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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


BLI snowman

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9 minutes ago, fubario said:

with the N vs S tug-o-war happening w/ the models..i'm thinking oly may be in a good spot, no?

Probably one of the better bets.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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15 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Wow we agree!

There seems to be a persistent mythology here that getting an extremely cold airmass is a dime a dozen and moisture for snow is the hard part. In this region getting cold is the wide majority of the battle. Sneaking last minute moisture in is pretty common and how many of our best snowstorms have popped up just a few days in advance.

The Pepto Peeps aren’t going to like this.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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4 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said:

image.thumb.jpeg.f87b58e3f3bd4cae00d5357b8af40eea.jpeg
unfortunately this looks to be a repeat of December 2016 if not worse.  That ice storm was probably the worst since ? 1979 in Eugene if not longer.  
there is still PLENTY of time for model forecast to change.  I would add that just because models fall into consensus does not mean the forecast is certain.  If I recall correctly the models did fall into consensus for the late February 2019 snowstorm a few days prior, shifting north before trending south.

 

Did you lose power in 2016? By some miracle, I didn't despite having overhead powerlines and plenty of downed trees in the neighborhood. We had about an inch of ice. I know that plenty of folks within the city limit were out of power for over a week. I really can't stand ZR at all. I also don't see a scenario that Eugene gets snow out of this unless things trend differently. I'm sure TWL doesn't either and that's why has hasn't been posting much lately. 

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3 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Its nice to have a lot of snow, but even better in a gorgeous environment like yours.  The house looks amazing too, the kind of house a person would love to sit in and watch it snow outside.  Be careful with these pics, or Hallmark will knock on your door asking to film a movie there!

Haha thank you I appreciate that. We played the market well in Portland, saved and were extremely fortunate to build our dream home on a bit of land before the market went crazy out here. It truly is a great home to cozy up in and watch the snowfall all day!

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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16 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Wow we agree!

There seems to be a persistent mythology here that getting an extremely cold airmass is a dime a dozen and moisture for snow is the hard part. In this region getting cold is the wide majority of the battle. Sneaking last minute moisture in is pretty common and how many of our best snowstorms have popped up just a few days in advance.

Getting cold is a blindfolded handstand on a tight rope at 100 feet without a net.

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Mark's ECMWF text output. Quite a lot of precip. Looks like we go through a near half inch of rain before the cavalry arrives via the gorge. Euro and really most models insist that the surface temps in PDX will be plenty cold and that is still the case with the 12z but those 850s are pretty much what makes this so marginal for us. Right around 0c.

image.thumb.png.d05e7f0282a12d6d29792d17013f8f6f.png

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2 minutes ago, nwsnow said:

Mark's ECMWF text output. Quite a lot of precip. Looks like we go through a near half inch of rain before the cavalry arrives via the gorge. Euro and really most models insist that the surface temps in PDX will be plenty cold and that is still the case with the 12z but those 850s are pretty much what makes this so marginal for us. Right around 0c.

image.thumb.png.d05e7f0282a12d6d29792d17013f8f6f.png

The current phase of this lead up has a very January 1998 look to it.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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2 minutes ago, iFred said:

One East Coast thing I miss was freezing rain after snow. Pretty D**n magical with a moonlit sky and snow glazed over everything.

I've always thought it was pretty but it's definitely hell to get around in. 

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5 minutes ago, nwsnow said:

Mark's ECMWF text output. Quite a lot of precip. Looks like we go through a near half inch of rain before the cavalry arrives via the gorge. Euro and really most models insist that the surface temps in PDX will be plenty cold and that is still the case with the 12z but those 850s are pretty much what makes this so marginal for us. Right around 0c.

image.thumb.png.d05e7f0282a12d6d29792d17013f8f6f.png

Looks like the hills around town could be getting hammered for a couple hours as the cold slowly works its way down.

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We get freezing rain once or twice per year.  If it is right after a snow, and there is still snow on the roads and walkways, it is not a problem to drive around in or walk on.  But if it is on bare pavement, then you might as well not try.  Especially if it is more than .1" or so.  Less than that doesn't do anything.

One year we had about an inch of freezing rain that took down trees and power lines.  Pretty messy.

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3 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

We get freezing rain once or twice per year.  If it is right after a snow, and there is still snow on the roads and walkways, it is not a problem to drive around in or walk on.  But if it is on bare pavement, then you might as well not try.  Especially if it is more than .1" or so.  Less than that doesn't do anything.

One year we had about an inch of freezing rain that took down trees and power lines.  Pretty messy.

A week before I moved out of Hillsboro when the snow/ice happened Nov 2010. Snow melted off the roads and ice replaced it. I was walking and slipping on those roads. Yeah, that day there weren't many folks driving around.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

Not really sure what changed between the 00z EPS and 12z EPS but whatever it was I like it!

12z...

ecmwf-ensemble-KSEA-indiv_snow-2785600.thumb.png.28a3dc148767e99e393b24ba1305faf3.png

00z...

ecmwf-ensemble-KSEA-indiv_snow-2742400.thumb.png.ee0765544ee14394403919aefdd90a91.png

Hmmm. An average of over 10 with the control at 15. Looks like every member has something serious. 

I'm thinking we don't warm up like with previous runs. 

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195572.png?1673757432

 

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11 minutes ago, nwsnow said:

What was the setup for that and how did it progress? 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1998/us0111.php#picture
 

Little closer encounter with the PV lobe but warm advection was also a little stronger, at least compared to what most models are advertising at the moment.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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