wxmet Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 NAM 00z bringing back the idea of a c-zone forming tomorrow night and moving down the Sound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 Looks looks a bit further South so far on the 00z NAM through hour 30. 5 2 1 Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OysterPrintout Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, Jesse said: Isn't it usually used for precip? My guess is it just drifts toward climo for temperature output the farther out you get. yeah I think so. Mark seems like it the day of - I feel like every time I've tracked it at mesoscale it has busted pretty bad for snow though. Busted back in Jan where the high res WRF was king. I don't really look at it until the event is happening - sorta use it as radar, not that it has been great at that in my experience even. YMMV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, RentonHillTC said: I was going to offer lawn space for everyone up in twisp but the deer seem to have taken over On my bike ride today at Point Defiance saw one deer and 4 raccoons ( assuming those are hiding from Chris). Previous rides not a raccoon in sight but the area is known for these baggers. They know somethings 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 Calm before the storm. 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 6 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: Looks looks a bit further South so far on the 00z NAM through hour 30. Blech 1 1 Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 Party at @TacomaWaWx place 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, T-Town said: Calm before the storm. Good sunset view on the other side of town as well. 2 1 Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 NAM says north sounders are out of luck 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 NAM looks like a good run for PDX. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
runninthruda206 Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, Acer said: NAM says north sounders are out of luck D**n. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, Acer said: NAM says north sounders are out of luck A real shame this whole thing is turning into a massive flop up here. 2 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 Last 3 runs of the NAM. Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OysterPrintout Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 It's 2021. Up is down south is the new north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said: Last 3 runs of the NAM. I like the middle run the best. 3 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 QPF looks fairly low though. Perhaps the storm won’t be as dynamic as previously thought. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said: It's 2021. Up is down south is the new north. It’s just wrong, I tell you. 1 It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, wxmet said: QPF looks fairly low though. Perhaps the storm won’t be as dynamic as previously thought. Meh I don’t really ever trust the NAM. Has probably been the worst model in terms of consistency the last few days. Only time I’ve ever seen it do good was that wind event last month. Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 4 minutes ago, MossMan said: I like the middle run the best. That was the 18Z NAM... the best model run of the best model! 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 Looks like a good track for "Josh the Snowman". Stay tuned for news at 11. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 NAM says this is sleet but that looks pretty much like a snow sounding to me. Barely a warm nose on this run. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 The main good models show decent snow south of Seattle. Really trust those over any other model. Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, nwsnow said: NAM says this is sleet but that looks pretty much like a snow sounding to me. Barely a warm nose on this run. Snow with that warm at 850? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 Today has been something. I’m getting discouraged. And this morning I was elated. Ugh 2 Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 Way less dynamic. Low level cold way further south. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, GobBluth said: Snow with that warm at 850? Look closely, the 0c like is at an angle on these soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 3km NAM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 Anyone have a GFSv16 snow map? Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 The only hope I am hanging onto at the moment is that this is really reminding me of February 2011...We were only supposed to get table scraps up here due to the low going too far south...Well it jogged a fair amount north at the last minute and I’m not sure if it was a deformation zone or what but we ended up getting nuked with snow that was NOT Predicted up here. Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IceKing Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 heard about the latest run. collapsed to my knees 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 5 minutes ago, nwsnow said: NAM says this is sleet but that looks pretty much like a snow sounding to me. Barely a warm nose on this run. The depth of the melting layer is 100mb. I think sleet is a pretty good bet based on this sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, nwsnow said: Look closely, the 0c like is at an angle on these soundings. I didn't catch that. Thanks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, MossMan said: The only hope I am hanging onto at the moment is that this is really reminding me of February 2011...We were only supposed to get table scraps up here due to the low going too far south...Well it jogged a fair amount north at the last minute and I’m not sure if it was a deformation zone or what but we ended up getting nuked with snow that was NOT Predicted up here. January 2012? (Or maybe it was February 2011, but I don't remember anything like that) Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, nwsnow said: 3km NAM You can clearly see the cold air damming along the east slopes of the coast range. Snow down to McMinnville, ZR/sleet almost to Corvallis. Meanwhile further east the rain line is still north of Wilsonville. 3 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, Joker said: heard about the latest run. collapsed to my knees 1 1 Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 4 minutes ago, jakerepp said: Today has been something. I’m getting discouraged. And this morning I was elated. Ugh Your north of Seattle right? System this weekend is a good bet for the northerners. Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 At hour 54 the 3K NAM has the low just west of Florence. 2 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 27˚F, which is the official forecast low for the night. Bust! 3 It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 It's one NAM run, don't worry folks. 1 1 1 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 According to surface temps on the NAM I should not drop below freezing tonight. Considering it's currently 29F, that seems unlikely, but maybe temps will warm if clouds form. 1 Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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