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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

There are people on this forum who would take 1" of slush that melts in 30 minutes over a historic arctic outbreak. No joke. 

I don’t think it’s that necessarily that people are commenting on with the gfs...just that it seems really unrealistic we end up that cold and dry. I’d take a historic blast like that as well as it would probably eventually lead to some snow at some point. I think the models leaning towards the euro are more realistic though. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Cloud said:

My god goofus.... get your act together. This model is so freaking lost right now 😂 

It has had some victories over the ECMWF recently.  I honestly call it a toss up.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I don’t think it’s that necessarily that people are commenting on with the gfs...just that it seems really unrealistic we end up that cold and dry. I’d take a historic blast like that as well as it would probably eventually lead to some snow at some point. I think the models leaning towards the euro are more realistic though. 

Didn’t the Euro just move toward the GFS earlier though? It starts to get confusing going down that rabbit hole.

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The warmest ensemble member during the height of the cold is -9.  That's pretty nuts.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, Jesse said:

Didn’t the Euro just move toward the GFS earlier though? It starts to get confusing going down that rabbit hole.

It also did about a week back when the ECMWF was showing the base of the block magically moving inland and ruining the pattern.  I was highly suspicious of that and the recent blow out over the ocean thing.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Didn’t the Euro just move toward the GFS earlier though? It starts to get confusing going down that rabbit hole.

You could say the same about the gfs too...models have been so up and down I’ve honestly lost track. No model has actually been consistent at all. I’m viewing it more in a realistic scenario closer to climo...that we don’t end up with a major blast like that...and that pacific influence will likely be stronger. Either option id be happy with but that’s just my prediction. Gfs is usually too cold everyone knows this. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

Wouldn't call it cold rain with so much arctic air entrenched. Temps also back in the 20s at this time. 

sn10_acc.us_state_wa (21).png

I’m in the medium blue! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Nice to see the weather stations up in Bellingham area in the low to mid 30s mid February also mid afternoon. 43/31 here today. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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9 minutes ago, Jesse said:

It’s been way more consistent than the Euro the last few days. 

Less back and forth maybe, but the Euro has led the way w/ upper level trends.

If anything it’s the CMC that’s performed atrociously more than any other piece of guidance. 

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Lynden is down to 32 now.  Surface gradients will become northerly in all areas this evening and allow that low level cold to seep south.  It has begun!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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13 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Didn’t the Euro just move toward the GFS earlier though? It starts to get confusing going down that rabbit hole.

Well the GFS corrected to the Euro 500mb pattern, but the Euro went too far and corrected back somewhat today. I’d still score it 60-40 in favor of the Euro.

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I'm kind of intrigued that I still have a SW wind here.  When the wind shits later it might squeeze out some precip.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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12 minutes ago, Jesse said:

It’s been way more consistent than the Euro the last few days. 

Yeah. Even in the very short range, the Euro looks like it's whiffing too.... it totally mishandled the PSCZ snow on the foothills last night. Tim mentioned yesterday afternoon he wasn't preparing for any snow at his area because that's what the Euro snow map showed. WRF and few others showed at least couple inches. Looked like he ended up with about 2" this morning. 

I feel like I'm going to stop reacting to every model runs and just let this thing play itself out. 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm kind of intrigued that I still have a SW wind here.  When the wind shits later it might squeeze out some precip.

DPs have taken a dip today...33/34 most of the morning down to 27/29 range since noon. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

It’s been a day of circling back thus far.

How many more circles will there be? You still have a gut feeling this will be a O’Canada event? 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 minute ago, Cloud said:

Yeah. Even in the very short range, the Euro looks like it's whiffing too.... it totally mishandled the PSCZ snow on the foothills last night. Tim mentioned yesterday afternoon he wasn't preparing for any snow at his area because that's what the Euro snow map showed. WRF and few others showed at least couple inches. Looked like he ended up with about 2" this morning. 

I feel like I'm going to stop reacting to every model runs and just let this thing play itself out. 

We can't really use a small scale event to comment on a model as a whole. If you look at the bigger picture and large scale evolution, the ECMWF is leading.

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1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

DPs have taken a dip today...33/34 most of the morning down to 27/29 range since noon. 

39/30 here right now. 

Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm kind of intrigued that I still have a SW wind here.  When the wind shits later it might squeeze out some precip.

You will have a SW wind until Wednesday evening per the ECMWF surface maps.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The GFS made a significant jump to the Euro 500mb this morning. But it didn’t jump all the way there.

So when the 12z Euro corrected back somewhat, it might be easy to mistake that as a cave, when in reality it was the GFS that “caved” more-so in amplitude.

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10 minutes ago, Phil said:

Less back and forth maybe, but the Euro has led the way w/ upper level trends.

If anything it’s the CMC that’s performed atrociously more than any other piece of guidance. 

That seems fair.

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1 minute ago, wxmet said:

We can't really use a small scale event to comment on a model as a whole. If you look at the bigger picture and large scale evolution, the ECMWF is leading.

This.

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3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Yeah. Even in the very short range, the Euro looks like it's whiffing too.... it totally mishandled the PSCZ snow on the foothills last night. Tim mentioned yesterday afternoon he wasn't preparing for any snow at his area because that's what the Euro snow map showed. WRF and few others showed at least couple inches. Looked like he ended up with about 2" this morning. 

I feel like I'm going to stop reacting to every model runs and just let this thing play itself out. 

It actually showed 2-3 inches of snow here.  I just did not look close enough and have been focused on the systems later in the week.   Looking back... the ECMWF did very well for last night.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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