February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[SeanNyberg]

Just now, Skagit Weather said:

Don't worry! The UKMET gives the North Sound an inch of snow before immediately transitioning to rain at the end of the run! The idea I get from the models this morning is they still have no idea. Euro probably won't help clarify much either although I hope it doesn't take away all the snowfall up here.

What?

The models seem to finally showing agreement. Sort of the opposite of what you’re saying. When you’ve got Euro holding their line and the GFS finally caving to it. Because of the UKMET (what?) you think the models don’t know what’s going on?

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said:

Still very worrisome for high impact ice storm throughout the Willamette Valley.  9-12 km resolution models do not sufficiently account for the gorge.  
Unreal snow amounts for WA, and perhaps unreal amounts of ice in the Willamette Valley.  If this materializes it will be the most costly weather event for Oregon since 1996 floods

I think you’ll be fine.  The southern valley is likely gonna be in a very fleeting situation for the most part when it comes to the low level cold.  Any really sustained icing seems unlikely to me, aided even more by the February sun.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Don't worry! The UKMET gives the North Sound an inch of snow before immediately transitioning to rain at the end of the run! The idea I get from the models this morning is they still have no idea. Euro probably won't help clarify much either although I hope it doesn't take away all the snowfall up here.

The Euro has settled into a nice groove now.  It's been a while.

[Timmy]

4km wrf shows 8-10” at pdx in the nest 60 hours...

[Timmy]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

UKMET IS TO FAR SOUTH!

*too, and false

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, Timmy said:

4km wrf shows 8-10” at pdx in the nest 60 hours...

Post it

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

16 minutes ago, Skier B said:

Time to get the plow?

Yep, leaving this evening.

[soicandownloadattachedfile]

6 minutes ago, Andrew M said:

NBM gives PDX to Olympia 10-12 inches of snow

Hey where do you find your NBM data?

 

I found this text output from NBM main page. If I'm interpreting it correctly, this shows 41 inches (unless its in cm, 16 inches) of snow at OLM based on the S06 row (snow in 6 Hours). 

 

NBS TEXT BULLETIN - STATION KOLM 

# 

 KOLM    NBM V4.0 NBS GUIDANCE    2/09/2021  1300 UTC                     
 DT /FEB   9/FEB  10                /FEB  11                /FEB  12      
 UTC  18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12
 FHR  05 08 11 14 17 20 23 26 29 32 35 38 41 44 47 50 53 56 59 62 65 68 71
 TXN                    25          42          28          36          23
 XND                     2           1           3           3           4
 TMP  36 41 42 33 30 28 28 29 35 40 40 35 32 31 31 30 32 34 34 29 27 26 25
 TSD   1  1  1  2  2  3  3  2  2  2  2  3  4  4  4  4  3  3  3  3  4  4  4
 DPT  31 29 27 28 26 25 25 25 28 28 29 29 28 27 27 25 25 24 23 22 20 19 18
 DSD   1  1  1  2  2  3  3  2  2  2  2  3  4  4  4  4  3  3  3  3  4  4  4
 SKY  55 30 22 17 37 27 27 50 56 52 66 65 71 73 82 84 78 82 81 83 86 88 87
 SSD  36 24 25 26 37 36 30 40 33 37 35 24 24 25 21 15 20 14 12  8  9  8 11
 WDR   3  1  1  3 18 19 20 20 22 25 27 25  3  4  4  4  4  4  4  4  4  4  4
 WSP   2  2  3  2  2  2  3  3  4  4  5  3  3  3  5  6  7  9  9  8  7  6  7
 WSD   1  1  1  1  1  1  2  2  2  1  2  1  2  1  2  2  2  2  2  2  2  2  2
 GST   3  4  4  4  3  3  4  5  8  9  9  7  5  5  9 10 13 15 13 12 10 10 10
 GSD   3  3  3  3  3  3  3  4  4  3  3  3  3  3  3  4  2  3  3  5  3  3  3
 P06         0     0     0     1     5    12    20    31    44    47    37
 P12                     1           6          29          47          51
 Q06         0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     3     3     1
 Q12                     0           0           0           3           4
 DUR                     0           0           0           1           1
 T03   0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  1  1  1  1  1
 T06         0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     1     1     1
 T12                     0           0           0           1           1
 PZR   0  0  0  0 14 16  0 34 12  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0
 PSN  54  0  0 87 70 84100 66 47 38 19 96100100100100100100100100100100100
 PPL   0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0
 PRA  50100100 14 16  0  0  0 41 62 81 12  7 19  8  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0
 S06         0     0     0     0     0     0     1     2    11    11    16
 SLV   3  7  7  3  0  0  0  0  1  4  6  4  2  2  1  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0
 I06         0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0
 CIG -88-88-88-88-88-88-88-88-88-88-88-88120 28 28  9 48 17 16 25 14 15 49
 IFC  11  1  0  1  7 23 30 30 23  4  0  3 11 19 22 30 22 16 13 10 13 14 10
 LCB  38 60 70100 90 50 90 47 35 19 47 60 70 28 28  9 48 17 16 22 14 15 22
 VIS 100100100100 90 10  5 40 70100100100 90 80 90 90 80100100100100 90100
 IFV   5  0  0  0 11 23 27 21 13  0  0  4 15 21 19 15 10  5 10  3 10 18 12
 MHT  18 33 31  8 12  8  4  7 18 27 25 14  9  8 11 15 19 23 19 15 15 15 15
 TWD   4 27 27 27 27 27 22 21 23 27 27 23 31  4  5  4  4  4  4  4  4  3  4
 TWS   2  2  2  2  3  2  3  5  7  8 10  7  3  5  9 11 11 13 14 14 10 11 12
 HID         5     4     4     4     3     3     3     3     2     2     2
 SOL  24 43 17  1  1  0  0  0 16 26 11  1  1  0  0  0  5 12 10  1  1  0  0

