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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


BLI snowman

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Just now, BLI snowman said:

Not counting the two historically mild winters where it barely snowed here in that timeframe, sure. 3/10 ain't bad, I guess!

We're apparently still paying for 1/10/17,,,

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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1 minute ago, Andrew M said:

1 Nam run and its storm canceled huh? 

Idk models have just gotten worse and worse the past day

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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lol y’all are taking the NAM seriously? Can’t remember any occasion it’s ever been remotely accurate besides the big windstorm last month. PDX still has some hope....very good odds still up here in Washington. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Not counting the two historically mild winters where it barely snowed here in that timeframe, sure. 3/10 ain't bad, I guess!

Everything is relative. Areas south of Kelso were the big winners in December 2013, February 2014, January 2016, December/January 2016-17 and February 2018. We ran up quite a tab in a warming climate.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 minute ago, Esquimalt said:

No one should be looking at the 18Z HRRR. Disgusting lol

It has a major bias against CAA and evaporative cooling.... really just cold in general.

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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14 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Here's a NAM and Euro comparison for 10 pm Thursday.

snku_acc.us_state_wa (22).png

snku_acc.us_state_wa (21).png

I LOVE the snow enthusiasm!!
But, I think using the 10:1 snow ratio is likely more accurate Sure, super cold temps can mean higher ratio, sloppier wetter snow has lower ratios, but I think 1:10 is better for setting expectations. Kuchera is typically more colorful, definitely more "Alice in Wonderland," LOL, but in terms of realistic expectation setting and discussing amongst those who know a bit more than the average person about the weather, the standard ratio is probably the best bet. 

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2 minutes ago, Andrew M said:

1 Nam run and its storm canceled huh? 

That's what PDX NWS did the other day ;)

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Quite a few of the models predicted highs in the upper 30s to low 40s in Bellingham...Lol they’re having a hard time getting to 30 currently. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Idk models have just gotten worse and worse the past day

Euro at least is giving Oregon more snowfall. A few runs had it mostly up in Washington.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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1 minute ago, ..... said:

this thing will wobble back and forth and be a real time situation

i don't think anything is on or off the table

It really sucks this is what to have to contend with EVERY single time. The NAM run is kinda heartbreaking for PDX tbh,  but I wouldn’t look much into just yet. Would like to have an airmass where a tiny wobble makes zero difference. Sheesh. 

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Just now, TacomaWaWx said:

Quite a few of the models predicted highs in the upper 30s to low 40s in Bellingham...Lol they’re having a hard time getting to 30 currently. 

Yeah, it seems that the cold pool is deeper than previously modeled... That doesn't happen often. It's usually the other way around.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Quite a few of the models predicted highs in the upper 30s to low 40s in Bellingham...Lol they’re having a hard time getting to 30 currently. 

And the wind was supposed to be calm today in the central Sound area, but there's been a steady north breeze all day. This cold air is ready to go!! 

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15 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Kuchera comparison between 12z and 18z NAM is even more insane.

I try not to dig on the NAM too much because it needs a friend in this world, but can we really take it seriously when it makes such a huge leap in one run?

2021-02-09 12_33_41-Window.png

We can when the other models are showing the same thing...

Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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Just now, Deweydog said:

Everything is relative. Areas south of Kelso were the big winners in December 2013, February 2014, January 2016, December/January 2016-17 and February 2018. We ran up quite a tab in a warming climate.

Sure, not to mention March 2012 and even some of the weak stuff that we had in 2012-13.

It's not really about "winning" so much as it's about being left with so little while so much is going on a relatively short distance away. It'd be different if we had a couple more 2-3" events to show for the last few years. My snowiest event since 2018 was in fact last Pi Day! A fairly unusual stretch of ineptitude in the midst of other places seeing some really big totals.

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5 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Idk models have just gotten worse and worse the past day

I hear ya, been through these busts a million times, never gets easier. That said, i'm not sold on this being a bust yet. Even the bust models give us some snow and freezing rain. Slight adjust will make huge differences here. This could be the last shift north before some wobbles south tonight into tomorrow, seen that a million times too. Time will tell

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Just now, joelgombiner said:

And the wind was supposed to be calm today in the central Sound area, but there's been a steady north breeze all day. This cold air is ready to go!! 

Tims Surface wind maps from the euro which are pretty accurate usually showed SW winds going into Wednesday afternoon...but we’ve had light offshore winds out of the NE here since late last night. I figured it’d be a while before we had all offshore winds. Not too cold down this way 40 with a DP of 29. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Quite a few of the models predicted highs in the upper 30s to low 40s in Bellingham...Lol they’re having a hard time getting to 30 currently. 

The March south is also quite evident. Sedro-Woolley have dropped a few degrees in the last half hour it seems. 

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3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Sure, not to mention March 2012 and even some of the weak stuff that we had in 2012-13.

It's not really about "winning" so much as it's about being left with so little while so much is going on a relatively short distance away. It'd be different if we had a couple more 2-3" events to show for the last few years. My snowiest event since 2018 was in fact last Pi Day! A fairly unusual stretch of ineptitude in the midst of other places seeing some really big totals.

Yeah these things come in waves. I remember a 10+ inch storm in Feb2017, Feb2019 and Jan2020 (and now possibly this week again). But before that we’d have to go back to 2014 or 2011 to get anything that big up here

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7 minutes ago, Timmy said:

Anyone saying it’s just one run in the PDX area. Have you not seen the last couple of runs this is a trend and it’s really not looking good for our area

Trend is pretty clear at this point, we're likely to see the 00z runs tonight and 12z runs tomorrow scoot a smidge further north. Even our ice is looking pretty tenuous at this point, IMO.

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Tims Surface wind maps from the euro which are pretty accurate usually showed SW winds going into Wednesday afternoon...but we’ve had light offshore winds out of the NE here since late last night. I figured it’d be a while before we had all offshore winds. Not too cold down this way 40 with a DP of 29. 

Yeah... there will be a strong SW wind tomorrow afternoon in the Seattle area. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, Cloud said:

The March south is also quite evident. Sedro-Woolley have dropped a few degrees in the last half hour it seems. 

Yup. Looks like most places north of Mt. Vernon in the San Juan’s and Bellingham are 30-35 degrees with dropping DPs. Nice to see! 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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I wasn't extensively watching models in Feb 2019, what exactly screwed PDX out of that? Continuous shots at good snow and regionally that month was amazing.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Totals through the final frame of the 18z 3km NAM, which is Thursday night.

nam-nest-washington-total_snow_kuchera-3109600.png

There’s always something about this map that bugs me. It’s like someone takes some paint and throw it against the wall.

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Just now, The Blob said:

Yup, I remember looking out the window and thinking it wasn't going to stop. 

The question is whether that was worth several consecutive years of ridiculously close busts-- not that it works that way, but interesting to think about.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... there will be a strong SW wind tomorrow afternoon in the Seattle area. 

But wasn’t there supposed to be onshore flow all the way through Wednesday? Not that it matters much but just out of curiosity it won’t really matter until Thursday. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

The March south is also quite evident. Sedro-Woolley have dropped a few degrees in the last half hour it seems. 

It's 36 with a light northerly wind here and full sun. Still wouldn't be surprised to climb a couple degrees, but probably should stay below 40F.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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