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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


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Well none of the runs tonight sucked. At first I thought the EURO was going to blow for points south of PDX, but it ended up delivering the goods. Even EUG ends up with 6-10" by the end of this run. I would gladly pick up what the EURO is putting down. Will be interesting to see how this plays out. I'm still intrigued by the GEM/UKMET/ICON suite. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I quite frankly can't believe where the ECMWF went compared to the other models.  With the three very different solutions on the GEM, GFS, and ECMWF all are very cold for Seattle (GEM insanely cold) and the ECMWF brings a lot of snow.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I think most are worried about everything trending too far north and a January 2011 redux. I actually feel like we’re in a good spot and it’ll work out for everyone but who knows. I’m feeling pretty confident about something good happening though. 

I don't think too far north is much of a threat given the GEM and GFS.  

Dry and cold or snowy and cold... warm and rainy seems like its a very remote possibility over the next 10 days

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Dude... the ECMWF shows the historic snow starting in just 5 days.   Its not that far from happening.   

Bruh, thats not close to the believable range, especially when we could very easily be pulling out huge forks somewhere between 6 and 12 hours from now.  

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I quite frankly can't believe where the ECMWF went compared to the other models.  With the three very different solutions on the GEM, GFS, and ECMWF all are very cold for Seattle (GEM insanely cold) and the ECMWF brings a lot of snow.

Kid in a candy store, right?

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Seattle is in a great spot. Pretty much a lock for cold there. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I don't think too far north is much of a threat given the GEM and GFS.  

Dry and cold or snowy and cold... warm and rainy seems like its a very remote possibility over the next 10 days

It'll be interesting to see where the gfs and the gem go in the coming days.

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I love what we are seeing, but I am very cautious and rather nervous with the potential for the arctic trough to cut off to our north and then the warm front position becomes a concern. Even though the 00z EURO Op was the only model or ensembles thus far showing that. We just need a few more runs to iron out a few details in my opinion.
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It seems all of the models keep it cold for a long time also.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

I don't think too far north is much of threat given the GEM and GFS.  

Dry and cold or snowy and cold... warm and rainy seems like its a very remote possibility over the next 10 days

I agree. I am just saying what the fears are here. There’s always a small chance things completely bust...but I think that things look really good right now wether it be cold and dry with some snow or super snowy...like you said its almost within 100 hours at this point really looking good. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Certainly not a slam dunk here about 40 miles south of PDX, probably about a 50/50 chance we get cold/snowy. I'm really glad I have not emotionally invested in this, high bust potential south of Seattle. Just hoping for a giant maritime trough in March. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, DJ Droppin said:
I love what we are seeing, but I am very cautious and rather nervous with the potential for the arctic trough to cut off to our north and then the warm front position becomes a concern. Even though the 00z EURO Op was the only model or ensembles thus far showing that. We just need a few more runs to iron out a few details in my opinion.

Yeah it feels like playing a bit with fire there. Lot more twists and turns with future runs to keep us entertained and sleep deprived though.

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3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:
I love what we are seeing, but I am very cautious and rather nervous with the potential for the arctic trough to cut off to our north and then the warm front position becomes a concern. Even though the 00z EURO Op was the only model or ensembles thus far showing that. We just need a few more runs to iron out a few details in my opinion.

I think we’ve got the gorge to keep things in the running for us— further south could be an issue though.

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  • Snow 1

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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27 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

To illustrate the incredible potential and uncertainty inherent in this pattern, the Euro gives Portland 22 inches of snow through hour 180 and the GFS gives them . . . 0.1"

And at the same time the GEM is historically cold.  Pretty insane.  This goes to show why having such a boat load of cold air to work is a very big deal for us.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Certainly not a slam dunk here about 40 miles south of PDX, probably about a 50/50 chance we get cold/snowy. I'm really glad I have not emotionally invested in this, high bust potential south of Seattle. Just hoping for a giant maritime trough in March. 

We're all invested in this or we wouldn't be here lol. You can't fool us.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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Just now, GHweatherChris said:

I see a few others that are now expressing a bit of doubt all of a sudden.

Well what the EURO shows is obviously to good to be true. We just don't have major regional events without major losers anymore. Everyone is suddenly worried they will be the one in the screw zone. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Hope the Santiam burn areas get the biggest storm in a while.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

We're all invested in this or we wouldn't be here lol. You can't fool us.

I'm here in July/August when there is a 90% of sunshine and mild temps.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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14 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Geez, talk about being a touch hypocritical, you basically just said my point, but more PC.  We all want a huge blast of snow and cold but you seem to agree with me that is it is far, so very far from happening at this point.

Anyone with half a brain knows it's still very far from happening. We're still 5-7 days from the potential really good stuff so no one disagrees with that part. 

The issue with your posts is they go way beyond skepticism into just incessantly repeating that most likely nothing significant will happen while adding no analysis of any actual value.

Just try to tone it down a little and maybe ask yourself "am I adding something to the discussion with this post?" before posting.

 

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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May be an image of map and text that says 'ECMWF EPS Total Snowfall [inches 10:1 Liq Equiv Ratio] Ensemble Mean Init: 00Z07FEB2021 [174] hr Valid Sun 06Z14FEB2021 MAX: 28.6 INCH 72 60 56 52 48 40 36 32 29 10 ON 25 23 21 19 17 13 13 11 8 This serviceis on data and products uropean Centre for 3 Persona range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 0.1 (pf2348MB0L111q380 weathermodels.com'

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

We're all invested in this or we wouldn't be here lol. You can't fool us.

This has a chance to be epic.  Very exciting right now. If we do get a lot of snow the temps could be ridiculously cold.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Well what the EURO shows is obviously to good to be true. We just don't have major regional events without major losers anymore. Everyone is suddenly worried they will be the one in the screw zone. 

Maybe the X factor is the size of the cold pool.  This is more old school in that regard.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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What is wrong with Weatherbell tonight?  For $25.00 a month I expect it to always be reliable.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Historical Speaking it seems unlikely for places around Seattle to get Hammered again with Snow two years later. That would give Portland the better chance imo. I say we get cold and Oregon Washington border is the bullseye.

I would be tickled to get 4 to 6 inches.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Historical Speaking it seems unlikely for places around Seattle to get Hammered again with Snow two years later. That would give Portland the better chance imo. I say we get cold and Oregon Washington border is the bullseye.

That’d be nice but unfortunately we don’t make the rules!

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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4 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Anyone with half a brain knows it's still very far from happening. We're still 5-7 days from the potential really good stuff so no one disagrees with that part. 

The issue with your posts is they go way beyond skepticism into just incessantly repeating that most likely nothing significant will happen while adding no analysis of any actual value.

Just try to tone it down a little and maybe ask yourself "am I adding something to the discussion with this post?" before posting.

 

Maybe you can just scroll on by if you do not like what you see, that seems more efficient for both of us.

Also, I add plenty when an event is occurring, if it is snowing here most if not all of you know you will score even better than me, in Washington. 

 

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The 500mb pattern on the 00z ECMWF with ridge/NAO block merger sets up on the 00z in 3.5 days, but given initialization was at 4 PM, and adjusting time ahead the pattern actually sets up in just 3 days. Arctic air moves into the Columbia Basin in 4 days. Faster with the GEM and UKMET at Day 3 and ICON just before Day 3. We're really, REALLY close to seeing this actually happen.
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