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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


BLI snowman

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4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

 

Something interesting there is how few ensemble members show any precip making it to Seattle at the end of the week. Very good agreement on that offshore energy remaining pretty far suppressed, as you would expect with the PV so close.

Yeah I'm still expecting some kind of pull back on bringing the PV so close but it is pretty interesting that all the models again went colder. I'm still thinking those lows come up further north than modeled and the precip shield will extend further north too. Obviously this far out it is probably futile trying to guess where that energy goes but hopefully we get our first real event since 1/10/17 in the PDX metro.

 

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We could potentially be heading towards dangerous nighttime lows next week. And because of the warm winter we've had so far, I'd imagine not many people are doing enough to protect their homes from the subfreezing cold. So remember to drain and protect the pipes. Could be quite costly if one of those things burst. 

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Holy crap that was a cold GEM run!  Even the GFS spit out a day with a 30 degree high and 8 consecutive highs below 40.  If the GEM were to verify temperature wise I wouldn't even be upset if we got little or no snow.  It would be flat out historic.  That having been said I really want snow though!

Going to be an interesting 10 days coming up.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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5 minutes ago, nwsnow said:

Yeah I'm still expecting some kind of pull back on bringing the PV so close but it is pretty interesting that all the models again went colder. I'm still thinking those lows come up further north than modeled and the precip shield will extend further north too. Obviously this far out it is probably futile trying to guess where that energy goes but hopefully we get our first real event since 1/10/17 in the PDX metro.

 

How about Jim Cantore standing on 82nd and Foster, snowing heavy, he hears a clap of thunder, and freaks out on the air?

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1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

image.gif.a3eea60a7d8554e18183d0903e028e39.gif

Nope, if there is none to very minimal snow cover here it will be a worthless wasted airmass.  Even a great overrunning event at the end will not change my mind.  Cold temp stats are nothing but a way to be able to live in the past and use Feb 2021 as an ANALog.  We need to live in the now!!

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Pretty stunning ensemble mean tonight.  Much colder than previous runs.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

Nope, if there is none to very minimal snow cover here it will be a worthless wasted airmass.  Even a great overrunning event at the end will not change my mind.  Cold temp stats are nothing but a way to be able to live in the past and use Feb 2021 as an ANALog.  We need to live in the now!!

How the F*** is it possible that you got more surly and Tim became modestly "tolerable"?

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Euro still not showing much CZ snow tomorrow night into Monday morning unfortunately. Shows a little along the Snohomish/Skagit County line though. Randy!

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, JBolin said:

How the F*** is it possible that you got more surly and Tim became modestly "tolerable"?

How do you all of a sudden seem like you are new here?  You are not understanding the process of which I am going through, Tim does, hopefully he doesn't ruin it for me. 

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Just now, hawkstwelve said:

It would be nice if the WB maps would update. Good grief.

Glad this will be the last month I'm paying for this site. Might look elsewhere next season.

weathermodels loading the Euro output pretty slow as well but that always seems to be the case

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2 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

How do you all of a sudden seem like you are new here?  You are not understanding the process of which I am going through, Tim does, hopefully he doesn't ruin it for me. 

Well if the "process" you're going through is mediocrity I have no sympathy for you, if it's something "else" then you have my sincere apology. 

Side note, I'm not new here, been a member/lurker for over a decade.

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12 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

How do you all of a sudden seem like you are new here?  You are not understanding the process of which I am going through, Tim does, hopefully he doesn't ruin it for me. 

The process you are going through of incessant negativity and reverse psychology get old pretty quickly in a situation like this when people are starting to feel reasonably excited.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, JBolin said:

Well if the "process" you're going through is mediocrity I have no sympathy for you, if it's something "else" then you have my sincere apology. 

Side note, I'm not new here, been a member/lurker for over a decade.

It is the latter, I accept your apology 😁!!

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Just now, bainbridgekid said:

The process you are going through of incessant negativity and reverse psychology get old pretty quickly in a situation like this.l when people are starting to feel pretty excited.

The sickening optimism is the exact same thing, noone knows what will happen until it does.  So what if some of us are skeptical (I am not the only one) but yet hopeful, we all can say what we want without harming others, you know what I want to happen.  Doesn't mean it will happen, sorry my rabbits foot bothers you.

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