February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[TT-SEA]

[MossMan]

Big news guys!!! Temp has been stuck at 44 for the last 3 days...It’s down to 39 now!!!! WOWZERS!! Amazing! 
Oh and it’s still raining...Hasn’t stopped in I don’t know how many days now. 
.21” so far on the day. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Noteworthy weather to report!  

It's funny because I predicted this. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

9 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Big news guys!!! Temp has been stuck at 44 for the last 3 days...It’s down to 39 now!!!! WOWZERS!! Amazing! 
Oh and it’s still raining...Hasn’t stopped in I don’t know how many days now. 
.21” so far on the day. 

Conflicting reports!

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It's funny because I predicted this. 

Yeah... who would think that we would discuss the weather that is actually happening on a weather forum.   Crazy times! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

On pace for over 25" of rain this month!

 

[Blizzard777]

9 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Big news guys!!! Temp has been stuck at 44 for the last 3 days...It’s down to 39 now!!!! WOWZERS!! Amazing! 
Oh and it’s still raining...Hasn’t stopped in I don’t know how many days now. 
.21” so far on the day. 

Day 4 of wet but looks like the low finally exits tomorrow afternoon 

 

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS is not even trying to show a block early next week...

 

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS is not even trying to show a block early next week...

 

Cannot wait to hit the lake on a 80 degree day!! We need to bury this horrific winter season and never look back. 

[Blizzard777]

41*

.84 precipitation yesterday and .25 so far today.

Storm total since Friday 1.56

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

On pace for over 25" of rain this month!

 

SEA came out of the block running hard in January and it ended up being the 7th wettest January in history there.     

The record for February at SEA is 9.11 inches in 1961.     Well on our way already!  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

SEA came out of the block running hard in January and it ended up being the 7th wettest January in history there.     

The record for February at SEA is 9.11 inches in 1961.     Well on our way already!  

Seattle's wettest February would be right about average for here. 

You know D**n well the models are pretty dry for the first half of the month. 

[SalemDuck]

Really funky pattern on the GFS after day 4

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Seattle's wettest February would be right about average for here. 

Fascinating.    

[SalemDuck]

ICON gets really close to delivering

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Very interesting GFS run. Positive trends!

[ShawniganLake]

Just an ungodly blow torch of a month across all of Canada in January. Unprecedented warmth. Look at those +15F anomalies 

 

 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You know D**n well the models are pretty dry for the first half of the month. 

Lots of model volatility... could end up being wet!   

All I can report is that we are well on our way at this point. 

[GHweatherChris]

21 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

On pace for over 25" of rain this month!

 

On pace for over 35" here.

[SalemDuck]

On the GFS at day 9 the vortex over Alaska starts diving south

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Lots of model volatility... could end up being wet!   

All I can report is that we are well on our way at this point. 

It is my understanding you are only speaking for your specific area and not implying anything on a regional basis. Solid. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

On pace for over 35" here.

See you are a dude who experiences legit rainfall. 

[Blizzard777]

3 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Just an ungodly blow torch of a month across all of Canada in January. Unprecedented warmth. Look at those +15F anomalies 

 

 

Yikes! 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It is my understanding you are only speaking for your specific area and not implying anything on a regional basis. Solid. 

Unless otherwise stated!   It's been very wet across all of western WA.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Told you this run was gonna get good...

[GHweatherChris]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

See you are a dude who experiences legit rainfall. 

The last 2 winters have been absolutely insane for rainfall here, until last year I had never measured more rain in Dec/Jan than Hoquiam, destroyed them 2 years in a row now.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS is about to deliver after day 11... pending many, many changes on future runs of course.  

 

[TT-SEA]

Model volatility continues... and I am showing the opposite trend on the 12Z run as I predicted last night when posting about the 00Z run.  

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Unless otherwise stated!   It's been very wet across all of western WA.  

Not the south Willamette Valley and we happen to be in the PNW too.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Not the south Willamette Valley and we happen to be in the PNW too.

Yes indeed... but I said western WA.   Not the south Willamette Valley.    Your dry weather does not mean our wet weather did not happen.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Unless otherwise stated!   It's been very wet across all of western WA.  

It was actually wet in NW Oregon in January. PTL! Salem had 8.50", not bad, not bad! Wettest January since 2012. 

[TT-SEA]

Valentines Day is the new MLK Day...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[TT-SEA]

The 12Z GFS allows a chunk of cold air to make it down to the PNW before the block drifts away.   The 00Z run had the block drifting away a little earlier.   Threading the needle on this run.

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It was actually wet in NW Oregon in January. PTL! Salem had 8.50", not bad, not bad! Wettest January since 2012. 

Was anybody else below normal for rainfall in Jan? I ask because it seems weird that we were over an inch below normal here and I am looking through ACIS and can’t find any stations even close. Maybe the weather station at KEUG is busted.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Was anybody else below normal for rainfall? I ask because it seems weird that we were over an inch below normal here and I am looking through ACIS and can’t find any stations even close. Maybe the weather station at KEUG is busted.

I know we have discussed this before... but I remember someone questioning the averages at EUG and not the gauge.    

[BLI snowman]

23 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Just an ungodly blow torch of a month across all of Canada in January. Unprecedented warmth. Look at those +15F anomalies 

 

 

 

The scary part is that that's against the pathetic 1991-2020 norms.

[TT-SEA]

Not much lowland snow on the 12Z GFS... but lots of cold air after day 11.  

[BLI snowman]

Forum meet-up in Toledo!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Not bad, but could still be a lot better.