Jesse Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 4 minutes ago, Cloud said: My god goofus.... get your act together. This model is so freaking lost right now It’s been way more consistent than the Euro the last few days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: There are people on this forum who would take 1" of slush that melts in 30 minutes over a historic arctic outbreak. No joke. I don’t think it’s that necessarily that people are commenting on with the gfs...just that it seems really unrealistic we end up that cold and dry. I’d take a historic blast like that as well as it would probably eventually lead to some snow at some point. I think the models leaning towards the euro are more realistic though. 2 Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 4 minutes ago, Cloud said: My god goofus.... get your act together. This model is so freaking lost right now It has had some victories over the ECMWF recently. I honestly call it a toss up. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Ice storm for New Orleans early next week? 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: I'd be happy with a few inches and blowing snow. Very rare here. Zzzzzzzzzzz. It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 For those both struggling with the stress of intense model riding AND in need of some eye candy... 1 1 1 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: I don’t think it’s that necessarily that people are commenting on with the gfs...just that it seems really unrealistic we end up that cold and dry. I’d take a historic blast like that as well as it would probably eventually lead to some snow at some point. I think the models leaning towards the euro are more realistic though. Didn’t the Euro just move toward the GFS earlier though? It starts to get confusing going down that rabbit hole. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 The warmest ensemble member during the height of the cold is -9. That's pretty nuts. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, Jesse said: Didn’t the Euro just move toward the GFS earlier though? It starts to get confusing going down that rabbit hole. It also did about a week back when the ECMWF was showing the base of the block magically moving inland and ruining the pattern. I was highly suspicious of that and the recent blow out over the ocean thing. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, Jesse said: Didn’t the Euro just move toward the GFS earlier though? It starts to get confusing going down that rabbit hole. You could say the same about the gfs too...models have been so up and down I’ve honestly lost track. No model has actually been consistent at all. I’m viewing it more in a realistic scenario closer to climo...that we don’t end up with a major blast like that...and that pacific influence will likely be stronger. Either option id be happy with but that’s just my prediction. Gfs is usually too cold everyone knows this. 3 Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 7 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Welp, I hope you like cold rain Wouldn't call it cold rain with so much arctic air entrenched. Temps also back in the 20s at this time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 As far as I can see, the ECMWF has been leading the way among the collective output from all of the models. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 18z GEFS Surface Temps - Seattle through Saturday 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said: Wouldn't call it cold rain with so much arctic air entrenched. Temps also back in the 20s at this time. I’m in the medium blue! 1 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 NWS going for 100 foot snow levels hardly seems worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Low locations for GEFS at hr 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Nice to see the weather stations up in Bellingham area in the low to mid 30s mid February also mid afternoon. 43/31 here today. 1 Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said: Low locations for GEFS at hr 120. That’s a big spread which can have major implications afterwards. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 9 minutes ago, Jesse said: It’s been way more consistent than the Euro the last few days. Less back and forth maybe, but the Euro has led the way w/ upper level trends. If anything it’s the CMC that’s performed atrociously more than any other piece of guidance. 2 1 Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Lynden is down to 32 now. Surface gradients will become northerly in all areas this evening and allow that low level cold to seep south. It has begun! 5 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 I say we combine these two! 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 13 minutes ago, Jesse said: Didn’t the Euro just move toward the GFS earlier though? It starts to get confusing going down that rabbit hole. Well the GFS corrected to the Euro 500mb pattern, but the Euro went too far and corrected back somewhat today. I’d still score it 60-40 in favor of the Euro. 4 Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 It’s been a day of circling back thus far. 2 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 I'm kind of intrigued that I still have a SW wind here. When the wind shits later it might squeeze out some precip. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 12 minutes ago, Jesse said: It’s been way more consistent than the Euro the last few days. Yeah. Even in the very short range, the Euro looks like it's whiffing too.... it totally mishandled the PSCZ snow on the foothills last night. Tim mentioned yesterday afternoon he wasn't preparing for any snow at his area because that's what the Euro snow map showed. WRF and few others showed at least couple inches. Looked like he ended up with about 2" this morning. I feel like I'm going to stop reacting to every model runs and just let this thing play itself out. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 We could all just hope the UKMET 12z is right. I haven't seen dramatic run to run changes from the model as it's made steady adjustments. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: I'm kind of intrigued that I still have a SW wind here. When the wind shits later it might squeeze out some precip. DPs have taken a dip today...33/34 most of the morning down to 27/29 range since noon. Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, Deweydog said: It’s been a day of circling back thus far. How many more circles will there be? You still have a gut feeling this will be a O’Canada event? Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 8, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Warm/wet seems increasingly off the table. Glad we've finally established that three days out. 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 These models change their mind more than my girlfriend does. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, Cloud said: Yeah. Even in the very short range, the Euro looks like it's whiffing too.... it totally mishandled the PSCZ snow on the foothills last night. Tim mentioned yesterday afternoon he wasn't preparing for any snow at his area because that's what the Euro snow map showed. WRF and few others showed at least couple inches. Looked like he ended up with about 2" this morning. I feel like I'm going to stop reacting to every model runs and just let this thing play itself out. We can't really use a small scale event to comment on a model as a whole. If you look at the bigger picture and large scale evolution, the ECMWF is leading. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 8 minutes ago, Phil said: Less back and forth maybe, but the Euro has led the way w/ upper level trends. If anything it’s the CMC that’s performed atrociously more than any other piece of guidance. You mean it’s not gonna be 9°F in Fresno? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said: DPs have taken a dip today...33/34 most of the morning down to 27/29 range since noon. 39/30 here right now. Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: I'm kind of intrigued that I still have a SW wind here. When the wind shits later it might squeeze out some precip. You will have a SW wind until Wednesday evening per the ECMWF surface maps. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 The GFS made a significant jump to the Euro 500mb this morning. But it didn’t jump all the way there. So when the 12z Euro corrected back somewhat, it might be easy to mistake that as a cave, when in reality it was the GFS that “caved” more-so in amplitude. Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, wxmet said: We could all just hope the UKMET 12z is right. I haven't seen dramatic run to run changes from the model as it's made steady adjustments. You know it might be. It's pretty much on par with the EPS with snow totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 10 minutes ago, Phil said: Less back and forth maybe, but the Euro has led the way w/ upper level trends. If anything it’s the CMC that’s performed atrociously more than any other piece of guidance. That seems fair. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, wxmet said: We can't really use a small scale event to comment on a model as a whole. If you look at the bigger picture and large scale evolution, the ECMWF is leading. This. 3 Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, Cloud said: Yeah. Even in the very short range, the Euro looks like it's whiffing too.... it totally mishandled the PSCZ snow on the foothills last night. Tim mentioned yesterday afternoon he wasn't preparing for any snow at his area because that's what the Euro snow map showed. WRF and few others showed at least couple inches. Looked like he ended up with about 2" this morning. I feel like I'm going to stop reacting to every model runs and just let this thing play itself out. It actually showed 2-3 inches of snow here. I just did not look close enough and have been focused on the systems later in the week. Looking back... the ECMWF did very well for last night. 2 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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