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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


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Just now, Meatyorologist said:

Part of me wonders if being this late in the season means you have to sacrifice really cold temperatures for decent snowfall in our region. Maybe highs in the mid-thirties are all a part of the deal.

Nope.  Mid Feb 1923 had a day with a high of 20 during a major snowstorm in Seattle.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

No we don't want that.  A SW component would make it turn to rain.  The lower totals in Puget Sound are from the dry east winds.  Looks great to me.

I'm talking about the midlevels, not the surface. The Euro is nearly zonal.

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The amazing cold pool being depicted over Central and Eastern WA is what makes this thing work.  Seepage through the passes / evaporative cooling and presto. Pretty how amazing it's progged to stay so cold with how terrible the 500mb pattern looks at one point.  The flow going back to NW so quickly keeps the cold pool in place.  Really perfect progression.

I don't understand how it can be a great setup for snow with 850's that look like this.  But I guess it works somehow.

850th.us_nw.png

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3 minutes ago, nwsnow said:

Agree on the caution but what surge? The ECMWF isn't really cold compared to the other models. The cold push isn't very impressive by comparison. 

What I really dislike on the euro for PDX is the really marginal 850mb temps. The 0c line sits right over us. 

The very strong east winds blasts low level arctic air and that deepens over PDX metro, especially east of the West Hills.

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6 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

How do you think we'll do up here? 

We should do fine but we probably won't be the big winner out here... and that is just fine with me.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The cold east of the Cascades is what does the trick.  It's very intense during the period in question.

That which is depicted on the Euro is a pretty typical low level influx.  Decent enough to make things interesting but a few distinct notches short of 2014, for example.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Just now, hawkstwelve said:

Seattle didn't have a single high below 32 the entirety of February 2019. 

*SeaTac... We had two on the north end :)

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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3 minutes ago, Acer said:

I don't understand how it can be a great setup for snow with 850's that look like this.  But I guess it works somehow.

850th.us_nw.png

That’s days later though...late this week is looking pretty good here in western WA. I’d be surprised if this event lasted into next week. Lots of times great events only last a few days. Plenty of snow falls and a couple sub freezing days and a couple in the low to mid 30s. Definitely don’t want it to warm up much more...but hard to see how this is bad. This would be a great event still. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Arctic air surging down into the Columbia Basin -13c to -15c. Need that to continue.

The Euro is way slower than the GFS at the cold air advection from the surface to 925mb. Even with these more "moderate" numbers, the euro has insisted for several runs that it will be sufficient for frozen precip. 

-9c 925mb in the gorge

925th.us_nw.png

Finally cools to -12c range and starts to push a bit more into the PDX metro

925th.us_nw.png

 

The GFS by comparison unleashes a flood of cold air

925th.us_nw.png

 

My biggest worry is the marginal 850s turning this into a sleet or ZR storm. 

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Just now, nwsnow said:

The Euro is way slower than the GFS at the cold air advection from the surface to 925mb. Even with these more "moderate" numbers, the euro has insisted for several runs that it will be sufficient for frozen precip. 

-9c 925mb in the gorge

925th.us_nw.png

Finally cools to -12c range and starts to push a bit more into the PDX metro

925th.us_nw.png

 

The GFS by comparison unleashes a flood of cold air

925th.us_nw.png

 

My biggest worry is the marginal 850s turning this into a sleet or ZR storm. 

GFS showing its bias to always be too aggressive with cold, arctic air.

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5 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

What does the detailed map look like for 168hrs?

ECMWF shows rain and mid 40s both Monday and Tuesday.   Totally different set up at the surface... we lose the east wind and deformation magic when the flow turns moderately onshore even if the 850mb temps are still chilly.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Part of me wonders if being this late in the season means you have to sacrifice really cold temperatures for decent snowfall in our region. Maybe highs in the mid-thirties are all a part of the deal.

This is kind of true outside perfect timing. SEA didn't have any highs below 32 in February 2019 and got over 20" of snow.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

The very strong east winds blasts low level arctic air and that deepens over PDX metro, especially east of the West Hills.

Low level Arctic outflow generally resides below about 950mb outside the immediate gorge.  The strength of the outflow doesn’t change that dynamic, mid and upper level dynamics do.  

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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I don’t care for the EURO. 