[Timmy]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Post it

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Timmy said:

*too, and false

There you go with your white privilege again. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just now, Timmy said:

 

Thanks and Washington also pls

[snow_wizard]

From what I'm seeing the only model that has had a northward trend in the last day is the GFS.  I think this is pretty close to getting dialed in.

[Skagit Weather]

1 minute ago, SeanNyberg said:

What?

The models seem to finally showing agreement. Sort of the opposite of what you’re saying. When you’ve got Euro holding their line and the GFS finally caving to it. Because of the UKMET (what?) you think the models don’t know what’s going on?

Small position shifts make a big difference in how much snow people end up getting. You tell me you're confident whether you'll see 2" or 18" in Bellevue? If so, let me know your reasoning. Sure the models have settled somewhat, but are still showing pretty radical differences for individual locations. 

[Skier B]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Yep, leaving this evening.

Good call.

[Timmy]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

There you go with your white privilege again. 

*ur

[GobBluth]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

From what I'm seeing the only model that has had a northward trend in the last day is the GFS.  I think this is pretty close to getting dialed in.

The only remaining question seems to be whether the Euro has a better grasp on the temperature profile than all the other models.

[Timmy]

Through Friday 4am

[Perturbed Member]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

From what I'm seeing the only model that has had a northward trend in the last day is the GFS.  I think this is pretty close to getting dialed in.

Was the first low further north on the 06z ECMWF?

[Prairiedog]

30 minutes ago, nwsnow said:

Yep will be a shame for PDX to miss yet another snow event by such a tiny margin. The surface level cold isn't a problem on any model, this low track could allow PDX and lots of western WA to score too but the mid/upper levels are just too mild down here.

Maybe this will be a sleet/ZR event in PDX but it is also getting close now to being a total nonevent if things trend even a hair further north. 48 hours left for this to turn into just a rain event?

Models have had trouble nailing the details down as is usually the case in snow events here.  Devil is in the details.  If there is a way to just get some unforeseen support in the 850's we'd be golden.  I've seen that happen when it wasn't expected.  Cold air at the surface indeed shouldn't be a problem.  Still going to be a close call. 

[North_County]

Pretty steady right at 24° all morning. I see a 22° in Chilliwack, 17° in Hope and 6° 70 miles away in Lytton. -1° a bit further up the canyon in Lillooet. I'm not sure what the normal spread is, but that seems like a pretty big drop, with an elevation gain of only about 700 feet between Hope and Lillooet.

Gets real cold, real fast once you cross over to the interior plateau. -24° in Cariboo at about 1,000 feet.

[TheNewCulverJosh]

Our little friend is developing around 150w/20n currently.

