Winterdog Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 4 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said: I really hope this doesn't turn into just a quick overrunning event. I don't think I've ever gotten more than an inch or two in that scenario. I'm always shadowed until it gets too warm. That's what this is starting to look like to me. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, Meatyorologist said: GFS running... Highly anticipated. Incoming WSW for Greater Seattle area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 I would make a fortunate if we could bet on weather events. In this climate just hit the OVER and you will win almost every time. Snow Wizard would be down tens of thousands of dollars putting double or nothing on the next phantom arctic blast. 1 3 2 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JW8 Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 Who is Mark, and why is he talked about so much? Is he the only forecaster in PDX? Haha 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: Think DRY and WIND. C'MON!!! The lack of wind here has been amazing given the large pool of cold air nearby. Currently 31F with virtually no wind after a sunny windless 35F high here, typically such conditions would be accompanied by roaring outflow winds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Jones Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, nwsnow said: Mark going with a high of 28 on Friday. Quite remarkable for nearly mid Feb. It would be the 2nd latest sub 30 high on record for PDX, behind the 29 on 3/3/1960. Back to back subfreezing highs by this point in the season has also only happened once, in 1956. Also seems pretty rare to have a major ice storm by this point in the season, does anybody know of any examples of late season ice storms in the Portland area? Maybe BLI snowman? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew M Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, JW8 said: Who is Mark, and why is he talked about so much? Is he the only forecaster in PDX? Haha Has a fairly accurate record, usually very conservative and calls busts early on, but he is gung ho on this system for Portland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, James Jones said: It would be the 2nd latest sub 30 high on record for PDX, behind the 29 on 3/3/1960. Back to back subfreezing highs by this point in the season has also only happened once, in 1956. Also seems pretty rare to have a major ice storm by this point in the season, does anybody know of any examples of late season ice storms in the Portland area? Maybe BLI snowman? Early Feb 1996? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, VancouverIslandSouth said: The lack of wind here has been amazing given the large pool of cold air nearby. Currently 31F with virtually no wind after a sunny windless 35F high here, typically such conditions would be accompanied by roaring outflow winds. Wind should be coming soon enough. It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, GobBluth said: Early Feb 1996? Yeah that was about the 3rd though I think. Pretty significant icing event. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JW8 Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, Andrew M said: Has a fairly accurate record, usually very conservative and calls busts early on, but he is gung ho on this system for Portland. Got it, makes sense. Just seems like there's a lot put in to his statements on here. Kinda like looking at only one model, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, JW8 said: Who is Mark, and why is he talked about so much? Is he the only forecaster in PDX? Haha Mark Nelsen, well qualified and regarded met around here with a good track record. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 Trending slightly south? Let's hear the predictions ppl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 Me thinks the 00z will be a move south, given all other guidance shifting south so far this evening. At any rate, the upcoming system is looking much weaker out over the Pacific at hour 12. Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 5 minutes ago, JW8 said: Who is Mark, and why is he talked about so much? Is he the only forecaster in PDX? Haha The local met that men want to be and women want to be with. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, JW8 said: Got it, makes sense. Just seems like there's a lot put in to his statements on here. Kinda like looking at only one model, IMO. You can feel free to check out the Zaffino, Salesky, Shelby or Hill models. You will quickly find they are basically all just different versions of the NAM though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 Yeah Mark is really #1 in PDX. Total geek like all of us too, not a newscaster reading a script, he legitimately loves weather. 2 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 5 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said: The lack of wind here has been amazing given the large pool of cold air nearby. Currently 31F with virtually no wind after a sunny windless 35F high here, typically such conditions would be accompanied by roaring outflow winds. Looking like it’s friday night or bust here. The southerly trend tonight is undeniable 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Jones Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Yeah that was about the 3rd though I think. Pretty significant icing event. Yeah, but of course climo changes rapidly in February. Huge difference between the first few days of the month and even a week or two later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: Wind should be coming soon enough. Even tomorrow afternoon it's going to struggle against the predominantly onshore flow aloft. But it should pickup a little as the low approaches the coast. I'm happy with weak outflow winds, hasn't affected our ability to cool off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 Fizzle out We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 10, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 7 minutes ago, James Jones said: It would be the 2nd latest sub 30 high on record for PDX, behind the 29 on 3/3/1960. Back to back subfreezing highs by this point in the season has also only happened once, in 1956. Also seems pretty rare to have a major ice storm by this point in the season, does anybody know of any examples of late season ice storms in the Portland area? Maybe BLI snowman? Yes, the 1960 event you mentioned is the latest in "modern times" with 1/4-1/2" ice accumulations following the snow. Another big late one was 2/22/1957. Portland had an inch of snow before switching to ZR and then got about 3/4" of ice. The valley had a big ice storm with 1-2". 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, Jesse said: You can feel free to check out the Zaffino, Salesky, Shelby or Hill models. You will quickly find they are basically all just different versions of the NAM though. If I had to pick a #2 I would pick Zaffino. I think if anything he has a cold bias, he knows what brings in the eyeballs. Salesky pretty much goes with the warmest, most boring forecast he can make, so he is probably pretty high up there in terms of accuracy. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JW8 Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Yeah Mark is really #1 in PDX. Total geek like all of us too, not a newscaster reading a script, he legitimately loves weather. Makes sense. Not trying to discredit the guy. It's just different in the Seattle area- many more mets I trust really know their stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 Slight shift South . . . 1 2 Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 10, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Yeah Mark is really #1 in PDX. Total geek like all of us too, not a newscaster reading a script, he legitimately loves weather. Steve Pierce is an affable weenie as well. He used to be one of us! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: Fizzle out No need to get your plow. Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: If I had to pick a #2 I would pick Zaffino. I think if anything he has a cold bias, he knows what brings in the eyeballs. Salesky pretty much goes with the warmest, most boring forecast he can make, so he is probably pretty high up there in terms of accuracy. I like Sussman as well tbh. Zaffino actually used to be a neighbor of ours— sometimes I still rail on the poor guy for his coating to an inch forecast on 1/10/17 lol 2 1 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 Upper level low appears weaker so a southern shift is expected. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 Day 1 (Past 4 runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 The strength is going to be the problem. 1 1 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 QPF amounts are much lighter compared to 18z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 Sad Panda 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 FWIW, it seems slightly weaker, so that's why it's sliding slight south. Note that this is something the 18z Euro picked up on earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 We only got two or three snow storms this weekend. Already lost the first one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 10, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, wxmet said: QPF amounts are much lighter compared to 18z. Weaker, more southern low, so it comes with the package. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 I'm calling it now. This first low will be a non event north of Olympia. We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 Day 2 (Past 4 runs) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 Yikes. Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prairiedog Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 14 minutes ago, JW8 said: Who is Mark, and why is he talked about so much? Is he the only forecaster in PDX? Haha He understands the many microclimates of this area and he's pretty savey rooting out hype from fiction or is it truth from fact. You get the point. He is indeed conservative and has a wam bias but it has served him well forecasting cold and snow in our area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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