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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


BLI snowman

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There is a lot more moisture to work with on this run. Hangs around longer too. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, nwsnow said:

Would give us much more breathing room with that pesky warm nose too.

Gotta love the silly surface temps the GFS puts out during this snowfall.

sfct.us_nw.png

They're really not that silly. The odds may disfavor it at present, but readings like that just might verify.

The runs that were showing single digits were the ones that obviously were not going to happen.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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Interesting to see what happens with Low #2, remember on the 18z it was basically a non-factor. I'm guessing its a little further north this time. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, nwsnow said:

Would give us much more breathing room with that pesky warm nose too.

Gotta love the silly surface temps the GFS puts out during this snowfall.

 

Even with that track, a slightly colder version of 1/10/2017 is most likely. Cold air will be slower than modeled to push into the basin, so even decent precip rates here probably won't push us much below 25 or so.

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2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

They're really not that silly. The odds may disfavor it at present, but readings like that just might verify.

The runs that were showing single digits were the ones that obviously were not going to happen.

We were in the teens here (19F) with snow falling Feb 2014, I know it isn't impossible but that event itself was fairly unusual IMO. It is more likely that GFS is being a bit generous with the cold air advection. I would of course love for this to verify. 

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It's a little north, but still way to far south at hour 120. Maybe some flurries for TWL. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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This is only mildly insane.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_20.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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9 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

Implying the arctic front has somehow slipped south of Eugene? 

With the low staying much further south, basically the entire valley avoids the nasty SW wind and instead has offshore flow. The really cold and deep air east of the cascades would flood the valley via the gorge. This all hinges on the low staying further south though. 

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Just now, Kolk1604 said:

Could be wrong but it looks like it brings down more arctic air as it passes to our south 

I really don't care about arctic air.  Just care about huge snowfalls.  This dry pattern is really not doing it for me lol.

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2 minutes ago, Esquimalt said:

I really don't care about arctic air.  Just care about huge snowfalls.  This dry pattern is really not doing it for me lol.

You seemed to get a lot of snow with the event last year. Of course that was a biproduct of the airmass stalling and missing 85% of us.

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Just now, Jesse said:

Do you have a reason why you don’t or do you just not like it?

It's not consistent with the other models and it's been jumping around quite a bit due to being unable to handle the upper level low in a data sparse region. Generally, you would side with the model with the best data assimilation which in this case is the ECMWF. The GFS has also been trending on a large scale towards the ECMWF but it's not all the way there yet.

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Just now, BLI snowman said:

You seemed to get a lot of snow with the event last year. Of course that was a biproduct of the airmass stalling and missing 85% of us.

Yes.  Just saying the euro or the gem run seems much better for evyerone.  I would love to see Oregon folks and BC folks score and that's what the euro was showing earlier. 

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11 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Even with that track, a slightly colder version of 1/10/2017 is most likely. Cold air will be slower than modeled to push into the basin, so even decent precip rates here probably won't push us much below 25 or so.

So the arctic air rushes through the gorge and meets the approaching precip right over PDX, impressive frontogenesis and explosive thundersnow confirmed? 

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3 minutes ago, Esquimalt said:

I really don't care about arctic air.  Just care about huge snowfalls.  This dry pattern is really not doing it for me lol.

I'd rather marinate the region with arctic air first. In the event of an overrunning event, it wouldn't be a quick changeover. 

Or even if it's borderline, dew points should still be low for us to be good. 

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195572.png?1673757432

 

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