jakerepp Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 8 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: 1 am sunday and still snowing. Temps also still in the 20s. Lets keep this southernly track going for next monday too! How sad is it that I'm looking at this and thinking 'man, I'll be annoyed if I only get 15'' and Portland gets 30''!' 2 1 1 Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: My son is in heaven at Snoqualmie Summit today... Thanks for sharing, that looks nice Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 3 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North_County Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 6 minutes ago, Jesse said: Ive been toying with the idea of taking a 24 hour break from the models and seeing how things look tomorrow evening. I doubt I have the will power though. The best part is catching up on 24 hours of posts here and the insane mood swings over the course of the day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Blob Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 I think these models flip flop more than John Kerry. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 9, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Seattle WA 207 PM PST Tue Feb 9 2021 WAZ504-509-511-512-569-101200- /O.NEW.KSEW.WS.A.0003.210211T1800Z-210212T1800Z/ Southwest Interior-Tacoma Area-Hood Canal Area- Lower Chehalis Valley Area-Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties- including Lacey, Olympia, Tumwater, Yelm, Grand Mound, Rochester, Centralia, Toledo, Tacoma, Fife, DuPont, Puyallup, Shelton, Seabeck, Belfair, Brinnon, Montesano, Elma, McCleary, Morton, Ashford, Packwood, Randle, Paradise, and Longmire 207 PM PST Tue Feb 9 2021 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 8 inches possible. * WHERE...Southwest Interior, Hood Canal Area, Lower Chehalis Valley Area, Tacoma Area, and the Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties. * WHEN...From Thursday morning through Friday morning. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow is expected to develop by late Thursday morning and continue into Friday morning. The heaviest period of snow is expected to be Thursday evening. So close, yet so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Even though I'm in a slight screw hole there is still at least 8 inches! lol the light purple between Seattle and Tacoma? Not sure how it comes up with that but i think you'll be fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fircrest Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 4 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: Cliff Mass is on board and the NWS issues the kiss of death, they should have waited until 1 AM Thursday at the earliest. Did you finally deal with that racoon? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 PDX’s pathway to 40 each day is a narrower on the 18z. 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, Fircrest said: I totally agree. But there is always a bit of doubt in the back of my mind...been burned too many times! Pretty much all the forecasters are on board...Thursday snowstorm is kicking down our door in less than 48 hours. 2 Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 So they don't include Seattle area in the wsw? Ok... We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, The Blob said: I think these models flip flop more than John Kerry. Posts from 2004 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 That Monday storm finally gets Timmy Supercell 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 GEFS 18z looks a lot like 06z so far. Was 12z just a wobble or are 18z/06z smoking rocks like Tim believes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luterra Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 10 minutes ago, SalemDuck said: 18z Fully Drunk OK, let's push this thing back north. I do NOT want 2 inches of ice. Seems like not much chance of getting back in the snow zone whatever happens... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post wxmet Posted February 9, 2021 Popular Post Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Here's a quick annotated WV image that illustrates what's happening. The area in yellow is an upper level low that represents the northern portion of the trough. It will move northward into Alaska. The area red is the southern end of the trough that will head northward and close off into an upper level low. It will then head WSW into California or northern Oregon. An upper level low with this track favors a low pressure system in the region of maximum divergence which is the upper right sector of the upper level low. A baroclinic leaf will extend north from the center of this upper level low bringing with it moisture and precipitation. Snow will be favored in the cold conveyor belt where air is being isentropically-forced over the cold air mass coming down from the B.C. 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Although there does seem to be much better agreement with 18z GEFS low locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 12 minutes ago, SalemDuck said: 18z Fully Drunk Can you imagine if this actually happens! Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 12 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: I have been saving links to some of Requiem’s weenie posts just to repost in case that happens. Doubt it will, but go right ahead haha 1 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, RentonHillTC said: Although there does seem to be much better agreement with 18z GEFS low locations. Looks like there was a lot of agreement on the 06Z too lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OysterPrintout Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 haha I go to a meeting and come back to the 18z gfs what did I tell you losers no way we're getting off that easy 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, iFred said: Ugh, I see this either being epic for us Everett area folks or being a let down. On one hand, as we have seen with a variety of storms, the low trends a touch north, the moisture makes it up the I5 corridor, and we over preform, excluding any CZ action. In addition, we hold onto the cold longer and have a shot of something through Monday. On the other hand, this system remains suppressed, moisture gets eaten up by outflow. Then with no serious outflow support, we warm up with the rest of the Sound but without much snow as we remained shadowed or too far North for the CZ. I guess karma for 2019 and my "worst weather forum admin weenie takes since Kevin Martin" takes. Weenie reacts only. My fear exactly. Main reason I haven't bought in yet. I still remember getting almost no snow in January 2012. Rearrange the the numbers and swap out a few letters and January 2012 --> February 2021. Seems like a sign. 1 Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 7 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: lol the light purple between Seattle and Tacoma? Not sure how it comes up with that but i think you'll be fine Dry east wind. It will cost me some snow, but it will be colder here. