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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


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12 minutes ago, mtep said:

Had a wave of very light frozen precipitation come through so naturally I went out for a drive. There were actual flakes near the base of Galbraith but very light. Then I got my first speeding ticket. 

On Samish Way? If so, I hate the speed limits on that road. I always forget where it transitions from 35 to 50 and back again and have had some close calls.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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Seattle may end up waiting for the second low to get snow.  The NAM is way more suppressed.  That's good for delivering much colder air though.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Can you Imagine trying to forecast this pattern in 1990? 

Nobody could forecast the day everyone had to abandon their vehicles on I-5 and walk home...

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Can you Imagine trying to forecast this pattern in 1990? 

Would have been much easier.  Now between phone apps and 27,000 different models to dissect and shop for preferred outcomes it’s a hell of a lot harder.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Seattle may end up waiting for the second low to get snow.  The NAM is way more suppressed.  That's good for delivering much colder air though.

Either way it’ll be something good this week/weekend. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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3km NAM shows 1-3" with an arctic front on Wednesday from roughly Bellingham to Everett out to 60 hours. I don't have the good maps to show, but would love that to verify. Of course it's the Hi-res NAM so take that with like two grains of salt.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Can you Imagine trying to forecast this pattern in 1990? 

It would be like this 

giphy (10).gif

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 16
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 

Severe storms: 2

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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7 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Stupid AVN nam.

It could be better in the long run.  Huge potential with the 500mb pattern shows at the end.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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6 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Can you Imagine trying to forecast this pattern in 1990? 

I clearly remember they called it quite a ways out, briefly pulled back, and then went all in maybe 4 or 5 days before it hit.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The odds for a significant snowstorm in PDX at end of week just went up big time with that NAM run.  I am concerned about potential for some snow falling in Eugene before the inevitable ice.  Wet snow falling on the trees only adds to the surface area and weight from the ice. 
obviously this cuts down on snow to start with in Washington but am not worried for them as they will get some ultimately.

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The trough over BC is sharper on the ICON as well by hour 39.  It's going to dig more.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I clearly remember they called it quite a ways out, briefly pulled back, and then went all in maybe 4 or 5 days before it hit.

And here we are 31 years later, 3 days out and still not sure how this will play out. 

I prefer it this way. Makes every model run exciting, even the ones we would never pay attention to normally. 

195572.png?1673757432

 

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8 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Would have been much easier.  Now between phone apps and 27,000 different models to dissect and shop for preferred outcomes it’s a hell of a lot harder.

Tend to agree. For the most part as a kid they were pretty good about knowing when we would get some arctic air. I remember Nov 85 being a huge bust like the snow storm came out of nothing. I remember watching Harry Wappler  That morning and he only forecasted maybe sleet and then 40 degrees and at 3pm there was 10 inches of snow and it was 19 degrees. I'd like to research that pattern to see what happened and how.

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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New update from Steve Pierce. 

COLDER WEATHER AND SNOW
Updated: 12:30pm Monday 2/8

Confidence is growing today that the coldest weather of the winter season will arrive beginning Thursday and last through the holiday weekend, with the potential for areawide sticking snowfall on the valley floor. 

TIMING --- Cold east wind will increase through the gorge and spill into the Portland metro area as modified arctic air arrives east of the Cascades on Thursday. This will likely be the coldest air of the winter season so far. Once the cold air is in place, models suggest that a system from off the coast will arrive sometime between Thursday afternoon and Friday morning. It is important to note that models have NOT yet come into final agreement on the track of this system. But it is looking more likely that somewhere west of the Cascades from Eugene north to Olympia will likely see valley sticking snow. There will also likely be an area of freezing rain / ice pellets (sleet) that may also accompany this system.

A second system is possible over the weekend, but the exact timing and placement of that system is also still uncertain at this time.

BOTTOM LINE --- Prepare for the coldest weather of the season beginning Thursday as temps fall throughout the day under increasing gorge east wind. Daytime highs may struggle to get above 32 degrees in the Portland metro area Friday and into the weekend. There is an increasing chance of valley sticking snow anytime after Thursday. The finer model details regarding snowfall timing, track and amounts will come into focus later this week. There is going to be a fine line between snow and no snow, until these models come into final agreement.

The KOIN 6 weather team will continue to track this all week long and further details will be forthcoming on-air and online. 

Steve Pierce
KOIN 6 Meteorologist

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16 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

On Samish Way? If so, I hate the speed limits on that road. I always forget where it transitions from 35 to 50 and back again and have had some close calls.

I was driving it last week and noticed the cops had a speed trap going.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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16 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

On Samish Way? If so, I hate the speed limits on that road. I always forget where it transitions from 35 to 50 and back again and have had some close calls.

Yep! That's exactly where he got me. I was zoned out looking at the pretty flakes and didn't realize I was in the 35 until I saw him waiting. Oopsie. Should've stayed home we got a quick shower of small flakes right after I got back 😂 Luckily he wrote down 50 instead of the 54 he caught me doing. 

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18z NAM is in lock-step with the EURO when it pulls cold air from the Gorge into PDX around late Thursday morning-afternoon. I also see 850s are a lot colder Gorge, Columbia Basin -15c to -19c banked up on the east slopes of Washington Cascades which could lead to big league downsloping east/northeast winds.
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Just now, mtep said:

Yep! That's exactly where he got me. I was zoned out looking at the pretty flakes and didn't realize I was in the 35 until I saw him waiting. Oopsie. Should've stayed home we got a quick shower of small flakes right after I got back 😂 Luckily he wrote down 50 instead of the 54 he caught me doing. 

It’s rather deceptive. It’s the old Highway 99, and when it was built it was a rural area, so it was designed for speed, with gradual curves and good sightlines, all of which of course encourages speed. I’ve caught myself driving way over 35 mph on that stretch myself.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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