruition. For now will trend to the warmer ECMWF solution for Thu & Fri with rain for most of the low lands, with a chance of snow or snow/rain mix in the north Willamette valley into southwest WA. Over the weekend ECMWF continues with the warmer solution, and more GFS ensemble members are following that trend. But with that said snow levels will be still relatively low and subtle changes in temperature and moisture can still lower snow levels. /mh 1 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Here are the last 8 runs of the National Blend of Models through the weekend. The 12z today really cut back totals so must be weighing the GFS fairly heavily. Solid totals most areas though. 1 Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 5 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: Glad that if there’s any models that’s the outlier it’s the gfs. Poor GFS has got to be a hot mess right now mentally. 18 hours ago we were lifting it up as a Euro-trumping icon of five day accuracy. Now it’s been relegated to the MRF and AVN clearance bin. 3 4 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, Deweydog said: Poor GFS has got to be a hot mess right now mentally. 18 hours ago we were lifting it up as a Euro-trumping icon of five day accuracy. Now it’s been relegated to the MRF and AVN clearance bin. Maybe joe Biden will give it an upgrade! Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 The 12z JMA at days 4 and 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said: Here are the last 8 runs of the National Blend of Models through the weekend. The 12z today really cut back totals so must be weighing the GFS fairly heavily. Solid totals most areas though. Did it take into account todays 12Z ECMWF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 More good news from the EPS, last nights vs todays Todays: 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Nice update from the Portland NWS this morning. A majority of the EC ensemble members do not show low elevation snow. In this scenario the Cascades, Gorge and Hood River still stand to see significant snow, and at some point freezing rain. However the 00Z & 06Z GFS has not changed that much, sticking to the possibility of low elevation snow. Even portions of the coast may see snow if the current GFS solution comes to fruition. For now will trend to the warmer ECMWF solution for Thu & Fri with rain for most of the low lands, with a chance of snow or snow/rain mix in the north Willamette valley into southwest WA. Over the weekend ECMWF continues with the warmer solution, and more GFS ensemble members are following that trend. But with that said snow levels will be still relatively low and subtle changes in temperature and moisture can still lower snow levels. /mh Written up before the 12Z Euro moved toward the GFS for those following along at home and not looking to be purposefully misinformed. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: More good news from the EPS, last nights vs todays Todays: I wonder how surface temps looks. Cold air lingers to at least Wednesday? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 12z JMA accumulated precipitation through Sunday morning with some cold air still in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 4 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Poor GFS has got to be a hot mess right now mentally. 18 hours ago we were lifting it up as a Euro-trumping icon of five day accuracy. Now it’s been relegated to the MRF and AVN clearance bin. I still love it cuz it's colder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Odds are going up! 2 1 4 1 Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 4 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: Those are funny. I like how PDX will drop from 38 degrees at 11:59:59 pm on Thursday down to 26 degrees at 12:00:00 am on Friday morning. 2 1 2 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Kayla Posted February 8, 2021 Popular Post Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Arctic snow machine still ongoing here. I've picked up 30" of snow since Wednesday and it's still snowing. Once that Arctic air arrives it sure does an amazing job of squeezing out every drop of moisture. Currently 6 degrees. 8 1 2 Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, Kayla said: Arctic snow machine still ongoing here. I've picked up 30" of snow since Wednesday and it's still snowing. Once that Arctic air arrives it sure does an amazing job of squeezing out every drop of moisture. Currently 6 degrees. That is pretty legit. Bet the mountains will look amazing once the skies clear. 1 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 24 in Hope with a dew point of 16 and an east wind. It’s trickling westward. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 The EPS has a nice follow up cold shot at day 6 that isn't emphasized as much on the operational. Could give us an extension on the cold! As it is the operational gave SEA four consecutive highs of 34 or below. Nice. 4 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Light graupel shower just moved through. Lasted about 3 minutes and melted on contact. 40F. 2 1 Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWG Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 8 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: Can you post for Medford? Thank you! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said: 24 in Hope with a dew point of 16 and an east wind. It’s trickling westward. I think Bellingham could get a lot colder than people expect with this. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: That is pretty legit. Bet the mountains will look amazing once the skies clear. Yeah I'm looking forward to it. Could be a while though as Arctic air always wants to hang onto some sort of stratus layer. It's looked like this for 3 days straight now. There are 10,000ft mountains right there in the background but you wouldn't know it! https://nbcmontana.com/weather/cameras 3 1 Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, MWG said: Can you post for Medford? Thank you! I'm Sorry 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 10 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: I wonder how surface temps looks. Cold air lingers to at least Wednesday? Through Sunday looks a bit cooler than the 0Z. My map only shows anomalies, and shows the whole U.S., and not just the PNW, so a bit harder to tell. Beyond that it looks similar to 0Z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWG Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said: I'm Sorry Lol it's ok! I wasn't expecting anything different! Thank you for posting though! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 37 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: On the 12z models, it looks like there are still pretty clearly three main camps when it come to Thursday's storm. NAM, UKMET, ICON, and GEM: Stronger and further North storm with heavy snow PDX to Everett or even Bellingham and minimal snow South of Portland. EURO: Not quite as far North with heavy snow Salem to Olympia. GFS: Much weaker storm further South with minimal lowland snow anywhere. GFS pretty clearly the odd man out right now. GFS shows a pretty aggressive progression of the trough out of the NE. Pretty suppressed look. Doesn't look too realistic to have all that cold air flood in that fast. Most models have abandoned that idea and I think the GFS will eventually flip back too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Holy moly! The EPS is really good! Snowier and colder than the operational on the mean. Slower warm up too. 5 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: I think Bellingham could get a lot colder than people expect with this. Models have pulled back quite a bit on the upper level stuff but there could definitely be a nice low level cold outflow. Some snow cover in the Fraser valley would help. There is deep snow cover in Hope and just to the west after yesterday’s storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 7 minutes ago, Kayla said: Yeah I'm looking forward to it. Could be a while though as Arctic air always wants to hang onto some sort of stratus layer. It's looked like this for 3 days straight now. There are 10,000ft mountains right there in the background but you wouldn't know it! https://nbcmontana.com/weather/cameras My wife and I have a friend who is probably going to move there. He can't stand the liberalism that has set in here. Gorgeous! 3 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 5 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Through Sunday looks a bit cooler than the 0Z. My map only shows anomalies, and shows the whole U.S., and not just the PNW, so a bit harder to tell. Beyond that it looks similar to 0Z Yeah same. I saw that temps remain below normal which is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
awright-31 Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 I’ll start by admitting I only pay attention to this forum during the lead up to major snow events. I was here during February 2019, but made a new account... thank you all for reminding me what an emotional roller coaster model watching can be! 6 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: My wife and I have a friend who is probably going to move there. He can't stand the liberalism that has set in here. Gorgeous! Bozeman is pretty left-leaning. lol Biden won Gallatin County by 8%. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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