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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


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  • Longtimer
13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Mossman just loves snow and part of his snow loving ritual is making unnecessary preparations. Helps get him excited probably. Nothing wrong with that. You don’t want to know what gets me excited. 

For me like I said it all stems from the November 2006 event and working at the large senior community. No power for a week, people were using snowmobiles to get around, more of them than vehicles on the road. Roads closed everywhere due to downed trees. The fuel truck could not get to work to refill the very large generator that ran all of nursing and assisted living, I had to drive the work tractor to the fire station down the road and roll a barrel of diesel fuel they had into the bucket and take it back to work so we could keep functioning. Otherwise we were going to have to start evacuating the place. It was truly surreal, we were basically cut off from the outside world that week. I was not prepared, and like I said had to rob gas from my mower, etc to keep enough gas in my truck to get and from work. Added stress we did not need, if I had a full tank of gas and the senior community had a reserve of diesel fuel it would have been much easier. We all learned from those mistakes and it has stayed with me! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Mossman just loves snow and part of his snow loving ritual is making unnecessary preparations. Helps get him excited probably. Nothing wrong with that. You don’t want to know what gets me excited. 

ZONAL FLOW

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13 minutes ago, Kayla said:

I honestly feel really bad for the kids. Buses run until -40F and recess isn't indoors until -10F.

Gotta be a hardy kid living here!

Gotta start somewhere! What a better time to start training them the cold than pre-school in subzero temps.  😂 

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Reading the lead up to the 2/11/19 event now... the ECMWF was causing concerns with the Oregon folks with its northward shift and everyone was saying the GFS looked too dry.    History is repeating itself.

Yeah last nights super snowy ECMWF run for PDX was pretty ominous for down here. Had 2/19 deja vu.

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I mean, I know there is doom and gloom because this forum is for the entire PNW, but, as someone who lives just east of Seattle I can say I'm super stoked for the upcoming potential this week. I'm sorry that some of the more recent models have pushed the warm air into Oregon. But I'm pretty excited for those on the forum who live in Washington.  

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--------------------

Sean Nyberg

Be kind.

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   T:   @SeanNyberg

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1 minute ago, SeanNyberg said:

I mean, I know there is doom and gloom because this forum is for the entire PNW, but, as someone who lives just east of Seattle I can say I'm super stoked for the upcoming potential this week. I'm sorry that some of the more recent models have pushed the warm air into Oregon. But I'm pretty excited for those on the forum who live in Washington.  

It does pay to live up there it seems.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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2 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

I mean, I know there is doom and gloom because this forum is for the entire PNW, but, as someone who lives just east of Seattle I can say I'm super stoked for the upcoming potential this week. I'm sorry that some of the more recent models have pushed the warm air into Oregon. But I'm pretty excited for those on the forum who live in Washington.  

Odds are pretty good for something up here in western WA...OR still has a chance for it to end up ok wouldn’t take much to be good down there but the odds are definitely lower. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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  • Longtimer
2 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

I mean, I know there is doom and gloom because this forum is for the entire PNW, but, as someone who lives just east of Seattle I can say I'm super stoked for the upcoming potential this week. I'm sorry that some of the more recent models have pushed the warm air into Oregon. But I'm pretty excited for those on the forum who live in Washington.  

Unfortunately it’s very possible your area will be screwed too. Once this trend gets going it can be a death knell for cold/snow in the lowlands. That’s why I have been warning about GFS and EURO solutions that showed 2-3’ of snow where I live. That southern stream gaining strength like what the EURO shows could end up great but it’s asking for trouble. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

I mean, I know there is doom and gloom because this forum is for the entire PNW, but, as someone who lives just east of Seattle I can say I'm super stoked for the upcoming potential this week. I'm sorry that some of the more recent models have pushed the warm air into Oregon. But I'm pretty excited for those on the forum who live in Washington.  

The next few model runs may dampen your excitement.  The northerly trend may just continue putting us all out of range.  

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5 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

How much did you get in 2016/2017?

I live in a decently high elevation so I don’t think it counts, but it was around 23”. 

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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5 minutes ago, Acer said:

The next few model runs may dampen your excitement.  The northerly trend may just continue putting us all out of range.  

Sure, it could.

But, to be honest, I have two parents who are 70 years old, my Dad has stage four lung cancer and they have their second dose of Pfizer vaccine in 10 days. So, have I loved snow in the PNW my entire life, from a young boy staring at the street light in Issaquah to an adult man staring at the street light in Bellevue, yes. Would I prefer to have this thing bust and keep the vaccine distribution running smoothly for my folks and the rest of the community, yes.

So, I am happy either way!

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--------------------

Sean Nyberg

Be kind.

   IG: @SeanNyberg

   T:   @SeanNyberg

   Facebook: Sean Nyberg

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10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Unfortunately it’s very possible your area will be screwed too. Once this trend gets going it can be a death knell for cold/snow in the lowlands. That’s why I have been warning about GFS and EURO solutions that showed 2-3’ of snow where I live. That southern stream gaining strength like what the EURO shows could end up great but it’s asking for trouble. 

I’d say tonight’s 0z is going to be quite critical - perhaps all models runs at this point are. But if tonight’s run continues to go north, even in the slightest, I’d be very concern from Seattle/Tacoma- south. 

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37 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

image.thumb.png.d1944411600d78a8c0cc295a51e3e72d.png

Honestly, this is nothing to complain about. If I had a time machine and could post it here two weeks ago, everyone would be giddy with excitement. The odds were always against the insanely cold and/or snowy solutions verifying.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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Still reading the 2/11/19 lead up... Jim was cheerleading strongly until the evening of 2/10 and then threw in the towel and gave up and said he was a "terrible mood" because everything just fell apart at the last minute.    24 hours later he was very happy again.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Still reading the 2/11/19 lead up... Jim was cheerleading strongly until the evening of 2/10 and then threw in the towel and gave up and said he was a "terrible mood" because everything just fell apart at the last minute.    24 hours later he was very happy again.  

