February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[bainbridgekid]

19 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 5 But of course the base of the ridge isn't favorable....

That block is simultaneously too far West and too far East. We really can't win!

[TacomaWaWx]

I’m going to wait atleast 2-3 weeks before canceling winter. Definitely am feeling less enthusiastic about it at this point. Still can’t see what’ll happen in the second half of this month quite yet maybe we will get lucky and get some late February 2011/2018 action. 

[OysterPrintout]

For fun you hit like day 6 on the models then flip through the prior runs and watch the block change for your own personal and free Rorschach tests

[snow drift]

1 minute ago, GeorgeWx said:

Ecmwf still shows a big Nor’easter during the SuperBowl. They might not be able to watch their favorite son try and win his 7th Super Bowl.

They've got another gnarly looking storm waiting in the wings.

[Gradient Keeper]

Onto 12z!

[snow drift]

2 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

That block is simultaneously too far West and too far East. We really can't win!

We can't win. You have to thread the needle to get anything.

[snow drift]

9 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yup it’s about to get chilly in a lot of places starting in 4-5 days. That’s an effective pattern for mobile polar high production. 

It definitely looks a little bit nippy in places.

[GHweatherChris]

28 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Primus sucks!

 

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, Snowdrift said:

They've got another gnarly looking storm waiting in the wings.

I’m skeptical about it..nor’easters don’t usually form on the leading edge of arctic blasts, though there are exceptions like Feb 2015. Typically they occur after the blocking has peaked/during the polar high descent, with the cold already well entrenched if not retreating.

[Front Ranger]

16 minutes ago, Snowdrift said:

That Greenland block is really something.

Phil says it's good!!!

[Deweydog]

The biggest takeaway???

Maybe steroidal NAO blocks aren’t exactly a godsend.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Phil says it's good!!!

It’s better than the alternative.

Invert the current pattern in your mind’s eye and see if you like the picture (hint: there’d be a lot of warm anomalies in W-Canada). 

[Front Ranger]

13 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 7 .... and yeah. Make sure you have a new, clean barf bag nearby.

 

COLD in Alaska.

[TacomaWaWx]

We’ve had snow and decent cold the last 2 marches in a row. Maybe this year will make it 3 in a row? 

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

It’s better than the alternative.

Invert the current pattern in your mind’s eye and see if you like the picture (hint: there’d be a lot of warm anomalies in W-Canada). 

I like blocking. Especially well-placed.

And the models are an absolute mess right now. Zero consistency.

[AbbyJr]

37 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The day 4 surface pressure configuration over the GOA on this run is worlds better than last night's day 5 on the ECMWF.  Amazing to see that kind of change at such close range.

I'm not sure how one can find anything positive about the 00Z Euro. West Coast ridge and Vortex in Alaska.

Not at all what we need for arctic air to drop into the PNW.

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I like blocking. Especially well-placed.

And the models are an absolute mess right now. Zero consistency.

Reverse this pattern and you’re back in El Niño.

-NAO is doing all it can to help. Building the SW-Canada cold pool and everything. Problem is the Pacific isn’t pulling its weight. And it hasn’t pulled its weight at all this winter. 

[bainbridgekid]

Always interesting how extreme 850mb cold can persist even as 500mb heights rise to above average. You'd never guess these two maps are for the same time on the same model

 

 

[Front Ranger]

19 minutes ago, Phil said:

Reverse this pattern and you’re back in El Niño.

-NAO is doing all it can to help. Building the SW-Canada cold pool and everything. Problem is the Pacific isn’t pulling its weight. And it hasn’t pulled its weight at all this winter. 

Fact remains, for the western US, the Pacific matters a whole lot more.

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Fact remains, for the western US, the Pacific matters a whole lot more.

Isn’t that what I just said?

[Phil]

For anyone who needs a snow fix.

 

[snow drift]

35 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

We’ve had snow and decent cold the last 2 marches in a row. Maybe this year will make it 3 in a row? 

I don't have beef with February or March. I have no complaints. The last 40 years have been superb. They've overachieved. Now January is a whole different story.

[snow drift]

42 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

The biggest takeaway???

Maybe steroidal NAO blocks aren’t exactly a godsend.

The NAO block, also known as Barry Bonds, is all natural. He does a few push ups, and he eats three squares a day.

[Deweydog]

9 minutes ago, Snowdrift said:

The NAO block, also known as Barry Bonds, is all natural. He does a few push ups, and he eats three squares a day.

You just watch... A few years from now it’ll totally be outed by Jose Canseco.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sometimes we get knocked down, but we will stand again. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Good night, no night shift for me, 

[Gradient Keeper]

12 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

You just watch... A few years from now it’ll totally be outed by Jose Canseco.

https://tenor.com/view/canseco-ball-head-baseball-homerun-gif-13162915

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Sometimes we get knocked down, but we will stand again. 

 

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

It’s better than the alternative.

Invert the current pattern in your mind’s eye and see if you like the picture (hint: there’d be a lot of warm anomalies in W-Canada). 

Hasn’t that Greenland block been going strong for awhile now?

[snow drift]

I blame the Aleutian Low and Don King. Those S.O.B.s are behind everything. It's a C-O-N-spiracy.

 

[smerfylicious]

Well it's nice at least to see snowfall and cold records falling across the US. Maybe we'll get our turn next year

[Link]

7 hours ago, JW8 said:

So much info to digest here. Most of it doesn't sound great for the PNW to me, but maybe Phil (and others) can give us their perspective. 

 

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

Thanks but don't post very often if you want actual insights or you'll be hitting a brick wall and go crazy. This place is the Reddit of weather if you get my drift and no which 'invisible lines' not to cross.   

[Tyler Mode]

Is this for real?  The long range could be near 50, or near 30 with snow...I don't think I've ever seen this much disagreement.

[TT-SEA]

SEA is already at 25% of the normal rainfall for the entire month of February.      Its been a wet year so far... similar to the start of last year.

[Phil]

Weird storm. Going on 54hrs straight of snow/ice and there’s only 5.8” on the ground. Tho there was some big time compaction yesterday AM thanks to IP/ZR.

[Phil]

33 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

Is this for real?  The long range could be near 50, or near 30 with snow...I don't think I've ever seen this much disagreement.

Complicated, unstable pattern for sure. Yet another case where very subtle changes can/will have major implications.

[TT-SEA]

No groundhog shadow here today! 

[Phil]

Goofus is running.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

SEA is already at 25% of the normal rainfall for the entire month of February.      Its been a wet year so far... similar to the start of last year.

Haha I knew we’d see a post like this from you!

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Haha I knew we’d see a post like this from you!

Noteworthy weather to report!