Hopefully future EURO’s will look better over my house. 
Currently 28. 
 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Low level Arctic outflow generally resides below about 950mb outside the immediate gorge.  The strength of the outflow doesn’t change that dynamic, mid and upper level dynamics do.  

In past studies low level blasts have deepened the cold layer over immediate PDX metro. Not every single time though if there is too much WAA aloft.

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2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Randy is knot onboard.

If this turns into another February 2014...Randy will be NOT HAPPY! 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

That’s days later though...late this week is looking pretty good here in western WA. I’d be surprised if this event lasted into next week. Lots of times great events only last a few days. Plenty of snow falls and a couple sub freezing days and a couple in the low to mid 30s. Definitely don’t want it to warm up much more...but hard to see how this is bad. This would be a great event still. 

Yeah but the 850's are not any colder than that even on the weekend.  They pretty much stay around -2 to -4 most of the time.  I would much prefer the -15 850's on the GFS with lower snow totals.  That's just me though.  I understand what you are saying.  Enjoy your snow while it lasts.

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Just now, DJ Droppin said:

Really need to see the EPS a bit colder

The lack of good cold air is very concerning on this run. Let’s hope it trends a bit cooler. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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6 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

In past studies low level blasts have deepened the cold layer over immediate PDX metro. Not every single time though if there is too much WAA aloft.

That would be the changes to the mid and upper levels. If it’s a true outflow situation, the general rule of thumb remains the same.

What you’re referring to requires some kind of help from above.  Pretty good example would be 12/05 where we saw a gradually deepening basin cold pool which began to slop over the Cascades as mid/upper level conditions became more favorable.  That low level cold depended as a result and gave us the “surprise” snow profile on 12-18.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Just now, Acer said:

Yeah but the 850's are not any colder than that even on the weekend.  They pretty much stay around -2 to -4 most of the time.  I would much prefer the -15 850's on the GFS with lower snow totals.  That's just me though.  I understand what you are saying.  Enjoy your snow while it lasts.

Well I’d be happy if it falls at all. Still pretty chilly for several days with snow cover...and a couple sub freezing highs in the mix. Has snow falling here on multiple days. Either way we can’t control what happens just gonna enjoy the ride. Wether things lean towards the gfs or euro it’s still gonna be pretty good and better than anything so far this winter. Just a week ago people had canceled this winter altogether. Either way...more changes are gonna come and this is definitely not settled. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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NWS took away my subfreezing highs from their forecast. Honestly, probably a pretty good bet unless things trend colder down the home stretch. Being so close to the ocean here means winter days always seem to over perform, especially as compared to members in the foothills. Currently 30/26, so the cold is slowly filtering in still.

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Well I’d be happy if it falls at all. Still pretty chilly for several days with snow cover...and a couple sub freezing highs in the mix. Has snow falling here on multiple days. Either way we can’t control what happens just gonna enjoy the ride. Wether things lean towards the gfs or euro it’s still gonna be pretty good and better than anything so far this winter. Just a week ago people had canceled this winter altogether. Either way...more changes are gonna come and this is definitely not settled. 

Except the problem is, there are none of those in the pattern depicted by the Euro.

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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My main takeaway from this run is that while the snow maps looks fantastic, I'm slightly concerned that it's not as cold as I think it could potentially be. 

Guess at this point we can't really be too choosy... anything to save this winter is OK by me. 

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7 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Except the problem is, there are none of those in the pattern depicted by the Euro.

Those are sub freezing high temps...high temps don’t go above 32 for most for a couple days...unless I’m reading these wrong?

BA853AC1-B0E1-46B7-8EAA-52F1592ED8B4.jpeg

44218F23-EC04-45DE-A2C6-2390871914CE.jpeg

75E9E787-B69F-4684-A411-EA30EA8DD43F.jpeg

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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I wanted to comment on this compared to Feb 2017.  This event will probably be much higher quality snow and fall at colder temps.  A lot more cold air to work with on this one.

Speaking of cold...people exposed to cold outflow from the passes will have the coldest temps with this.  That will help make up for a bit les snow due to the drying effect of the east wind.  Some places could have pretty high ratios with this.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, Acer said:

Those are 10am readings.

18z is 10am on those? My bad...but either way if you run the loop Thursday through Sunday it barely breaks freezing the whole time. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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