Terrible mood... sounds like me right now 

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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3KM NAM bullseyes Everett with 3" of snow tonight. Bit of a shift South from the 12z.

 

sn10_acc.us_nw (24).png

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

2021-22: 17.75"

-12/24: 0.5"

-12/26: 8.5"

-12/27: 1.5"

-12/29-30: 4"

-1/2: 2"

-1/5: 0.5"

-2/22: 0.25"

-2/24: 0.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

2020-21: 14.5”

 

 

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Longtime lurker and lifelong (over 50 years) resident of KVUO (in honor of the Flowman😆).  I appreciate the insight and knowledge that so many of you have.  I am a big weenie when it comes to cold and snow; but a realist in terms of the ‘needle getting threaded’ in the region that I/we live.  I have been to many areas of the US on business and minus the clouds and rain , which sometimes is a drag, we win! My profile pic is real- no filters, of Mt Hood on the approach to Portland.  How many people in the country can travel to 4 or 5 different and diverse weather and geographical areas with a couple hour drive.

I would never want to shovel snow for three months in a row; it would take the excitement out of the possibilities.  Based on the 100 pages on this thread, many of you are similar in that belief, I think.  Still a lot of time to get to a desirable outcome.  I root for the Canadian FTW- not realistic, but why not us?  Nothing wrong with cheering for an outcome.

Appreciate the Forum Ifred! I have laughed my head off and almost cried in the same day.  

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Rod Hill just updated his forecast on his website portlandweather.com

He's going with highs of 35/33/32 for PDX Thu-Sat.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy and dry overnight with freezing temps. 

Thursday: Becoming cloudy, an increasing chance of afternoon flurries or light snow. Gusty east winds. 

Thursday Night: Snow or flurries will be likely. Accumulations will be possible but are uncertain at this time. Gusty east winds blow. 

Friday: Cloudy, occasional snow or flurries with possible accumulations. Gusty east winds continue to blow. 

Friday Night: Cloudy, snow showers , gusty east winds. 

Saturday: Likely snow at times with a good chance of accumulation at all elevations, gusty east winds continue to blow. 

Saturday Night: Snow rates pick up during the evening as a front tries to push inland. Weather models show 4" or more of possible accumulation into Sunday morning. 

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I woke up 6 AM and my internet was down, so I went back to sleep. Now I've looked at all 12z models and my concern from last night seems to have been warranted. I see an unfortunate trend to cut off the arctic trough north of us as it elongates from east to west rather than digging down over us. Warm front is too far north. We better hope 00z models revert back away from this, or this will become a Washington only event if not even further north closer to Everett to Omak. We are nearing that 72 hour window where models will lock in. We better hope, pray, chant, and whatever else that the GFS/GEFS or GEFS/GEM blend is leading the way. If not, Winter is likely over folks for lowland snow.
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11 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Part of me was more excited for the model runs showing 850s below -20C. We get snow here all the time. It’s been a long time since we’ve seen that type of airmass 

I would actually trade in a lot less snow for more airmass tbh. We’re very close.

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5 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

Sure, it could.

But, to be honest, I have two parents who are 70 years old, my Dad has stage four lung cancer and they have their second dose of Pfizer vaccine in 10 days. So, have I loved snow in the PNW my entire life, from a young boy staring at the street light in Issaquah to an adult man staring at the street light in Bellevue, yes. Would I prefer to have this thing bust and keep the vaccine distribution running smoothly for my folks and the rest of the community, yes.

So, I am happy either way!

I'm sorry to hear your dad has lung cancer.  We just recently lost a good friend to covid and I and my wife, both in our 70's have so far been unable to even get scheduled for vaccines.  I hope your parents are able to get their 2nd vaccine as planned.  Like you I've been a snow freak as long as I can remember but I know in the big picture the importance of snow is quite far down the list.  Here's hoping for some snow and also timely vaccines for your parents.

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  • Longtimer
11 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Terrible mood... sounds like me right now 

Relax kid. You have been around for a couple of years now. You know that shifts like this in models aren't unusual. You can't look at each run as reality. Just one possible solution out of thousands of small variations at this range still. Try not to get too invested. 

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1 minute ago, FroYoBro said:

Relax kid. You have been around for a couple of years now. You know that shifts like this in models aren't unusual. You can't look at each run as reality. Just one possible solution out of thousands of small variations at this range still. Try not to get too invested. 

Especially given how volatile the models have been this winter. Would have been nice if they had settled down into a general trend today, but not really a surprise they haven’t.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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NAM is more south so.... Who knows? 🙃

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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7 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Relax kid. You have been around for a couple of years now. You know that shifts like this in models aren't unusual. You can't look at each run as reality. Just one possible solution out of thousands of small variations at this range still. Try not to get too invested. 

My thoughts exactly.  Those of us who are older have watched this movie before.

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  • Longtimer

Imagine being married to me... 😢

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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9 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

 

 

I'm in the pink!

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.24 (2010)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 5.8"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5"

2021-22: 21.75" (12/24: Tr, 12/25: 5", 12/26: 3", 12/27: 1.5", 12/28: Tr, 12/29: 1", 12/30: 3", 1/5: 2.5", 1/6: 1", 2/2: Tr, 2/21: 1.5", 2/22: 0.75", 2/23: 1.5", 2/24: 1")

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