snow_wizard Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 9 minutes ago, fubario said: with the N vs S tug-o-war happening w/ the models..i'm thinking oly may be in a good spot, no? Probably one of the better bets. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 06z GEFS. Waiting for the EPS charts to come out. 3 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 15 minutes ago, Jesse said: Wow we agree! There seems to be a persistent mythology here that getting an extremely cold airmass is a dime a dozen and moisture for snow is the hard part. In this region getting cold is the wide majority of the battle. Sneaking last minute moisture in is pretty common and how many of our best snowstorms have popped up just a few days in advance. The Pepto Peeps aren’t going to like this. 1 1 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 4 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said: unfortunately this looks to be a repeat of December 2016 if not worse. That ice storm was probably the worst since ? 1979 in Eugene if not longer. there is still PLENTY of time for model forecast to change. I would add that just because models fall into consensus does not mean the forecast is certain. If I recall correctly the models did fall into consensus for the late February 2019 snowstorm a few days prior, shifting north before trending south. Did you lose power in 2016? By some miracle, I didn't despite having overhead powerlines and plenty of downed trees in the neighborhood. We had about an inch of ice. I know that plenty of folks within the city limit were out of power for over a week. I really can't stand ZR at all. I also don't see a scenario that Eugene gets snow out of this unless things trend differently. I'm sure TWL doesn't either and that's why has hasn't been posting much lately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Blob Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: 06z GEFS. Waiting for the EPS charts to come out. I'll take those two 32in models 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulb/eugene Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I got a lot of free wood out of that 2016 event. so did i Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I got a lot of free wood out of that 2016 event. Do you have Madrone down there? I make sure to always have some of that fire wood. Stuff burns Hot!! We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Its nice to have a lot of snow, but even better in a gorgeous environment like yours. The house looks amazing too, the kind of house a person would love to sit in and watch it snow outside. Be careful with these pics, or Hallmark will knock on your door asking to film a movie there! Haha thank you I appreciate that. We played the market well in Portland, saved and were extremely fortunate to build our dream home on a bit of land before the market went crazy out here. It truly is a great home to cozy up in and watch the snowfall all day! 6 Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulb/eugene Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Twice the ice is eight times the weight. Ice storms suck 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 16 minutes ago, Jesse said: Wow we agree! There seems to be a persistent mythology here that getting an extremely cold airmass is a dime a dozen and moisture for snow is the hard part. In this region getting cold is the wide majority of the battle. Sneaking last minute moisture in is pretty common and how many of our best snowstorms have popped up just a few days in advance. Getting cold is a blindfolded handstand on a tight rope at 100 feet without a net. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 I don’t think Paul wants an ice storm. 1 1 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Mark's ECMWF text output. Quite a lot of precip. Looks like we go through a near half inch of rain before the cavalry arrives via the gorge. Euro and really most models insist that the surface temps in PDX will be plenty cold and that is still the case with the 12z but those 850s are pretty much what makes this so marginal for us. Right around 0c. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poulsbo Snowman Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, Deweydog said: The Pepto Peeps aren’t going to like this. I like Amoxicillin pink. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 13 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: 18z NAM is running Have you decided where you are packing up your bunk bed and legos and moving to yet? 2 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, nwsnow said: Mark's ECMWF text output. Quite a lot of precip. Looks like we go through a near half inch of rain before the cavalry arrives via the gorge. Euro and really most models insist that the surface temps in PDX will be plenty cold and that is still the case with the 12z but those 850s are pretty much what makes this so marginal for us. Right around 0c. The current phase of this lead up has a very January 1998 look to it. 2 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, iFred said: One East Coast thing I miss was freezing rain after snow. Pretty D**n magical with a moonlit sky and snow glazed over everything. I've always thought it was pretty but it's definitely hell to get around in. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew M Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 5 minutes ago, nwsnow said: Mark's ECMWF text output. Quite a lot of precip. Looks like we go through a near half inch of rain before the cavalry arrives via the gorge. Euro and really most models insist that the surface temps in PDX will be plenty cold and that is still the case with the 12z but those 850s are pretty much what makes this so marginal for us. Right around 0c. Looks like the hills around town could be getting hammered for a couple hours as the cold slowly works its way down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, iFred said: One East Coast thing I miss was freezing rain after snow. Pretty D**n magical with a moonlit sky and snow glazed over everything. That stuff is the worst. Different strokes for different folks, I suppose. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 We get freezing rain once or twice per year. If it is right after a snow, and there is still snow on the roads and walkways, it is not a problem to drive around in or walk on. But if it is on bare pavement, then you might as well not try. Especially if it is more than .1" or so. Less than that doesn't do anything. One year we had about an inch of freezing rain that took down trees and power lines. Pretty messy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 7 minutes ago, Deweydog said: The current phase of this lead up has a very January 1998 look to it. What was the setup for that and how did it progress? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: We get freezing rain once or twice per year. If it is right after a snow, and there is still snow on the roads and walkways, it is not a problem to drive around in or walk on. But if it is on bare pavement, then you might as well not try. Especially if it is more than .1" or so. Less than that doesn't do anything. One year we had about an inch of freezing rain that took down trees and power lines. Pretty messy. A week before I moved out of Hillsboro when the snow/ice happened Nov 2010. Snow melted off the roads and ice replaced it. I was walking and slipping on those roads. Yeah, that day there weren't many folks driving around. Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 12 minutes ago, Jesse said: Have you decided where you are packing up your bunk bed and legos and moving to yet? Yuma. Best summers in the US. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 It looks like a snowstorm is a lock at this point. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, Omegaraptor said: Yuma. Best summers in the US. I heard Farmboy is renting out half a tent down there on AirBnB . Saving up money for an eventual move to Dallol, Ethiopia. 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 18z NAM weaker and further south with the low by a good margin. Playing catch up with the other models. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said: Not really sure what changed between the 00z EPS and 12z EPS but whatever it was I like it! 12z... 00z... Can you post KPLU pls? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtep Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Had a wave of very light frozen precipitation come through so naturally I went out for a drive. There were actual flakes near the base of Galbraith but very light. Then I got my first speeding ticket. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said: Not really sure what changed between the 00z EPS and 12z EPS but whatever it was I like it! 12z... 00z... Hmmm. An average of over 10 with the control at 15. Looks like every member has something serious. I'm thinking we don't warm up like with previous runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 11 minutes ago, nwsnow said: What was the setup for that and how did it progress? http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1998/us0111.php#picture Little closer encounter with the PV lobe but warm advection was also a little stronger, at least compared to what most models are advertising at the moment. 2 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Can you post KPLU pls? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joelgombiner Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Tiny bit of graupel in Seattle. Useful weather links Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, Kolk1604 said: That is about right...... DONUT HOLES FOR DAYS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 8 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: Yuma. Best summers in the US. Nick Papagiorgio is from Yuma!! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 18z NAM is much colder. 4 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: That is about right...... DONUT HOLES FOR DAYS lol yep. Maybe @hawkstwelvecan post it. It's not up on weathermodels yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: That's what always comes up when I google search "Snowstorms that Tiger woods remembers" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Speaking of the 18z NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Silly NAM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 THE NAM HAS CAVED Either a really good or really terrible sign. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: 18z NAM is much colder. The trend is our friend right now! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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