February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[Kolk1604]

I don't think weathermodels has the 6z/18z for the EPS, but have you guys seen the control? Over 16 inches by Saturday with temps in the 20s. 

[Perturbed Member]

6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

It sees it just fine, it just thinks any frozen precip is snow. Then there’s the fact it appears way too aggressive with the low level cold advection as well.  

Seems really aggressive with cooling aloft too, below 925mb

 

[Esquimalt]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

I don't think weathermodels has the 6z/18z for the EPS, but have you guys seen the control? Over 16 inches by Saturday with temps in the 20s. 

What's it like for southern vancouver island? 

[Deweydog]

6 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said:

Without any south winds the heavy cold air will have no problem spilling south from the Gorge.

Winds in the valley are primarily southerly all day Thursday according to the WRF.

[Dave]

35 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said:

Still very worrisome for high impact ice storm throughout the Willamette Valley.  9-12 km resolution models do not sufficiently account for the gorge.  
Unreal snow amounts for WA, and perhaps unreal amounts of ice in the Willamette Valley.  If this materializes it will be the most costly weather event for Oregon since 1996 floods

I'm sure that the 2020 labor day fires will greatly surpass the 1996 floods when the costs are tallied.

[Kolk1604]

3 minutes ago, Esquimalt said:

What's it like for southern vancouver island? 

lol I don't have it someone posted it on twitter so I mentioned it here. @hawkstwelve just posted it though  

[TheNewCulverJosh]

2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Here's the 06z EPS control model. Action starts on Thursday and by Sunday...

You can definitely see the warm push in the valley but I think it is underdoing the CAA that will occur once the low has weakened and comes ashore to the south of Northern Wilamette Valley.

[TheNewCulverJosh]

2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Just got a chance to look at the 06z EPS low location maps. Better consensus than 00z. Looks like there is a good chance the Columbia is the furthest extent north the Euro will go with the first storm.

Can you post the couple frames before that one?

[OysterPrintout]

Just now, TheNewCulverJosh said:

Can you post the couple frames before that one?

[Skagit Weather]

Just hit 32.1F with a dp of 25F. Tragically no subfreezing high today . But honestly, it does look like forecast highs may be too high for today. We have a ways to go, but I wouldn't be surprised to see BLI barely make it above freezing.

[North_County]

14 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

It is what it is, and I am reporting what the models say, not what I want.

That said, there has been something of a northward trend for the weekend’s systems, which are still in clown range, so it would not surprise me if that time frame ends up being significantly snowier for us than present model consensus shows. It is way too early to sulk about being skunked in the snow department.

Oh, I'm not sulking. I know there are times when I score when Skagit County southward (and sometimes even Bellingham) are getting rain. It is what it is. I don't let the weather affect my mood.

But, like Mossman, sometimes I can get greedy and want all the snow too.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, dolt said:

I'm sure that the 2020 labor day fires will greatly surpass the 1996 floods when the costs are tallied.

My god it has been a shitty 12 months. Every day I feel like the nightmare continues. 

[Dave]

Just to be sure, I'm heading to the liquor store later today to stock up on a few gallons of vodka and some frozen pizzas at Safeway. Maybe a few tendies as well. 

[TheNewCulverJosh]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

 

Thank you, that has regionwide from Wilsonville north written all over it.

[GobBluth]

 

3 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

Thank you, that has regionwide from Wilsonville north written all over it.

There's more ensembles heading to Brookings than the mouth of Columbia. 

[TT-SEA]

Gorgeous morning...

[Requiem]

I wonder if I should stock up on some stuff. Mostly food. Always love an excuse to cash in on some Albertson's fried chicken.

[TheNewCulverJosh]

2 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

 

There's more ensembles heading to Brookings than the mouth of Columbia. 

Split that right down the center and I would be happy.  I am going to be golden no matter what, I just want the members here in the central and south valley to get in on the action.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Requiem said:

I wonder if I should stock up on some stuff. Mostly food. Always love an excuse to cash in on some Albertson's fried chicken.

At least if it busts you will be able to sit and watch the rain while enjoying some comfort food. 

[Kolk1604]

Crucial 12z Euro Right now! In the meantime 12z GEFS 

[Randyc321]

1 hour ago, joelgombiner said:

Seattle NWS is forecasting "less than a half inch possible" on Thursday 

I get not wanting to create a panic, but at the same time the public should maybe know that there's a chance of a foot of snow falling in two days? 

