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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


BLI snowman

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8 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

1 am sunday and still snowing. Temps also still in the 20s. Lets keep this southernly track going for next monday too! 

snku_acc.us_state_wa (25).png

How sad is it that I'm looking at this and thinking 'man, I'll be annoyed if I only get 15'' and Portland gets 30''!'

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  • Weenie 1

Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

My son is in heaven at Snoqualmie Summit today...

Screenshot_20210209-140545_Snapchat.jpg

Screenshot_20210209-140540_Snapchat.jpg

Screenshot_20210209-140519_Snapchat.jpg

Thanks for sharing, that looks nice ;)

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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6 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Ive been toying with the idea of taking a 24 hour break from the models and seeing how things look tomorrow evening. I doubt I have the will power though. 😅

The best part is catching up on 24 hours of posts here and the insane mood swings over the course of the day.

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Seattle WA
207 PM PST Tue Feb 9 2021

WAZ504-509-511-512-569-101200-
/O.NEW.KSEW.WS.A.0003.210211T1800Z-210212T1800Z/
Southwest Interior-Tacoma Area-Hood Canal Area-
Lower Chehalis Valley Area-Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties-
including Lacey, Olympia, Tumwater, Yelm, Grand Mound, Rochester,
Centralia, Toledo, Tacoma, Fife, DuPont, Puyallup, Shelton,
Seabeck, Belfair, Brinnon, Montesano, Elma, McCleary, Morton,
Ashford, Packwood, Randle, Paradise, and Longmire
207 PM PST Tue Feb 9 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 8
  inches possible.

* WHERE...Southwest Interior, Hood Canal Area, Lower Chehalis
  Valley Area, Tacoma Area, and the Cascades of Pierce and Lewis
  Counties.

* WHEN...From Thursday morning through Friday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow is expected to develop by late
  Thursday morning and continue into Friday morning. The heaviest
  period of snow is expected to be Thursday evening.

 

So close, yet so far.

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3 minutes ago, Fircrest said:

I totally agree.  But there is always a bit of doubt in the back of my mind...been burned too many times!

Pretty much all the forecasters are on board...Thursday snowstorm is kicking down our door in less than 48 hours. 

  • Like 2

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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That Monday storm finally gets Timmy Supercell

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_23.png

  • Storm 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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12 minutes ago, SalemDuck said:

18z Fully Drunk

1613325600-wlcIvC4jTxk.png
1613325600-9fJhomr2XG4.png
1613325600-lj90qpxxTWA.png

Can you imagine if this actually happens!

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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12 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I have been saving links to some of Requiem’s weenie posts just to repost in case that happens.

Doubt it will, but go right ahead haha

  • Weenie 1

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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3 minutes ago, iFred said:

Ugh, I see this either being epic for us Everett area folks or being a let down. On one hand, as we have seen with a variety of storms, the low trends a touch north, the moisture makes it up the I5 corridor, and we over preform, excluding any CZ action. In addition, we hold onto the cold longer and have a shot of something through Monday.

On the other hand, this system remains suppressed, moisture gets eaten up by outflow. Then with no serious outflow support, we warm up with the rest of the Sound but without much snow as we remained shadowed or too far North for the CZ. I guess karma for 2019 and my "worst weather forum admin weenie takes since Kevin Martin" takes.

Weenie reacts only.

My fear exactly. Main reason I haven't bought in yet. I still remember getting almost no snow in January 2012. Rearrange the the numbers and swap out a few letters and January 2012 --> February 2021. Seems like a sign.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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7 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

lol the light purple between Seattle and Tacoma? Not sure how it comes up with that but i think you'll be fine

Dry east wind.  It will cost me some snow, but it will be colder here.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, OysterPrintout said:

haha I go to a meeting and come back to the 18z gfs what did I tell you losers no way we're getting off that easy

I will OWN being a loser if we don’t get off easy this time around lol 

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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The NWS zone forecasts don't make any sense. You would think this was an elevation dependent event. Here is the zone forecast for the Central Valley. 

FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain and snow in the morning,
 then a chance of rain and snow showers in the afternoon. Snow level
 500 feet increasing to 1500 feet in the afternoon. Highs 30 to 35.
 Chance of precipitation 50 percent. 
 .FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of rain and snow showers
 in the evening, then mostly cloudy with a chance of rain after
 midnight. Snow level 1500 feet. Lows 20 to 25. Chance of
 precipitation 50 percent. 
 .SATURDAY...Rain and snow likely. Snow level 1000 feet. Highs 30 to
 35. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. 
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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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16 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Seattle WA
207 PM PST Tue Feb 9 2021

WAZ504-509-511-512-569-101200-
/O.NEW.KSEW.WS.A.0003.210211T1800Z-210212T1800Z/
Southwest Interior-Tacoma Area-Hood Canal Area-
Lower Chehalis Valley Area-Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties-
including Lacey, Olympia, Tumwater, Yelm, Grand Mound, Rochester,
Centralia, Toledo, Tacoma, Fife, DuPont, Puyallup, Shelton,
Seabeck, Belfair, Brinnon, Montesano, Elma, McCleary, Morton,
Ashford, Packwood, Randle, Paradise, and Longmire
207 PM PST Tue Feb 9 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 8
  inches possible.

* WHERE...Southwest Interior, Hood Canal Area, Lower Chehalis
  Valley Area, Tacoma Area, and the Cascades of Pierce and Lewis
  Counties.

* WHEN...From Thursday morning through Friday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow is expected to develop by late
  Thursday morning and continue into Friday morning. The heaviest
  period of snow is expected to be Thursday evening.

Bummer nothing yet for my area

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The AFD from the NWS gets me all giddy. Especially the end of it. 

Models are starting to converge on the next weather system slated
to arrive on Thursday with a surface low potentially making
landfall near the mouth of the Columbia late Thursday night. This
is the "sweet spot" for a surface low to move onshore in terms of
snow. With plenty of cold air in place and low dewpoints
initially, significant accumulating snowfall looks like a good
bet...especially for areas south and west of Seattle. Between
midday Thursday and midday Friday, 3 to 8 inches of snow look
likely from Pierce County southward and over by Hood Canal with
lighter amounts elsewhere.

There may be something of "lull" in snowfall Friday afternoon before
another system arrives late Friday night and Saturday. And this
one could be quite significant with snowfall.
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195572.png?1673757432

 

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13 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

euro.png

18z.png

A work of art. I saved the GFS one just for posterity's sake. Anyone know if we've ever seen the Euro and the GFS show this amount of snow. I think it's better than they ever showed in 2019.

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Wake you before the Euro go go?

Don’t wanna miss it when you please trend south 

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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5 minutes ago, seattleweatherguy said:

Bummer nothing yet for my area

The watch they just posted is just their opening move.  Going with the surest thing first.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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7 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

My fear exactly. Main reason I haven't bought in yet. I still remember getting almost no snow in January 2012. Rearrange the the numbers and swap out a few letters and January 2012 --> February 2021. Seems like a sign.

Yea, that one was rough. It looked like Seattle would get 12-18 inches and then the system went south.

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1 hour ago, SeanNyberg said:

I LOVE the snow enthusiasm!!
But, I think using the 10:1 snow ratio is likely more accurate Sure, super cold temps can mean higher ratio, sloppier wetter snow has lower ratios, but I think 1:10 is better for setting expectations. Kuchera is typically more colorful, definitely more "Alice in Wonderland," LOL, but in terms of realistic expectation setting and discussing amongst those who know a bit more than the average person about the weather, the standard ratio is probably the best bet. 

True. Models also tend to underplay snow totals so I like to air on the side of caution and go with the over :D

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195572.png?1673757432

 

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