February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Sunday is warmer on this run... as everything is moving faster.   Upper 30s in Seattle that day... but then the flow switches to offshore again ahead of next system which dumps more snow on Sunday night.   That is a true transition event though.   By Monday it shows strong south winds through the entire Sound and temps into the 40s.

Still... Seattle will be basically shut down from Thursday-Monday.  Pretty incredible.  This might be more memorable for the immediate Seattle area than 2019.

If this happens as shown there will be 3 feet again around the canal. Just insane and the same day almost!

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

I was thinking the same thing. Down here, we go our snow in spurts. This would be all at once

I figured this snow event would be done by early next week even a few days ago...which is honestly fine don’t want it going on forever still got to work. Would still be a pretty epic stretch for western WA Thursday-Sunday. Generally our best events only last a couple or a few days...February 2019 was a rare long term event. 

[Winterdog]

Interesting weekend ahead.  I sure like the GFS but I believe the Euro is truly the king.  I'm gonna love watching the snow falling.  That's the best part for me.  Hoping the Portland area gets a bunch before the warmup.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Also, we get another storm Sunday. If that could trend south and we could pull in some cold air from the north, that could be legendary. 

[wxmet]

GFS 12z City Charts

 

[TacomaWaWx]

4 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Going to get my gas and perhaps a nice bike ride through Point Defiance on this lovely day 

Could be a pretty epic weekend coming here in the south sound! 

[ShawniganLake]

5 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

The Canadians think everything will hit them. It could show a storm hitting LA and they would say, "it's trending north!!!!!!Be prepared!!!!!" lol

We have a mole. . Little chance that first system does much of anything north of Bellingham 

[Deweydog]

8 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

Be fun to forecast this based on the Euro alone and, assuming no more warming trends, know that the low being 50-100 miles off busts you bad one way or the other and makes you look like an ******* to the whole city

Imagine how boring (and accurate) it would be to look at two model runs per day.  Life without the NAMGEMRPMGFSPARAGFSPUKEMETNAVGEMHRRRRRRRR is not worth living.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, hawkstwelve said:

Looks like last bit of snow falls Sunday night. 

Here's 4PM Sunday - 4AM Monday as well as Kuchera total snowfall ending at that same time.

Honestly, that is about as good as a run can get. Nobody from Portland up to the BC coast well north of Vancouver should be disappointed if that verifies, and it would be truly epic for the South Sound. Frosty gets something in return for waiting 700+ days.

[Esquimalt]

1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

We have a mole. . Little chance that first system does much of anything north of Bellingham 

I'm thinking even if the precipitation shield extends towards the duncan area as I think it might, it will not be heavy enough to overcome the dry air. 

[Cloud]

Just gonna make up for 2 months of poor winter in one go. Kinda insane this is very reminiscent of 2019.

[OysterPrintout]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Imagine how boring (and accurate) it would be to look at two model runs for per day.  Life without the NAMGEMRPMGFSPARAGFSPUKEMETNAVGEMHRRRRRRRR is not worth living.

hey I need to spend the ENTIRE day looking at model runs so I can tell my friends that between 0-11" of snow is possible sometime between Thu-Sun

[Blizzard777]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Could be a pretty epic weekend coming here in the south sound! 

We are deserving for all the times we have been shadowed or had to deal with south winds creating a nice CZ for northern Washingtonians

 

[Requiem]

So looks like Portland could be in for quite a messy system.

[fubario]

i guess my oly lotto ticket may hit?

[TacomaWaWx]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Just gonna make up for 2 months of poor winter in one go. Kinda insane this is very reminiscent of 2019.

Literally feels like we just went back to 2019. Could end up with pretty similar results....just not quite as spread out over 10 days it all happens in like 4 days instead. 