[snow_wizard]

A lot of the models are kind of screwing King County.  Thankfully the Euro usually handles these things better.

[Timmy]

1 minute ago, nwsnow said:

Was the first low further north on the 06z ECMWF?

Yes and the gem

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, North_County said:

Pretty steady right at 24° all morning. I see a 22° in Chilliwack, 17° in Hope and 6° 70 miles away in Lytton. -1° a bit further up the canyon in Lillooet. I'm not sure what the normal spread is, but that seems like a pretty big drop, with an elevation gain of only about 700 feet between Hope and Lillooet.

Gets real cold, real fast once you cross over to the interior plateau. -24° in Cariboo at about 1,000 feet.

The outflow is a mere trickle this morning. It should start ripping tomorrow.

[paulb/eugene]

7 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Thanks and Washington also pls

That appearance on the model suggests all that is freezing pcpn in Willamette Valley.  Anytime the snowfall amounts follow a cold pool/dendritic pattern like that the model is wrong .  That is an ice storm .

[North_County]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

The outflow is a mere trickle this morning. It should start ripping tonight.

As I've said before, I prefer an outflow trickle for selfish snow chances. Unfortunately, I've seen no indication it won't get pretty strong up here this week. That's probably the one thing all of the models have been in complete agreement on for the past several days.

[wxmet]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

A lot of the models are kind of screwing King County.  Thankfully the Euro usually handles these things better.

A lot of models? King County is in a good position right now with all the latest trends

[Omegaraptor]

15 minutes ago, Timmy said:

4km wrf shows 8-10” at pdx in the nest 60 hours...

1/10/17!!!!

[paulb/eugene]

fake snow in Willamette Valley. 

[SalemDuck]

The soundings don’t back up the WRF south of 205 for Oregon. I think the WRF has some sort of modeling issue on the “modeled” snow version, I think it doesn’t see the warm nose for whatever reason.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, North_County said:

As I've said before, I prefer an outflow trickle for selfish snow chances. Unfortunately, I've seen no indication it won't get pretty strong up here this week. That's probably the one thing all of the models have been in complete agreement on for the past several days.

It is what it is, and I am reporting what the models say, not what I want.

That said, there has been something of a northward trend for the weekend’s systems, which are still in clown range, so it would not surprise me if that time frame ends up being significantly snowier for us than present model consensus shows. It is way too early to sulk about being skunked in the snow department.

[SalemDuck]

This is a more accurate map imo

[Cloud]

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

A lot of the models are kind of screwing King County.  Thankfully the Euro usually handles these things better.

What models are you referring you? Because none is screwing central sound. Did You mean the latest UKMET? That’s a single model. 

[Deweydog]

Just now, SalemDuck said:

The soundings don’t back up the WRF south of 205 for Oregon. I think the WRF has some sort of modeling issue on the “modeled” snow version, I think it doesn’t see the warm nose for whatever reason.

It sees it just fine, it just thinks any frozen precip is snow. Then there’s the fact it appears way too aggressive with the low level cold advection as well.  

[MWG]

Currently 37 degrees and n freezing fog for once this morning. Partly cloudy at the moment so I can see us reaching low 50's for today. 

[TheNewCulverJosh]

Like I said before, there is no way the low goes that far north.  It is going to get to a certain point and hit the wall.  Most likely scenario is it makes it to the mouth of the Columbia then stalls and turns SE.....

 

[paulb/eugene]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

It sees it just fine, it just thinks any frozen precip is snow. Then there’s the fact it appears way too aggressive with the low level cold advection as well.  

Without any south winds the heavy cold air will have no problem spilling south from the Gorge.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

What models are you referring you? Because none is screwing central sound. Did You mean the latest UKMET? That’s a single model. 

The WRF is pretty low too...at least through Friday morning.

[Perturbed Member]

3 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

Like I said before, there is no way the low goes that far north.  It is going to get to a certain point and hit the wall.  Most likely scenario is it makes it to the mouth of the Columbia then stalls and turns SE.....

 

Models have pretty decent consensus now on where the low goes. Somewhere between Tillmaook and the mouth of the Columbia.

[Cloud]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

The WRF is pretty low too...at least through Friday morning.

The WRF is going to change a lot from now until Friday and most likely with each of its run. I do agree that the Euro have a better handle on things.