snow drift Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, 12345WeatherNerd said: 0z versus 18z, pretty big difference. Precip shield is nearly up to Olympia on the 00z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, nwsnow said: Would give us much more breathing room with that pesky warm nose too. Gotta love the silly surface temps the GFS puts out during this snowfall. Implying the arctic front has somehow slipped south of Eugene? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 There is a lot more moisture to work with on this run. Hangs around longer too. 3 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 I think and hope that the GFS is handling this poorly and moves towards the Euro. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, nwsnow said: Would give us much more breathing room with that pesky warm nose too. Gotta love the silly surface temps the GFS puts out during this snowfall. They're really not that silly. The odds may disfavor it at present, but readings like that just might verify. The runs that were showing single digits were the ones that obviously were not going to happen. It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 -12c 925mb temps over PDX 10PM Thursday and cools to -14c 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, GobBluth said: Implying the arctic front has somehow slipped south of Eugene? The arctic front never makes it west of the Cascades. Anything in the valley is purely from the gorge. What the posters on here like to call a backdoor event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said: There is a lot more moisture to work with on this run. Hangs around longer too. UPLIFTING trends! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Interesting to see what happens with Low #2, remember on the 18z it was basically a non-factor. I'm guessing its a little further north this time. 3 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 hello there 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 9, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, nwsnow said: Would give us much more breathing room with that pesky warm nose too. Gotta love the silly surface temps the GFS puts out during this snowfall. Even with that track, a slightly colder version of 1/10/2017 is most likely. Cold air will be slower than modeled to push into the basin, so even decent precip rates here probably won't push us much below 25 or so. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, RentonHillTC said: hello there It slides diagonally to the SE and totally misses us, remember? It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: They're really not that silly. The odds may disfavor it at present, but readings like that just might verify. The runs that were showing single digits were the ones that obviously were not going to happen. We were in the teens here (19F) with snow falling Feb 2014, I know it isn't impossible but that event itself was fairly unusual IMO. It is more likely that GFS is being a bit generous with the cold air advection. I would of course love for this to verify. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Temp 29˚F, DP 18˚F. 5 It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Hmmm, I'm looking at something Day 5-6+ I see *hints* right now of the next ridge strengthening merging/anchoring to the high arctic block and keeping us in persistent cold. 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 It's a little north, but still way to far south at hour 120. Maybe some flurries for TWL. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 GFS tosses that low to the south missing most if not all of us. I don't believe anything this run is showing. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Day 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 This is only mildly insane. 4 1 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, wxmet said: GFS tosses that low to the south missing most if not all of us. I don't believe anything this run is showing. Could be wrong but it looks like it brings down more arctic air as it passes to our south 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Got him! 1 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 9 minutes ago, GobBluth said: Implying the arctic front has somehow slipped south of Eugene? With the low staying much further south, basically the entire valley avoids the nasty SW wind and instead has offshore flow. The really cold and deep air east of the cascades would flood the valley via the gorge. This all hinges on the low staying further south though. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, Kolk1604 said: Could be wrong but it looks like it brings down more arctic air as it passes to our south I really don't care about arctic air. Just care about huge snowfalls. This dry pattern is really not doing it for me lol. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 00z IBM GRAF has PDX going below freezing with strong East winds and snow starting Thursday afternoon. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OysterPrintout Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 looked pretty promising before haha jk headed south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 5 minutes ago, wxmet said: GFS tosses that low to the south missing most if not all of us. I don't believe anything this run is showing. Do you have a reason why you don’t or do you just not like it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 9, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: This is only mildly insane. Definitely going to be a historic event for that region. I was perusing the GFS output and saw it spit out a high of 11 for Dallas on Sunday. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Majestic trends tonight. 6 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Blob Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said: 00z IBM GRAF has PDX going below freezing with strong East winds and snow starting Thursday afternoon. Anyway to see Troutdale? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 9, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, Esquimalt said: I really don't care about arctic air. Just care about huge snowfalls. This dry pattern is really not doing it for me lol. You seemed to get a lot of snow with the event last year. Of course that was a biproduct of the airmass stalling and missing 85% of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, Jesse said: Do you have a reason why you don’t or do you just not like it? It's not consistent with the other models and it's been jumping around quite a bit due to being unable to handle the upper level low in a data sparse region. Generally, you would side with the model with the best data assimilation which in this case is the ECMWF. The GFS has also been trending on a large scale towards the ECMWF but it's not all the way there yet. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, BLI snowman said: You seemed to get a lot of snow with the event last year. Of course that was a biproduct of the airmass stalling and missing 85% of us. Yes. Just saying the euro or the gem run seems much better for evyerone. I would love to see Oregon folks and BC folks score and that's what the euro was showing earlier. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: This is interesting. Could my homie the NAM be coming through for us again? I was not a happy camper that day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, Esquimalt said: I really don't care about arctic air. Just care about huge snowfalls. This dry pattern is really not doing it for me lol. It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Why do historically potent blasts of arctic air always have to come along and ruin our snowfall chances here in the NW? 3 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 11 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Even with that track, a slightly colder version of 1/10/2017 is most likely. Cold air will be slower than modeled to push into the basin, so even decent precip rates here probably won't push us much below 25 or so. So the arctic air rushes through the gorge and meets the approaching precip right over PDX, impressive frontogenesis and explosive thundersnow confirmed? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, Esquimalt said: I really don't care about arctic air. Just care about huge snowfalls. This dry pattern is really not doing it for me lol. I'd rather marinate the region with arctic air first. In the event of an overrunning event, it wouldn't be a quick changeover. Or even if it's borderline, dew points should still be low for us to be good. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, The Blob said: Anyway to see Troutdale? Not that I know of, this is off of Mark's weather website. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, Jesse said: Why do historically potent blasts of arctic air always have to come along and ruin our snowfall chances here in the NW? Ew, dry Arctic blasts are the absolute worst. I'd rather have 50 degree drizzle. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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