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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


BLI snowman

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4 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

I really hope this doesn't turn into just a quick overrunning event. I don't think I've ever gotten more than an inch or two in that scenario. I'm always shadowed until it gets too warm.

That's what this is starting to look like to me.

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I would make a fortunate if we could bet on weather events. In this climate just hit the OVER and you will win almost every time. 

Snow Wizard would be down tens of thousands of dollars putting double or nothing on the next phantom arctic blast. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Think DRY and WIND. C'MON!!!

The lack of wind here has been amazing given the large pool of cold air nearby. Currently 31F with virtually no wind after a sunny windless 35F high here, typically such conditions would be accompanied by roaring outflow winds.

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2 minutes ago, nwsnow said:

Mark going with a high of 28 on Friday. Quite remarkable for nearly mid Feb.

image.thumb.png.fb1aa6a3a547b52f7976eeafa169737b.png

It would be the 2nd latest sub 30 high on record for PDX, behind the 29 on 3/3/1960. Back to back subfreezing highs by this point in the season has also only happened once, in 1956.

Also seems pretty rare to have a major ice storm by this point in the season, does anybody know of any examples of late season ice storms in the Portland area? Maybe BLI snowman?

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Just now, James Jones said:

It would be the 2nd latest sub 30 high on record for PDX, behind the 29 on 3/3/1960. Back to back subfreezing highs by this point in the season has also only happened once, in 1956.

Also seems pretty rare to have a major ice storm by this point in the season, does anybody know of any examples of late season ice storms in the Portland area? Maybe BLI snowman?

Early Feb 1996?

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1 minute ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

The lack of wind here has been amazing given the large pool of cold air nearby. Currently 31F with virtually no wind after a sunny windless 35F high here, typically such conditions would be accompanied by roaring outflow winds.

Wind should be coming soon enough.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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Just now, GobBluth said:

Early Feb 1996?

Yeah that was about the 3rd though I think. Pretty significant icing event. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, Andrew M said:

Has a fairly accurate record, usually very conservative and calls busts early on, but he is gung ho on this system for Portland.

 

Got it, makes sense. Just seems like there's a lot put in to his statements on here. Kinda like looking at only one model, IMO.

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Me thinks the 00z will be a move south, given all other guidance shifting south so far this evening. At any rate, the upcoming system is looking much weaker out over the Pacific at hour 12.

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 minute ago, JW8 said:

Got it, makes sense. Just seems like there's a lot put in to his statements on here. Kinda like looking at only one model, IMO.

You can feel free to check out the Zaffino, Salesky, Shelby or Hill models. You will quickly find they are basically all just different versions of the NAM though.

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Yeah Mark is really #1 in PDX. Total geek like all of us too, not a newscaster reading a script, he legitimately loves weather. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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5 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

The lack of wind here has been amazing given the large pool of cold air nearby. Currently 31F with virtually no wind after a sunny windless 35F high here, typically such conditions would be accompanied by roaring outflow winds.

Looking like it’s friday night or bust here. The southerly trend tonight is undeniable

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1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Wind should be coming soon enough.

Even tomorrow afternoon it's going to struggle against the predominantly onshore flow aloft. But it should pickup a little as the low approaches the coast. I'm happy with weak outflow winds, hasn't affected our ability to cool off.

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7 minutes ago, James Jones said:

It would be the 2nd latest sub 30 high on record for PDX, behind the 29 on 3/3/1960. Back to back subfreezing highs by this point in the season has also only happened once, in 1956.

Also seems pretty rare to have a major ice storm by this point in the season, does anybody know of any examples of late season ice storms in the Portland area? Maybe BLI snowman?

Yes, the 1960 event you mentioned is the latest in "modern times" with 1/4-1/2" ice accumulations following the snow.

Another big late one was 2/22/1957. Portland had an inch of snow before switching to ZR and then got about 3/4" of ice. The valley had a big ice storm with 1-2".

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1 minute ago, Jesse said:

You can feel free to check out the Zaffino, Salesky, Shelby or Hill models. You will quickly find they are basically all just different versions of the NAM though.

If I had to pick a #2 I would pick Zaffino. I think if anything he has a cold bias, he knows what brings in the eyeballs. 

Salesky pretty much goes with the warmest, most boring forecast he can make, so he is probably pretty high up there in terms of accuracy. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah Mark is really #1 in PDX. Total geek like all of us too, not a newscaster reading a script, he legitimately loves weather. 

Makes sense. Not trying to discredit the guy. It's just different in the Seattle area- many more mets I trust really know their stuff.

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

If I had to pick a #2 I would pick Zaffino. I think if anything he has a cold bias, he knows what brings in the eyeballs. 

Salesky pretty much goes with the warmest, most boring forecast he can make, so he is probably pretty high up there in terms of accuracy. 

I like Sussman as well tbh. Zaffino actually used to be a neighbor of ours— sometimes I still rail on the poor guy for his coating to an inch forecast on 1/10/17 lol

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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14 minutes ago, JW8 said:

Who is Mark, and why is he talked about so much? Is he the only forecaster in PDX? Haha

He understands the many microclimates of this area and he's pretty savey rooting out hype from fiction or is it truth from fact.  You get the point.  He is indeed conservative and has a wam bias but it has served him well forecasting cold and snow in our area. 

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