[smerfylicious]

Even through next week temps at SeaTac are looking pretty good. What snow we get is likely to stick around for a little while longer, and if there's any adjustment down there's a shot later in the week it seems for a bit more powder.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

 

Benjamin Jurkovich

 

@BenjaminJurkovi

·

29m

 

1) Here is the arctic airmass currently in the Fraser Plateau of BC compared to the ones @ the onset of the Jan 2020 and Feb 2019 cold spells. The 2019 and 2020 graphics were the day of the first event. Case in point, arctic air is building sooner and deeper this go around. #wawx

Benjamin Jurkovich

 

2) By sooner, I mean in relation to the "event." Keep in mind however that each one of these events was different and will not play out exactly the same. I am optimistic though seeing the deeper cold air begin to pool against the southern mountains of BC at this point in the game

 

 

 

[ShawniganLake]

2 minutes ago, Esquimalt said:

I'm thinking even if the precipitation shield extends towards the duncan area as I think it might, it will not be heavy enough to overcome the dry air. 

I like an inch or two for Victoria with that first system at this point.  Also be watching for surface low development off Vancouver island once that sub -10C 850mb air starts streaming out over the ocean. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

I like an inch or two for Victoria with that first system at this point.  Also be watching for surface low development off Vancouver island once that sub -10C 850mb air starts streaming out over the ocean. 

Yea they tend pop up around neah bay

[Esquimalt]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

Yea they tend pop up around neah bay

Sometimes off the northern tip of vancouver island too. 

[Deweydog]

5 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

hey I need to spend the ENTIRE day looking at model runs so I can tell my friends that between 0-11" of snow is possible sometime between Thu-Sun

Tossing out the UKMET?  Shrewd, veteran move...

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just now, Esquimalt said:

Sometimes off the northern tip of vancouver island too. 

Yup! Would not be surprised! Up north is positioned to do well Sunday night!!!

[SalemDuck]

Euro has already begun underestimating the arctic air. Here's the last three runs at what was initialization (4am) this morning.
Today

Last night's euro

Yesterday's 12z

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, SalemDuck said:

Euro has already begun underestimating the arctic air. Here's the last three runs at what was initialization (4am) this morning.
Today

Last night's euro

Yesterday's 12z

Wouldn't that shove the snowstorms a bit more south?

[mtep]

54 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

10 am Thursday and the snow has started. 

 

I like

[ShawniganLake]

8 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

 

Benjamin Jurkovich

 

@BenjaminJurkovi

·

29m

 

1) Here is the arctic airmass currently in the Fraser Plateau of BC compared to the ones @ the onset of the Jan 2020 and Feb 2019 cold spells. The 2019 and 2020 graphics were the day of the first event. Case in point, arctic air is building sooner and deeper this go around. #wawx

Benjamin Jurkovich

 

2) By sooner, I mean in relation to the "event." Keep in mind however that each one of these events was different and will not play out exactly the same. I am optimistic though seeing the deeper cold air begin to pool against the southern mountains of BC at this point in the game

 

 

 

-37F at Clinton this morning. That’s a little milder than last January but a touch colder than Feb 2019.  We have a cabin up in that area and hit -40 last January

[Requiem]

I'm still banking on a January 1998 type event

[Frontal Snowsquall]

6 minutes ago, SalemDuck said:

Euro has already begun underestimating the arctic air. Here's the last three runs at what was initialization (4am) this morning.
Today

Last night's euro

Yesterday's 12z

Good find!

[MossMan]

No two feet of snow for me this time. Hopefully I can still reach the one foot mark...If I’m lucky.

[Randyc321]

Just got a text alert from King 5.   Several inches possible.

It begins....

[Timmy]

Meanwhile my nasty rat dog has began sun bathing again, usually happens mid February. Sun angles on the rise!

[Kolk1604]

5 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Wouldn't that shove the snowstorms a bit more south?

Maybe it's leaning toward the GFS and could be colder. 

[Slushy Inch]

5 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Wouldn't that shove the snowstorms a bit more south?

Ask the GFS

[SouthHillFrosty]

We lost the GDPS. Show's the major snow over Portland

[GobBluth]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

We lost the GDPS. Show's the major snow over Portland

48 hours out from the event and the Euro off on its own.

[Kolk1604]

2 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

48 hours out from the event and the Euro off on its own.

Yeah and the Canadian on it's own planet. 

[Requiem]

It’s wait and see at this point whether portland gets snow, ice, or sleet. Or just plain rain!

[The Swamp]

5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

And then mean snowfall by Saturday morning... Again, more than 00z but roughly the same as 06z.

 

That is a buttload of snow.

[MossMan]

Come on mouth of Columbia landfall or slightly north of that!!!!