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westiztehbest Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Hoping the snowfall maps verify. This would be amazing to see with everyone posting pics of the event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 8 minutes ago, Fircrest said: Did you finally deal with that racoon? Not entirely, he's been going back and forth in the yard today, so far not threatening but getting a bit closer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, OysterPrintout said: haha I go to a meeting and come back to the 18z gfs what did I tell you losers no way we're getting off that easy I will OWN being a loser if we don’t get off easy this time around lol 1 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 The NWS zone forecasts don't make any sense. You would think this was an elevation dependent event. Here is the zone forecast for the Central Valley. FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain and snow in the morning, then a chance of rain and snow showers in the afternoon. Snow level 500 feet increasing to 1500 feet in the afternoon. Highs 30 to 35. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. .FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of rain and snow showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with a chance of rain after midnight. Snow level 1500 feet. Lows 20 to 25. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. .SATURDAY...Rain and snow likely. Snow level 1000 feet. Highs 30 to 35. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 16 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Seattle WA 207 PM PST Tue Feb 9 2021 WAZ504-509-511-512-569-101200- /O.NEW.KSEW.WS.A.0003.210211T1800Z-210212T1800Z/ Southwest Interior-Tacoma Area-Hood Canal Area- Lower Chehalis Valley Area-Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties- including Lacey, Olympia, Tumwater, Yelm, Grand Mound, Rochester, Centralia, Toledo, Tacoma, Fife, DuPont, Puyallup, Shelton, Seabeck, Belfair, Brinnon, Montesano, Elma, McCleary, Morton, Ashford, Packwood, Randle, Paradise, and Longmire 207 PM PST Tue Feb 9 2021 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 8 inches possible. * WHERE...Southwest Interior, Hood Canal Area, Lower Chehalis Valley Area, Tacoma Area, and the Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties. * WHEN...From Thursday morning through Friday morning. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow is expected to develop by late Thursday morning and continue into Friday morning. The heaviest period of snow is expected to be Thursday evening. Bummer nothing yet for my area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 The AFD from the NWS gets me all giddy. Especially the end of it. Models are starting to converge on the next weather system slated to arrive on Thursday with a surface low potentially making landfall near the mouth of the Columbia late Thursday night. This is the "sweet spot" for a surface low to move onshore in terms of snow. With plenty of cold air in place and low dewpoints initially, significant accumulating snowfall looks like a good bet...especially for areas south and west of Seattle. Between midday Thursday and midday Friday, 3 to 8 inches of snow look likely from Pierce County southward and over by Hood Canal with lighter amounts elsewhere. There may be something of "lull" in snowfall Friday afternoon before another system arrives late Friday night and Saturday. And this one could be quite significant with snowfall. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Even with the nice color there is no watches for the Seattle area lol. Criteria must be over 30” 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Wake me up when the Euro shows something similar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alex_Snakes Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 I have been lurking on this forum since 2008, and I have never seen any maps like the ones we are seeing. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, FroYoBro said: Wake me up when the Euro shows something similar. Wake you before the Euro go go? 1 1 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 13 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: A work of art. I saved the GFS one just for posterity's sake. Anyone know if we've ever seen the Euro and the GFS show this amount of snow. I think it's better than they ever showed in 2019. Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: Wake you before the Euro go go? Don’t wanna miss it when you please trend south 1 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 5 minutes ago, seattleweatherguy said: Bummer nothing yet for my area The watch they just posted is just their opening move. Going with the surest thing first. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, snow_wizard said: The watch they just posted is jut their opening move. Going with the surest thing first. Oh for sure it’s going to happen from the NWS. Just find it quite hilarious that they’re holding back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gummy Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 7 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said: My fear exactly. Main reason I haven't bought in yet. I still remember getting almost no snow in January 2012. Rearrange the the numbers and swap out a few letters and January 2012 --> February 2021. Seems like a sign. Yea, that one was rough. It looked like Seattle would get 12-18 inches and then the system went south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 hour ago, SeanNyberg said: I LOVE the snow enthusiasm!! But, I think using the 10:1 snow ratio is likely more accurate Sure, super cold temps can mean higher ratio, sloppier wetter snow has lower ratios, but I think 1:10 is better for setting expectations. Kuchera is typically more colorful, definitely more "Alice in Wonderland," LOL, but in terms of realistic expectation setting and discussing amongst those who know a bit more than the average person about the weather, the standard ratio is probably the best bet. True. Models also tend to underplay snow totals so I like to air on the side of caution and go with the over 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 WEEEEEE 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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