 

59 minutes ago, Austin Wright said:

They did the same thing in February 2019 up until about 36 to 48 hours out. Then suddenly it was like a switch flipped and warnings were everywhere. i’m expecting that switch to flip at some point today.

It is starting to be talked about on the radio.

I just got back from a good stock up trip at an empty safeway.  When I get to my truck Nick Allard is on KIRO talking about how the GFS is coming into agreement with the other models. And that they all show more snow. But he still only talked about it like it was over by Friday am.

[Deweydog]

Let the conflicting reports begin!!!

[wxmet]

I’m going out later after the 12z Euro to stock up. Do not want to be in the grocery stores when they finally issue that Winter Storm Watch.

[Dave]

1 minute ago, Requiem said:

I wonder if I should stock up on some stuff. Mostly food. Always love an excuse to cash in on some Albertson's fried chicken.

Best to go asap. Regardless of what ends up happening, a mad rush to the stores is all but inevitable.

For the record, I hope everyone else can score even if I can't. I used to be a bitter poster when I first got here, but I've resigned myself that this shitt will happen. I will bury myself into a bottle when the deep snow pics are shown, but I'll still enjoy them.

[TheNewCulverJosh]

1 minute ago, wxmet said:

I’m going out later after the 12z Euro to stock up. Do not want to be in the grocery stores when they finally issue that Winter Storm Watch.

With the delay I would say they bypass that and go straight to an advisory or warning.  I would expect my watch to become a warning by this evening, overnight at the latest.

[Requiem]

Just now, dolt said:

Best to go asap. Regardless of what ends up happening, a mad rush to the stores is all but inevitable.

For the record, I hope everyone else can score even if I can't. I used to be a bitter poster when I first got here, but I've resigned myself that this shitt will happen. I will bury myself into a bottle when the deep snow pics are shown, but I'll still enjoy them.

Oh me too. Before it was more like, "if I can't have it no one should"-- but now I appreciate the simple joy of anyone in our region scoring.

[OysterPrintout]

1 minute ago, Requiem said:

Oh me too. Before it was more like, "if I can't have it no one should"-- but now I appreciate the simple joy of anyone in our region scoring.

don't you lie to us!

[paulb/eugene]

20 minutes ago, dolt said:

I'm sure that the 2020 labor day fires will greatly surpass the 1996 floods when the costs are tallied.

Duh I should have thought of that but I’m biased by my thought that the fires were preventable .  Negligence on part of utility companies plus methamphetamine addiction probably played a bit of a role.

[Requiem]

Just now, OysterPrintout said:

don't you lie to us!

Ok, maybe my appreciation comes from behind a veil of deep disappointment and jealousy

[Cloud]

9 minutes ago, Requiem said:

I wonder if I should stock up on some stuff. Mostly food. Always love an excuse to cash in on some Albertson's fried chicken.

Invest in an air fryer and make your own fried chicken. A much better alternative than the super greasy stuff they sell at the stores.

[snow drift]

2 minutes ago, dolt said:

Best to go asap. Regardless of what ends up happening, a mad rush to the stores is all but inevitable.

For the record, I hope everyone else can score even if I can't. I used to be a bitter poster when I first got here, but I've resigned myself that this shitt will happen. I will bury myself into a bottle when the deep snow pics are shown, but I'll still enjoy them.

Cold and dry is it here. This isn't a good snow pattern for the citizens of Spokanistan.  I'm hoping for a few inches to blow and drift around. I'll cross my fingers.

[Dave]

1 minute ago, paulb/eugene said:

Duh I should have thought of that but I’m biased by my thought that the fires were preventable .  Negligence on part of utility companies plus methamphetamine addiction probably played a bit of a role.

True, but that could also be said about the 96 floods to some degree, ie building in flood plains, etc.

[paulb/eugene]

1 minute ago, paulb/eugene said:

Duh I should have thought of that but I’m biased by my thought that the fires were preventable .  Negligence on part of utility companies plus methamphetamine addiction probably played a bit of a role.

Kind of like saying an old man getting heart attack while shoveling snow was killed by the snowstorm.

[Kolk1604]

10 am Thursday and the snow has started. 

 

[wxmet]

Compared to the ECMWF 00z, the upper level low in the Pacific is further north on the 12z run through 30 hr.

[bainbridgekid]

Euro coming in North. Looks good for Seattle.

 

[wxmet]

ECMWF 12z

 

[Kolk1604]

4 pm Thursday with snow increasing. Temps are around freezing, but dew points are in the upper 20s.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice rain event for PDX. 

[Dave]