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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


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4 minutes ago, MWG said:

Lol it's ok! I wasn't expecting anything different! Thank you for posting though! 

Wanted to add that it's always a surprise in this valley with it's own microclimate though so anything can happen. aka January 2017 :) 

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1 minute ago, Austin Wright said:

I’ll start by admitting I only pay attention to this forum during the lead up to major snow events. I was here during February 2019, but made a new account...

thank you all for reminding me what an emotional roller coaster model watching can be!

you and me both brotha... made an account this time 2 years ago leading up to the epic feb 2019 snowstorm 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

My wife and I have a friend who is probably going to move there.  He can't stand the liberalism that has set in here.  Gorgeous!

I heard Alabama is nice if you are basing a state off politics. Everything else about Alabama isn't tho

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1 minute ago, runninthruda206 said:

you and me both brotha... made an account this time 2 years ago leading up to the epic feb 2019 snowstorm 

I made my account a year and 4 days ago. I was following along for at least a month or two before joining. Took about 6 months for anyone to discover me.

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Moving because of politics is pretty dumb unless you own a business or are a multi-millionaire. Then I can see legitimate tax/regulatory reasons to do so. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Pretty insane to see the EPS showing widespread pepto for snow totals!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I heard Alabama is nice if you are basing a state off politics. Everything else about Alabama isn't tho

There’s a pretty big difference between the libertarian, get-the-gov’t-off-my-back conservatism in the rural West and the religious conservatism in the South. But we should probably move this discussion to the politics thread and get back on track.

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Just now, Kolk1604 said:

End of the 00z EPS. Taking bets now lol 

download (33).png

I still feel like I'd have to bet against this, because it just looks too perfect. 

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Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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35 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Glad that if there’s any models that’s the outlier it’s the gfs. 

Why is that?  The 12Z GFS was way colder than the Euro early in the run.  As you can see 850's were -14 at Seattle where I don't think they got below -9 on the Euro. The Euro does show a bit more snow down there but I'd rather have the cold early and worry about the snow later.

850th.us_nw.png

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Just now, Acer said:

Why is that?  The 12Z GFS was way colder than the Euro early in the run.  As you can see 850's were -14 at Seattle where I don't think they got below -9.  The Euro does show a bit more snow down there but I'd rather have the cold early and worry about the snow later.

850th.us_nw.png

Wow we agree!

There seems to be a persistent mythology here that getting an extremely cold airmass is a dime a dozen and moisture for snow is the hard part. In this region getting cold is the wide majority of the battle. Sneaking last minute moisture in is pretty common and how many of our best snowstorms have popped up just a few days in advance.

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4 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

There’s a pretty big difference between the libertarian, get-the-gov’t-off-my-back conservatism in the rural West and the religious conservatism in the South. But we should probably move this discussion to the politics thread and get back on track.

No doubt. I lived in Oklahoma for 4 years. Talk about idiot central. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, Jesse said:

Wow we agree!

There seems to be a persistent mythology here that getting an extremely cold airmass is a dime a dozen and moisture for snow is the hard part. In this region getting cold is the wide majority of the battle. Sneaking last minute moisture in is pretty common and how many of our best snowstorms have popped up just a few days in advance.

Well said young man.

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4 minutes ago, Kayla said:

No one asked for a photo but I'm out here snow blowing for the umpteenth time over the last few days so why not! It's quite gorgeous out.

898404561_ScreenShot2021-02-08at8_46_27PM.png.4a61f34f647201205b9887762661d33a.png

No, we want MORE photos!

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Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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1 minute ago, Jesse said:

Wow we agree!

There seems to be a persistent mythology here that getting an extremely cold airmass is a dime a dozen and moisture for snow is the hard part. In this region getting cold is the wide majority of the battle. Sneaking last minute moisture in is pretty common and how many of our best snowstorms have popped up just a few days in advance.

Congrats Jesse. Post of the day material right here. 

 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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5 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Nothing is better than an PNW summer except for when the smoke moves in. After allergy season, June and July are pure bliss

If not for the Labor Day windstorm last summer was for the most part smokeless. Also a good severe t'storm on August 5th but unfortunately was extremely hard to get a good video of it. My camera would have been soaked had I stepped out with it. 3/4"-1" hail falling for 15 minutes straight. Someone near OIT in north K-Falls recorded 1.5" rainfall in the short duration that storm happened.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Back to just a plain rain shower here with the February sun also shining through.

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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6 minutes ago, Kayla said:

No one asked for a photo but I'm out here snow blowing for the umpteenth time over the last few days so why not! It's quite gorgeous out.

898404561_ScreenShot2021-02-08at8_46_27PM.png.4a61f34f647201205b9887762661d33a.png

No doubt you got way more on the ground than I've seen at once! 

2 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

No, we want MORE photos!

Yes we do! 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Moving because of politics is pretty dumb unless you own a business or are a multi-millionaire. Then I can see legitimate tax/regulatory reasons to do so. 

 

It can get to where it effects your personal freedom.  I get it.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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image.thumb.jpeg.f87b58e3f3bd4cae00d5357b8af40eea.jpeg
unfortunately this looks to be a repeat of December 2016 if not worse.  That ice storm was probably the worst since ? 1979 in Eugene if not longer.  
there is still PLENTY of time for model forecast to change.  I would add that just because models fall into consensus does not mean the forecast is certain.  If I recall correctly the models did fall into consensus for the late February 2019 snowstorm a few days prior, shifting north before trending south.

 

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9 minutes ago, Acer said:

Why is that?  The 12Z GFS was way colder than the Euro early in the run.  As you can see 850's were -14 at Seattle where I don't think they got below -9 on the Euro. The Euro does show a bit more snow down there but I'd rather have the cold early and worry about the snow later.

850th.us_nw.png

The good thing about our current situation is every scenario being put forth are good ones. IMO the euro looked better...but I’d gladly take the gfs too. Mainly my preferences speaking. This situation is a balance between being too suppressed or too far north...most of the models at this point have a good balance for there to be a decent amount of cold and snow PDX northwards...with the euro leading the way...which is the scenario I’d prefer. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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6 minutes ago, fubario said:

with the N vs S tug-o-war happening w/ the models..i'm thinking oly may be in a good spot, no?

I'd bet yes on that. 

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Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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11 minutes ago, Kayla said:

No one asked for a photo but I'm out here snow blowing for the umpteenth time over the last few days so why not! It's quite gorgeous out.

898404561_ScreenShot2021-02-08at8_46_27PM.png.4a61f34f647201205b9887762661d33a.png

Its nice to have a lot of snow, but even better in a gorgeous environment like yours.  The house looks amazing too, the kind of house a person would love to sit in and watch it snow outside.  Be careful with these pics, or Hallmark will knock on your door asking to film a movie there!

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2 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said:

image.thumb.jpeg.f87b58e3f3bd4cae00d5357b8af40eea.jpeg
unfortunately this looks to be a repeat of December 2016 if not worse.  That ice storm was probably the worst since ? 1979 in Eugene if not longer.  
there is still PLENTY of time for model forecast to change.  I would add that just because models fall into consensus does not mean the forecast is certain.  If I recall correctly the models did fall into consensus for the late February 2019 snowstorm a few days prior, shifting north before trending south.

 

I got a lot of free wood out of that 2016 event. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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